[crustyme]

16 days of winning.

[unluckysob]

Back in the 80s before post up internet I go 2-19 one saturday on college baskets at $500. a game. I had won about $10,000 during football season---I was one depressed, sick ****.

[Tech N9ne]

I will give you winner l for tonight to get you back on track. Take the marlins ml. Unload on it

[Slainte]

You are lucky with just 2 days, sometimes the profit vanishes for less than 2 hours.

[G's pks]

Watch this guys threads always end in Fantasy...he is going to come back and say he went 10-0 today or something silly...

[icancount2one]

It's just as possible to go 9 - 26 in a 35 play month as it is in a 35 play day. Statnerd is just speeding up the process of swings and probably has a very good idea of where he actually stands as a capper. Everyone who uses modeling or multitables poker understands this, but most don't post about it.

Playing 2 or 3 plays a week in football, one month you'll feel like a gambling god, the next like a degenerate loser. Also it's harder for most people to keep their discipline and not chase. If you can get a math edge and get volume, you're miles ahead of someone who can do good game analysis.

[statnerds]

that's gambling for you.. that's usually how it works.. i bet about 15 games a day and many a times i'd have 21 straight winning days of going 8-7, 8-6, 9-8, 8-7.... etc.. and slowly, i'd be up a decent amount.. and then.... bam......... 3 straight days of 2-13, and what do you know... i am now down on the month.. all that work for nothing. in my 30 yrs of gambling, i'd say this has happened to me about 57 times.. you can't avoid this. i once won 84 out of 88 days.. and i once had 42 out of 44 losing day in a row.. some days you just can't lose... and some day you just can't win if your life depended on it. you need thick skin to be in this business. it's not for everyone.

all i can say is good luck and just hang in there.. oh yeah.. and make sure you don't run out of money if you go through bad steaks...

NICK-AAAAAAAAYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I was hoping I would hear from someone with their head on straight. I lost 22 straight before, so this little hiccup is nothing. Only way to stay in the game is Money Management. These fukkin kids don't get it, they think anything under 60% is terrible and anything less than 5% of BR on a game is not worth their time.

30 years Nicky? Damn. Only at 19 years myself. Your post should be sent to every new member at SBR cause it is da truth. Good streaks, bad streaks and you need the thick skin. I still get pissed at losing days, but that last for about 30 seconds. But this is no joke. If you want to do this long term, need a plan, an edge and to always bet the best NUMBER, fukk favorites and dogs. It is all about the number and you are one of the people that taught me that Nick-aaaayyyyyyyy!!!!

Best way to break a streak is bet both sides to a game, take the juice as penalty

I bet both sides of 2 games today, both in MLB. Made 1.68% on one and 2.5467% on the other.

Fukkin 1-2 in soccer. Strap up boys, this could be a long losing spell.

[pacers101]

I feel ya. i'm 0-11 past 2 days. just after a withdraw too. always happens after a withdraw for me. hopefully mls will draw like usual tomorrow and get me out of this funk.

[statnerds]

2-4 yesterday. when will the bleeding stop?

Who cares?

My BR and MM are built for times like this

[G's pks]

2-4 yesterday. when will the bleeding stop?

Who cares?

My BR and MM are built for times like this

yes...just keep reloading and be quiet...

[jagaf22]

Wait until Football! Where the real sharps thrive.

[durito]

70+ plays in a day, no way you are making money consistently

Yep. Thats not nearly enough for a fall weekend.

[statnerds]

Yep. Thats not nearly enough for a fall weekend.

You are my hero. And if you would be so kind to as indulge me.

Do I have a losing problem, or a volume problem?

Risked: $14,969.75
Won: $15,202.50

Profit: $232.76

Without getting into to much boring detail, well over 300 soccer plays there. Is my shitty 1.55% ROI horrible and not worth pursuing, or is it a matter of volume and bet size?

The max I go on Futbol is 1% and the lowest I go is .25% of my BR. Ah, the chicken or the egg question. I am developing and tracking what I believe to be a profitable edge, but once I get enough data to bet more, that edge might be gone. Damn market efficiency.

I will not think less of you if you choose to not bother with a reply. I will think even more of you if you hit me with one of your patented one line zingers.

[wantitall4moi]

Anyone that knows any streak shouldnt be gambling to make money. because theyre just in it for fun or the action. if youre seriously trying to make money gambling then you shouldnt even really know wins and losses just how much money you have or dont have when you are supposed to take a draw.

Wins and losses and percentages were all invented by tout scum to try and show people how 'good' they were doing, when just like this guy they all could really go 75% but you could be broke with one of their famous all in plays.

[durito]

You are my hero. And if you would be so kind to as indulge me.

Do I have a losing problem, or a volume problem?

Risked: $14,969.75
Won: $15,202.50

Profit: $232.76

Without getting into to much boring detail, well over 300 soccer plays there. Is my shitty 1.55% ROI horrible and not worth pursuing, or is it a matter of volume and bet size?

The max I go on Futbol is 1% and the lowest I go is .25% of my BR. Ah, the chicken or the egg question. I am developing and tracking what I believe to be a profitable edge, but once I get enough data to bet more, that edge might be gone. Damn market efficiency.

I will not think less of you if you choose to not bother with a reply. I will think even more of you if you hit me with one of your patented one line zingers.

Could just be variance. With a lot of volume 1.5% isn´t terrible, most people shoot for around 3%.

I am sitting at less than 1% roi on the year. Last year I was at 1% after july too and finished at 4%, so hoping to get it going again.

[DwightShrute]

I went 1-16 once ( no laughing fukkers). Ican sympathize surew

[Demonata]

Way too many plays and especially with a sport that can have ties. I hate betting on sports that can tie.

[Vegas_bond]

With Soccer, you should follow totals only.

[vividjohn45]

35 events in two days is nothing if most of them are +ev.

35 bets in 2 days. here is what the expected value looks like here.


-------------

how can a guy even find 35 wagers in two days. lol. guess you mite have to mix in some beaver ball.





^
^
now we are talking positive expectation. ++++++


----------------

pure + expectated Beaver Ball.

[vividjohn45]

35 wagers in 2 days another look at postive expectation and beaver ball.






seriously. why don't u just parlay it. its ezier. for many wagers.

ex. 7.22.11. wash ml, brew ml, and rockies ml. paid out 12:1. i know it was my only wager today.

marcum is now 9-3, +120 washington is better team then sorry dodgers, +110 and cook. is the alltime win leader for colorado 70 wins. today at +166. and yes the rockies can hit the ball.

my two legs are in colo and brews, and dodge game going late 10:30 vegas time. i'm 2 miles from strip. by Bellagio tourists spending cash. busy. and top of ninth washington hits a grand slam wins third leg. 7-2. cherry on top.


yeah. ok. i admit i'm a lucky f.uk, but Vegas is hot right now. and good dogs exist.

anyway. this week i hit 2 8 of 10 spots on a 4 card keno. 8/10 pays 1000 to 1. my perspective is the bigger jackpot hit, rather then 35 wagers to loss my ass.

perspective bro.
it helps.

god strike me dead if the words above are not 100% true.
gl.

[wantitall4moi]

Anyone that thinks ANY number of plays, let alone 35 in 2 days is too much should stop gambling right now. At least if they are made with the right approach. Which maybe these werent. But regardless when there is a chance to make money you take very single opportunity you have to do it.

Spot betting or playing only the 'best' games is as much a crock of shit as betting the board. All you might do that way is make a little bit here or there, but eventually you'll screw up and lose it all. if one guy bets 5000 times a year and another bets 50 times a year the profit expectation isnt determined by who bets the fewest amount of times. or even who bets the 'better' games. What determines the profit is who got the best return on their winners.

[statnerds]

Could just be variance. With a lot of volume 1.5% isn´t terrible, most people shoot for around 3%.

I am sitting at less than 1% roi on the year. Last year I was at 1% after july too and finished at 4%, so hoping to get it going again.

No insults? Damn. Truly though I appreciate your time and response.

It is funny cause we are discussing the volume, but the numbers I listed above are about 3+ months. I'll be playing that many per month in the Autumn. So could most likely be variance. Never hurts to get a confidence boost from a poster I respect.

I was shooting for about 3%. It was extremely sobering when I finally got educated enough to sit down and figure a percentage that would be realistic. So I read as much as I could from the 1% of sharp/intelligent people on SBR that I separated from the 99% shit talkers and fakers. When you are talking to make $15,000/yr you would need to have put $500,000 in play it is a major wake up call. And who the fukk could live off $15K? That was just a random amount to illustrate the reality of sports investing. I don't see how anyone can approach that total without volume. Unless, of course, your BR is already $15K or more. Still talking nearly 25 plays per wk at 2.5% BR/play.

Anyway, thanks again Durito. Good luck the rest of this year. Here is to hoping you hit that 4% mark again.

[statnerds]

A perfect Wednesday night in futbol

Six plays

Six losses

[Scottish]

Damn unlucky, brutal run dude.

[statnerds]

won 24 cents on futbol yesterday.

[Capybara]

Eventually those bad runs will hit everyone, and YES, you should be fukkin thrilled you didn't chase and end up down what you were up.

[MrXYZ]

No insults? Damn. Truly though I appreciate your time and response.

It is funny cause we are discussing the volume, but the numbers I listed above are about 3+ months. I'll be playing that many per month in the Autumn. So could most likely be variance. Never hurts to get a confidence boost from a poster I respect.

I was shooting for about 3%. It was extremely sobering when I finally got educated enough to sit down and figure a percentage that would be realistic. So I read as much as I could from the 1% of sharp/intelligent people on SBR that I separated from the 99% shit talkers and fakers. When you are talking to make $15,000/yr you would need to have put $500,000 in play it is a major wake up call. And who the fukk could live off $15K? That was just a random amount to illustrate the reality of sports investing. I don't see how anyone can approach that total without volume. Unless, of course, your BR is already $15K or more. Still talking nearly 25 plays per wk at 2.5% BR/play.

Anyway, thanks again Durito. Good luck the rest of this year. Here is to hoping you hit that 4% mark again.

You've nailed it, this should be compulsory reading for newbies. I get asked for advice & try to explain to people if they try to make $500 a week sports betting off their $10k bankroll they'll be broke in less than a year but they usually get pissed off.

Sorry about your losing streak, I hope you get back to cashing winners soon.

[ebbearsfb1]

wow

[statnerds]

You've nailed it, this should be compulsory reading for newbies. I get asked for advice & try to explain to people if they try to make $500 a week sports betting off their $10k bankroll they'll be broke in less than a year but they usually get pissed off.

Sorry about your losing streak, I hope you get back to cashing winners soon.

I thank you sir. Lots of hard headed folks in this game.

So happy July ended, went 147-176-8. But now it is August.

1-5 today.

Fukk

[sdiamond8065]

sit on the sidelines for a month

[MTek]

thats alot of bets
Be thankful ur still in the game

[statnerds]

thats alot of bets
Be thankful ur still in the game

But it really isn't a lot of bets. The only way to increase profits is to increase volume, without doing so to the detriment of any edge I may have.

Or I could increase my Unit size and when a streak like this came, as they always will, I would be on tilt.

Going to check my record for May and June compared to July. Maybe my edge is gone due to the evolution of the market or this truly is Variance.

Only 5 soccer plays today.

Starting to drag on my baseball winnings.

[statnerds]

64 plays today and absolutely nervous as shit

But did go back and pull my record

prior to July 17th
859-735-14

Since July 17th
92-146-6

So which one is more likely variance?

53% over 1,631 matches

37% over 244 matches

[G's pks]

sit on the sidelines for a month

[statnerds]

31-29-2 on Saturday.

Only 36 plays Sunday.