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Ok, just try to exercise some bankroll management and keep your exposure as low as possible. Just remember that trying to flaunt a 150k salary and being a big time bettor does not give you much respect or credibility on the internet so don't be suprised if people continue to contend you.
Originally Posted by Br0nxer
I hit about 65-70% after I switched to my new strategy of gambling during my last 40-50 bets this year, yet I will not hit 50% for next year ???
thanks for the laughs junior
for sure man
I don't really have any expectations to be honest with you. If it doesn't work out, it doesn't work out
Good approach, and prove the doubters wrong.
The key word is last 40-50 bets. Those 40-50 bets could very well be 30% next time.
cannot even attempt to be a pro with Pinnacle and Matchbook accounts
You mean without? I agree. Betfair is huge also to understand market strength
I guess you should be fine then.. Last 10 matchups are more than enough to be able to quantify memphis' chance of winning the series..
please make a thread next year and i will tail you..
not only were they 5-5 last 10 matchups, they were 2-2 this year, Memphis finished the season on an unbelievable tear their last 60 games or so and memphis is also a terrific matchup against San Antonio (because Memphis had the bigs to dominate inside and the wing defenders to contain San Antonio's 3 point shooters)
45% chance of winning at +340so you had an edge of about 98% on this wager
News flash pal most professional players are happy to find a 2% edge. The NBA is a highly efficient market and a line of +340 has a push rate at 22.73%, there is absolutely no way that this wager had a 45% chance of winning and the market did not catch it and put the books out of business for such a brutal mistake.
LAY OFF THE ICE BRAH!!!
see when you say that, you make it sound like it's about luck. Luck has nothing to do with it...you're either a good gambler or you're not
I had an incredible winning percentage the last 50 games of the season because I made excellent picks based on logical analysis. Why would I stop winning if I'm making good picks??
Hell even if none of breaks went my way (which they did), I would have still won say 50-55% of my bets because the majority of my picks were covered by a very large margin
Using jjgold as a example the average income is so small that you need a $300 a month paid poster job.
stop looking at mathematics and evaluate the matchup
this 1-8 matchup was the most even 1-8 series in the history of the NBA. Memphis went 38-22 their last 60 games (an incredible 63% winning percentage for an 8 seed), they also played very well at times against the elite teams and they played extremely well all season vs San Antonio splitting 4 games
I knew Memphis had a great chance to win this series pretty much from the beginning. San Antonio is a very small team inside and their offense is highly predicated on 3 point shooters. Well guess what??? Memphis is a very good interior team with 2 bigtime inside scorers and several terrific wing defenders
that's what I mean by logical analysis
Brah,
Sharp money moves lines. The market suggested that the bet had a 20% chance of winning minus the bookies vig, you believe that it had a 45% chance of winning. Unless you were the only player sharp enough to realize that the line was this grossly mis-priced you would have noticed rapid line movement as the line slid from +340 all the way down to +110. Every player in town would have been crushing that line and than steam chasers would have been jumping on the band wagon. The books would have gotten crushed here and like they always do would have cancelled all wagers and cite gross line error.
If the market doesn't agree with your price evaluation by the time the line closes you are wrong!!!
you got lucky, it happens. don´t quit your day job.
I don't give a sht about the market
I'm smarter than the market - it's why I went 18-4 in the NBA playoffs. End of story
Seriously dude, how many times are you going to make these threads? You've already been through this before on here. Twice.
Remember the NFL season and your locks? You started a thread just like you did yesterday asking which books took big bets because you were such a big gambler. And of course you started to post plays. The kind of ones with titles like "you're an idiot if you don't take this under". Game goes over... brahma forgets the thread
Finally you had enough and decided you were quitting gambling. I don't blame you because posters were literally calling you the Fade Machine in your threads. http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-handic...-gambling.html
But then you come back in April to start fresh and make a thread identical to this one now. Same thing: Ask advice but really you just wanted to brag about your supposed gambling superiority. Of course as predicted, you started to post NBA plays and again turned into the losing square who busted out.
Yet now you're back. So... maybe stop spamming the forum and wasting the time of those people who don't realise that this is your little schtick on here? They're trying to give you great advice but you of course know it all already. If you actually listened to it, you'd stop going broke and having to run away.
Oh and congrats on your great NBA playoff run when you stopped posting plays and disappeared. Amazing how that happens!
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God your ignorant
Seriously dude, how many times are you going to make these threads? You've already been through this before on here. Twice.
Remember the NFL season and your locks? You started a thread just like you did yesterday asking which books took big bets because you were such a big gambler. And of course you started to post plays. The kind of ones with titles like "you're an idiot if you don't take this under". Game goes over... brahma forgets the thread
Finally you had enough and decided you were quitting gambling. I don't blame you because posters were literally calling you the Fade Machine in your threads. http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-handic...-gambling.html
But then you come back in April to start fresh and make a thread identical to this one now. Same thing: Ask advice but really you just wanted to brag about your supposed gambling superiority. Of course as predicted, you started to post NBA plays and again turned into the losing square who busted out.
Yet now you're back. So... maybe stop spamming the forum and wasting the time of those people who don't realise that this is your little schtick on here? They're trying to give you great advice but you of course know it all already. If you actually listened to it, you'd stop going broke and having to run away.
Oh and congrats on your great NBA playoff run when you stopped posting plays and disappeared. Amazing how that happens!
And owned
You can always count on Shari91 to come in and bitch slap these clowns
Become A Pro!
doubt anyone on this site makes more than 100k
the vast majority break even
I only perused this thread but it was what one would expect.
My only 'job' for about 12 years was gambling. Primarily sports, but some poker mixed in when it got hot for a few years.
So I can see that not a single person in this thread relied on sports betting or gambling in general to actually pay their bills.
But short answer. If you are looking at your 'pay' (what you take out while also trying to build your bankroll) you'll be able to maybe take out 30-40% of your bankroll if you are moderately successful. So if you have a 100K bankroll, do fairly well, and try to add 40-50% to your bankroll then that is about the limit. But the more you add the more you get 'paid' the next year. So it all has synergy. But if you are looking at sheer profits and never take any money out of your bankroll you should be able to triple your bankroll in a year without a lot of risk involved.
Guys talking hitting 60-70% for 40 or 50 plays are basically clueless. Because that isnt 'professional' gambling. That is a lucky streak of bets made with money you got from a 'real' job. Also anyone who has more than 10% of their bankroll/worth in action at one time doesnt know what they are talking about either. At least if they dont have any other source of income beyond the money they make from gambling.
Basic strategy is to grind out a profit with as little risk as possible. Make as many bets as you can at the least amount of hold you can find. Arbitraging/scalping is the most obvious way. Playing leads and buying back middles (with reduced holds) is another. If you can put 5 million in action a year and get just a 1% overall return on that youll have a +50000. With a 100K bankroll you should be looking at a 2-3% return on action, which is going to be 100-150K 'profit' which you will have to determine what you take out for yourself and what you leave in to keep your bankroll static or growing.
You have to understand something kiddo. It might be working now allowing you to hit 65%. But eventually throwing darts at helmet pictures strategy will eventually stop working. Something to keep in mind.
*700k and pure profit of course
not to pile on brahma bull, but 140k is not a "high paying sales job." Set your sites a little higher and maybe spend a little more time listening and a little less time making bold statements that point to your immaturity.
Eleventy kajillion doll hairs and pipty 2 cents
Brahma, if you are hitting over 55% after 1000 plays you should seriously consider turning Pro. However, if you're making less than 100 plays a year it would be very difficult to do. How many plays do you make a day? week? month? or year? Also, here's the answer to the half point question that someone asked you earlier. http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tool...nt-calculator/
Don't waste your time. This kid has no hope of going pro. If anything his only hope is to become a tout but buries himself repeatedly with the losers he posts.
If you're bored go back and read through his posts. Or save your time and just look at the ones from when he first joined in December. He starts an NBA thread to track his plays and admits that although he's new to gambling, his goal is to hit 66%. He bumps his empty thread an hour later because no one had given him any attention. The plays go 3-6 and the thread is dead before it begins.
Then he apologises to someone in another thread for the slow reply as he was working on a class presentation but he found a line that was "tremendous" so he was putting a whopping $300 on it. Massive play for such a tremendous line. A few weeks later he made the "I'm quitting gambling" thread I posted above. Returns in April and starts the same thread as this one which is just his way of attempting to brag about plays he supposedly hit when he disappeared from the forum. He also made a duplicate of the where can I get big bets down thread he started yesterday in S&I. Posts NBA plays, goes busto and leaves. Now he's back claiming he went 18-4 on his break from SBR during the NBA playoffs and has gambling all figured out. Who needs math? Just pick winners.
Just another attention deprived kiddie on summer break from school.
Last edited by shari91; 07-11-11 at 04:06 PM.
Sharps make millions a year!!!!WTF is 100-200k
Bull117 save your money and most importantly your time because you will never ever become a sharp!!!!These guys have connections to info that you will never get your hands on.Stick to selling what ever u sell and end this thread now!!!!!
oh ya..... these guys bet with books that me and you don't have access to.
No offence, but go to the handicappers' forum, and read, and read. Learn about variance, and significance. Frankly, that sample size tells you nothing. Even if it did, your hit rate is meaningless. What's your RoI? Your z-score?
You're kinda fishing in the dark. Get a good grounding on the basics first, it'll save you a packet in the longrun.
Last edited by HeeeHAWWWW; 07-11-11 at 07:18 PM.
Funny how he disappeared after Shari showed who exactly he was.
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