[JSBBET]

I went 38-17 last week , and I am 10-4 this week. Here are tonight's picks:


7/20/11

1) DETROIT=SU

2) MINNESOTA=SU

3) CLEVELAND/MINNESOTA =O8.5

4) FLORIDA=SU

5) HOUSTON=SU

6) LOS ANGELES ANGELS=SU

I will update tomorrow morning with results and tomorrows picks.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Good luck.

[Powderguy]

I am on a good run in bases too but everytime i post something here, it loses. #3 already won for ya

[a4u2fear]

good luck

[JSBBET]

I went 4-2 last night:

7/20/11 RECORD
DET SU = L
MIN SU =W
CLE/MIN O8.5 = W
FLO SU = L
HOU SU = W
LAA SU = W

This puts me at 42-19 overall, and 14-6 for this week. Here are tonight's picks:

7/21/11
1) TOR SU
2) FLO SU
3) FLO/SD OVER 8
4) MINN SU
5) LAA SU

[blackbeSSt]

well i hate to say it, but as far as anyone is concerned your record stands at 4-2 as none of the others were posted.

but i wish you the best of luck and will keep an eye out for your posts

edit: also to justify the win/loss record, you need to let us know how much you are putting on each game. for all we know your 4-2 record has yielded a negative result.

edit 2: you have toronto on there twice for your picks today

[JSBBET]

Thanks for the Toronto catch, typo.

[JSBBET]

Hi Everyone,

Thanks for following.Just wanted to reply to blackbesst, thanks for the input. I understand my 42-19 record is meaningless to you guys because it wasn't posted before, but I am also not asking you guys to bet on this or buy anything either; I just wanted to give you guys a heads up that this is what I came in at record wise for the past couple weeks personally. So take a look and watch my picks from here on out because they are working. Time of course is the ultimate test as to whether or not what I created will continue to work.

In regards to what I put down on a bet, I actually don't bet. I majored in mathematics, specifically probability. Sports probability has been a project of mine. Everyone has different money management systems, so I leave it to you guys to know how much you should put down on each play. What I created is not a "system", it's not going to win "98%" of the time. I made 20 categories not based on specific players or individual statistics, and I look at each game every morning to determine if there is overwhelming evidence that shows one team having a high probability advantage. When I make a post on here with picks, I am simply stating the teams that have a VERY HIGH probability of winning. So just keep watching these picks and lets see if I am on to anything. Thanks for the input, I am always open to new ideas!

[blackbeSSt]

Hi Everyone, Thanks for following.Just wanted to reply to blackbesst, thanks for the input. I understand my 42-19 record is meaningless to you guys because it wasn't posted before, but I am also not asking you guys to bet on this or buy anything either; I just wanted to give you guys a heads up that this is what I came in at record wise for the past couple weeks personally. So take a look and watch my picks from here on out because they are working. Time of course is the ultimate test as to whether or not what I created will continue to work. In regards to what I put down on a bet, I actually don't bet. I majored in mathematics, specifically probability. Sports probability has been a project of mine. Everyone has different money management systems, so I leave it to you guys to know how much you should put down on each play. What I created is not a "system", it's not going to win "98%" of the time. I made 20 categories not based on specific players or individual statistics, and I look at each game every morning to determine if there is overwhelming evidence that shows one team having a high probability advantage. When I make a post on here with picks, I am simply stating the teams that have a VERY HIGH probability of winning. So just keep watching these picks and lets see if I am on to anything. Thanks for the input, I am always open to new ideas!

nah thats cool bro. at least you aren't air betting like some of the low lifes here

like i said i'll keep an eye out for your plays

[WolfpackChuck]

When I make a post on here with picks, I am simply stating the teams that have a VERY HIGH probability of winning

That's great and all. However, that's absolutely useless to anyone actually betting these games as we actually have to bet against a set moneyline. Whatever floats your boat though.

Let me give it a try: If the Yankees are playing at home against the Royals they have a high probability of winning. Ooooh yeah! That didn't even require a math major or running stats through a formula.

[JSBBET]

WolfpackChuck,

Did you come here yesterday and post the following four wins:

-Min s/u -114
-Hou s/u -113
-LAA s/u -135
-Min O8.5 -102

No you didn't , I did.I may not bet, but if you cant afford the money lines above then you probably should not be betting. None of those lines were high. If I were following your strategy (yankees vs. royals) I would have taken Cleveland over Minnesota and the Whitesox over the Royals yesterday, which would have both resulted in losses and would explain why you are searching for the picks of others. My picks are not based on the best team; in baseball even the best teams lose up to 60 times a year. My picks are based on situations that yield the highest probability. If the Yankees are playing the Royals and my data says the Royals have the higher probability in a particular game or situation, then I am picking the Royals.

So go ahead Wolfpack lets see you give it a try. In fact you can post your picks in this thread and I will post mine and lets see who has the better record and profitability at the end of next week.

[Ra77er]

_____--- --___-- -- BUT WAIT JUST A MINUTE SIR!!

Does your model use the odds in factoring in a play....or is it just a stats/probability model and you make a play regardless of price if your model says it's a play? I hope this makes sense.

[WolfpackChuck]

Your picks are 100% worthless if you are just posting teams with a high probability of winning. And that is exactly what you said you were doing. That's totally awesome that you picked 4 winners yesterday. Congratulations. But as a math major you won't be surprised that my jaw hasn't dropped due to such a tiny sample size.

Now if you want to change your tune and claim you are picking teams that will provide a positive expected value relative to the posted moneyline then that's completely different.

[JSBBET]

Hi Ra77er,

My picks are strictly based on a probability model. It is not based on the better team or who is favored in the moneyline, it is strictly based on situational probability. Today for instance I picked Minnesota who I believe is +144 (clearly not the favorite) but my categorical probability says that Minnesota has a more probable chance of winning. I dont make "lock picks" , nothing in betting is ever guaranteed, I'm simply giving info on who has the better chance based on my criteria which seems to work so far. I will address moneylines and odds right now in my post to Wolfpack.

[JSBBET]

Wolfpack,

I understand you guys are betting against moneylines and odds, and how those can greatly vary. My picks are still good indicators of probability though. What I mean by that is if you see one of my picks but you don't like the line (i.e. -170) then skip that game and instead make the pick that is only -110 or +144 (like Minnesota today). All of the picks I make have probability on their side based on a criteria that I have set. I have just as much confidence in a pick that's +105 vs -175. It is not blindly picking the best team. Like I said I am open to ideas, but for now I am just listing the teams that have what I believe to be overwhelming probability, you guys can decide which lines are not good for your investment. And the picks are not worthless, you have the lines and you see my selection for the day, pick and chose which lines you like.

[WolfpackChuck]

Unless you have some way of quantifying your probabilities then your picks are pretty useless. For example, if a team is -175 then that team needs to win that game 63.6% of the time to break even. Just posting that you think they have a high probability of winning is pointless, unless that team happens to be an underdog. And to that point, if you will be posting a bunch of underdogs (or even money plays for that matter) that you are claiming to have a high probability of winning then your system is flawed and it will be exposed.

As you may or may not know, this ain't Vegas's first rodeo.

[JSBBET]

Hi everyone,

Tough night last night, went 2-3.

7/21/11
1) TOR SU = W
2) FLO SU = L
3) FLO/SD OVER 8 = L (They scored 8 exactly, would have lost either way on U/O)
4) MINN SU = L
5) LAA SU = W

Here are today's picks:
7/22/11

1)CHC SU -150
2)NYY SU -160
3)SFO SU -128
4)ATL SU -115
5)FLO SU -125
6)PHI SU - 185

Note: CHC,NYY,and PHI are heavy favorites on the moneyline, if you want to avoid laying down that much I dont blame you, but they are solid picks. If you want to skip the high money lines then look at SFO,ATL, and FLO. These three picks are solid. Out of 20 categories SFO came back with 12 categories that registered with a 70% chance of winning or better. If you are a single game better only take SFO.

[crustyme]

another made up record.... another wannabe tout.

so sick of these aholes.

[hadarty]

Good luck for today plays.