[brahmabull117]

Not good enough if you're talking about a guy that's making money by picking winners rather than trading. More like the top 0.5%

all u need to do to make money in gambling is win about 55-60% of the time


u are saying that only 0.5% of gamblers can consistently win 55% of the time?

[brahmabull117]

bump

[thekid667]

I would stick with sales bud.

[brahmabull117]

I would stick with sales bud.

I wouldn't switch to being a pro gambler unless I was making 150-200 grand for a couple years and know it would keep going




I like my job but I hate working so many hours and I hate the fact that I only get 7 days of vacation time a year. My dream has always to have something where I make a lot of money but I set my own schedule

[Fa11en]

No offense, but the nature of your posts indicate that you do not have the capacity to understand what is required to be a successful gambler. Strictly handicapping and picking a decent percentage will not get you very far. Do you have any models or spreadsheets in place? In order to be successful you would also need pinnacle and BetFair access. The time taken and money lost just to get your foot in the door would be significant if you are eyeing 6 figures. To safely aquire 6 figures with a successful model, you need to of built a roll to atleast 500k or work as part of a syndicate.

[brahmabull117]

No offense, but the nature of your posts indicate that you do not have the capacity to understand what is required to be a successful gambler. Strictly handicapping and picking a decent percentage will not get you very far. Do you have any models or spreadsheets in place? In order to be successful you would also need pinnacle and betfair access. The time taken and money lost just to get your foot in the door would be significant if you are eyeing 6 figures. To safely aquire 6 figures with a successful model, you need to of built a roll to atleast 500k or work as part of a syndicate.

what's wrong with just consistently picking winners??? I played basketball and football this year and I was winning at about a 61% clip overall



hell, I went something like 18-4 in the NBA playoffs...overall I made about 20 grand this year.



in terms of needing a 500 grand bankroll to make six figures?? that is just complete nonsense there. You can turn 50 K into 150 k over the course of a year if u just win at about 57% of ur bets



if u have a 500 k bankroll, you should be making millions

[Vegas_bond]

The sky is the limit for a good gambler.

[Fa11en]

Well you have been on the positive side of variance in a small sample size. The pro gamblers I am familiar with bet less than a unit and frequently make 50 bets a day. Thats the only success I have seen over the long run.

[brahmabull117]

Well you have been on the positive side of variance in a small sample size. The pro gamblers I am familiar with bet less than a unit and frequently make 50 bets a day. Thats the only success I have seen over the long run.

making 50 bets a day is retarded



during the football season, u might have 3 games every week where you can find tremendous value (IE a game where the expected outcome in your opinion strongly differs from the line set)


the reason I was so succesful - I was winning near 65%+ towards the end of the season was because I put my daily betting action on 1 or 2 games that I thought were a lock daily


my plan is keep doing my research and keep finding those hidden gems with tremendous value and put all my daily money (let's say 2% of my bankroll) on that game

[durito]

if you are hitting 55-60% at -110 in big markets, you should be making millions not 6 figures

[durito]

making 50 bets a day is retarded

no, it´s not.

[brahmabull117]

no, it´s not.

yea it is



it's impossible to find 10 matchups a day that have tremendous value, much less 50



that's the reason why most of this forum never makes money. You feel the need to bet on every game so you bet on a bunch of garbage matchups with little hope of winning

[RudyRuetigger]

If you aren't making 80k a year, you can find a better "normal" job

[durito]

yea it is



it's impossible to find 10 matchups a day that have tremendous value, much less 50



that's the reason why most of this forum never makes money. You feel the need to bet on every game so you bet on a bunch of garbage matchups with little hope of winning

if you already know everything, why are you asking. i don´t know a single pro that would have a problem with making 50 wagers in a day if they came across that many.

[greva]

yea it is



it's impossible to find 10 matchups a day that have tremendous value, much less 50



that's the reason why most of this forum never makes money. You feel the need to bet on every game so you bet on a bunch of garbage matchups with little hope of winning

Tremendous value??

How much value you find on average?

Do you think the pros bet 50 games a day to get action??

[brahmabull117]

If you aren't making 80k a year, you can find a better "normal" job

I make nearly twice that much right now in my normal job brah




still, I would take a paycut if I could consistently make 100 k a year sports gambling. That ability to work whenever you want is invaluable to me

[Fa11en]

The scenerio you described brahma is not that of a pro "pro gambler". If you bet strictly your handicapped picks and it works out for a small sample size than good for you. 2 Units is fine but with such a small amount of bets made, you are victim to swings. Think of the best gamblers as poker grinders- they play as many tables as possible to minimize the variance. Same applies for many pro gamblers who have effective models.

[brahmabull117]

Tremendous value??

How much value you find on average?

Do you think the pros bet 50 games a day to get action??

tremendous value basically means a game where the line is wildly different than what you believe the expected outcome will be



perfect example would be that san antonio and memphis series. The line was about +350 favorites on San Antonio...yet the spurs split the season series with Memphis (and ended up losing the playoff series)



stuff like that is where you can make a lot of money. Trying to consistently be right on very difficult matchups/lots of matchups a day is just stupid because u never win that way

[brahmabull117]

The scenerio you described brahma is not that of a pro "pro gambler". If you bet strictly your handicapped picks and it works out for a small sample size than good for you. 2 Units is fine but with such a small amount of bets made, you are victim to swings. Think of the best gamblers as poker grinders- they play as many tables as possible to minimize the variance. Same applies for many pro gamblers who have effective models.

I feel the same way about gambling that I do about stocks



if u have tons and tons of stocks, you are never gonna make any money - sure u minimize the risk, but you also minimize all reward/opportunity. You are never gonna be able to find 20 stocks that will outperform expectations just like you will never find 20 games that will outperform expectations



What I do is I analyze all the games on any particular day and try to find all the matchups where my expected outcome is vastly different than the line set by Vegas. That's how you make money


I mean I went 18-4 in the NBA playoffs using this strategy because I was only betting on like 1 or 2 games a day that were (in my opinion) locks

[Fa11en]

And that is perfectly fine, what model do you use to determine value? Do you have spreadsheets?

[sharpcat]

tremendous value basically means a game where the line is wildly different than what you believe the expected outcome will be



perfect example would be that san antonio and memphis series. The line was about +350 favorites on San Antonio...yet the spurs split the season series with Memphis (and ended up losing the playoff series)



stuff like that is where you can make a lot of money. Trying to consistently be right on very difficult matchups/lots of matchups a day is just stupid because u never win that way

You have no clue what you are talking about

[Fa11en]

Most pro gamblers don't prefer to take the high risk/high reward approach that you do. Or Brockers for that matter. Ive seen gamblers have an amazing first 2k bets and awful next 2k bets.

[brahmabull117]

And that is perfectly fine, what model do you use to determine value? Do you have spreadsheets?

No


I look at previous history between the 2 teams, how both teams are playing recently and how they matchup together



the best way to find value is to find a team that is on an absolute tear facing a team that is really struggling. For example, I put down a lot of money late season on the Knicks - 5 vs the Nets. Why?? The nets were seemingly getting blown out of the building the 6 or 7 games previous to that one and the knicks were playing terrific basketball. Knicks ended up winning by 23



Same thing with the Nuggets facing Golden State. Denver were blowing out a bunch of bad teams at home and Golden State also showed a propensity to get blown out on the road - Denver ended up winning by about 24

[brahmabull117]

Most pro gamblers don't prefer to take the high risk/high reward approach that you do. Or Brockers for that matter. Ive seen gamblers have an amazing first 2k bets and awful next 2k bets.

You have no clue what you are talking about

I used the traditional approach of "Bet on a lot of games to minimize risk" my first several months of gambling with terrible results. I was winning about 49-51% of the games but I was getting killed due to the juice



I switched to my current strategy and finished the season on an unbelievable hot streak



I think my last 30 games in the NBA, I won about 23 of them (what is that?? 75% winning percentage?)



I realize this was a hot streak because I won about 5 games that could have gone either way - but the majority of the other victories were resounding wins/covers where the game played out exactly like I thought they would. So take away the luck in that scenario and I would have still won about 55-60% of those games

[Fa11en]

Okay, the modality you are describing is someone who subjectively handicaps games and then line shops for best price. This is perfectly fine and I'm not criticizing you for it but it does not constitute a professional gambler as it is subject to variance. Do you know how many cents a point is worth? On spread or total?

[brahmabull117]

Okay, the modality you are describing is someone who subjectively handicaps games and then line shops for best price. This is perfectly fine and I'm not criticizing you for it but it does not constitute a professional gambler as it is subject to variance.

I guess I would be a pro gambler in only the amount of money I am making



and no I don't know the answer to your question

[Br0nxer]

Dont even worry about it pal. You will never be in this position in your life. Any time u spend worrying about this will be time you will never get back. Catch my drift kid

[brahmabull117]

Dont even worry about it pal. You will never be in this position in your life. Any time u spend worrying about this will be time you will never get back. Catch my drift kid

so just because you suck at gambling means I will to???



I'll make a thread with all my picks next year, If I don't hit at least 57%, I will never post on this site again


I expect to hit 60% BTW

[Fa11en]

So be very happy that you are currently a winning recreational gambler and have a decent job to support it. To dedicate the time and energy to dismiss a profession a attempt working from home to pursue making money betting sports would not work out well for you. I'm not saying you aren't capable but using your methodology would not be successful in the long run, especially if you cannot determine the price of points ect...

[jjgold]

No offense, but the nature of your posts indicate that you do not have the capacity to understand what is required to be a successful gambler. Strictly handicapping and picking a decent percentage will not get you very far. Do you have any models or spreadsheets in place? In order to be successful you would also need pinnacle and BetFair access. The time taken and money lost just to get your foot in the door would be significant if you are eyeing 6 figures. To safely aquire 6 figures with a successful model, you need to of built a roll to atleast 500k or work as part of a syndicate.

BANG

[greva]

tremendous value basically means a game where the line is wildly different than what you believe the expected outcome will be



perfect example would be that san antonio and memphis series. The line was about +350 favorites on San Antonio...yet the spurs split the season series with Memphis (and ended up losing the playoff series)



stuff like that is where you can make a lot of money. Trying to consistently be right on very difficult matchups/lots of matchups a day is just stupid because u never win that way

How would you go about quantifying your believes on the expected outcome??

What were the chances that memphis would take the playoff series in your oppinion??

[vyomguy]

stick to your job and make side income through sports.....just betting sports full-time is for losers who have no real life jobs or skills.

[Br0nxer]

No offense kid but you need a reality check. Post all your plays for one year. You will not hit 60%. You will not hit 57%. You will not hit 53%. You will not hit 50%. I would be shocked if you hit 47%. Get back to the grind of sales. Suits you better chief.

[brahmabull117]

So be very happy that you are currently a winning recreational gambler and have a decent job to support it. To dedicate the time and energy to dismiss a profession a attempt working from home to pursue making money betting sports would not work out well for you. I'm not saying you aren't capable but using your methodology would not be successful in the long run, especially if you cannot determine the price of points ect...

I'm not gonna quit my job unless I can make six figures in gambling for a couple years


I'm gonna bet much larger amounts next year to hopefully win way more


Worst case scenario is It doesn't work out and I will go back to my high paying sales career

[brahmabull117]

How would you go about quantifying your believes on the expected outcome??

What were the chances that memphis would take the playoff series in your oppinion??

45 to 50 percent considering the teams were 5-5 last 10 matchups and san antonio had homefield



Which is a marvelous value at plus 340 or whatever it was