[bobbyk1133]

Yeah, guys like me or maybe 2-3 others IN SEASON give good info. I give good info all year, but beating the NFL is like trying to hammer a hard prick thru drywall... It ain't gonna happen. The NFL's best prospects are in studying totals, IMO.

it all starts/ends with value lines and shopping them hard. That's REALLY where having a bigger roll helps, if you have it.

The NFL can be beat and if I didn't think so it wouldn't be my main sport of focus. It's interesting that you say totals are the best bet when in fact they jumped the shark last season. Tried and true methods that involve proven strategies all went out the window last year. Average lines for totals jumped 3-4 points and overs continued to hit at an unprecedented rate despite weather, playoffs, etc etc.

The spread is sharp, but it's not as sharp as people say they are. I do agree with your last statement though. Betting overnight lines and finding the best numbers on Monday are absolutely essential for value. If you haven't capped the coming weekend before the previous MNF game has kicked off yet, then you don't know what you're doing. For the most part, dogs are games you can bet on since the squares give you a more favorable number late in the week--although you have to know which dogs to wait on and which to jump. A lot of times undervalued dogs get a great number on the opening line and if you don't jump it the sharps will make it disappear quickly.

The most important rule to handicapping is Money Management. Bet a certain amount per week, don't dump your entire bankroll on a game or weekend.

Money management is VERY important, but 5% of your bankroll is where you should top out. If you are betting up to 25% on a single game you'll be bankrupt before the season is done.

[bobbyk1133]

The key to NFL betting is to study the projected wins of each team before season starts. Then from that list pick the teams who are projected to win 10 games or more. Then identify the 10 games or more they would most likely going to win and the games they will most likely lose. Then when the lines come out each week do your due diligence and bet accordingly.

Great point. In reality you should develop your own power rankings (ESPN power rankings are grossly flawed) and that's where you'll find your first real edge on the books. Season win total lines are a great guide to how the books are handicapping these teams and it will be reflected in the early week spreads. It takes about a month for everyone (including the books) to figure out just what these teams are about, so there is a ton of value to be had in the 1st 4 weeks. Now this is much easier said than done though.

But if your approach is good and you can figure it out by week 4, you have a GREAT chance to be ahead of the curve for the rest of the season.

My 2 cents.

[lakerboy]

wrong

alright then. send us your picks this year. if you are gonna bet 20 games all year and finish with a 12-8 record and claim you beat the nfl then dont bother.

[sweetjones55]

No one beats nfl spreads.

Got to disagree as well. At the very least we know that Billy Walters definitely does beat NFL lines. Also, Riggs has killed the NFL for two years straight tracking all of his plays here on SBR. He has a huge sample of 600 plays so it's most likely not variance. There are always going to be a select few handicappers that are better than the linesmakers. Saying "Very few beat nfl spreads", I would agree with that.

[lakerboy]

Got to disagree as well. At the very least we know that Billy Walters definitely does beat NFL lines. Also, Riggs has killed the NFL for two years straight tracking all of his plays here on SBR. He has a huge sample of 600 plays so it's most likely not variance. There are always going to be a select few handicappers that are better than the linesmakers. Saying "Very few beat nfl spreads", I would agree with that.

600 plays is nothing. is riggs gonna stop gambling after that? winning two years in a row isnt a big deal sj. i dont understand why you dont get that considering most guys will gamble for decades. i won in the nfl last year as well and the two years before that. i lost 3 years in a row before that. books make more money on nfl spreads than any other american sport. thats good enough to say that no one beats nfl spreads. a few guys on a good run means little really.

[sweetjones55]

600 plays is nothing. is riggs gonna stop gambling after that? winning two years in a row isnt a big deal sj. i dont understand why you dont get that considering most guys will gamble for decades. i won in the nfl last year as well and the two years before that. i lost 3 years in a row before that. books make more money on nfl spreads than any other american sport. thats good enough to say that no one beats nfl spreads. a few guys on a good run means little really.

The odds of doing what Riggs did in the NFL the last two years is astronomical. Statistically speaking, you have a better chance of hitting the lottery than doing what Riggs has done in the NFL. He has had an edge.

I do completely agree with you that NFL by FAR is the hardest sport for money to be made in. But to say that "No one" can beat the sport is off.

[Fishhead]

54.3% on 3100+ plays

Money and trophies were the rewards.

[crustyme]

only thing you need to know is, if brock, jj amd lang are on the same side, hammer the other side.

[SpreadSniper]

My suggestion would be to focus on 1 division at a time. Being a Ravens fan I have intimate knowledge of all teams AFCN. Division games I have circled on the calendar are usually the ones I bet heaviest on as I feel I am afforded the greatest edge. I have slowly but surely, year by year studied up on various divisions I have some sort of interest in. You begin to recognize key matchups, glaring weaknesses and are more able to confidentally lay your wagers.
Having TOO MUCH knowledge can be a detriment because you tend to become narrow minded. eg) "There's no way the Steelers dont beat the Raiders"
Always remeber - anything can happen on any given Sunday.

P.S - if you didn't see an edge in last years SuperBowl you are retarded

[rfr3sh]

The odds of doing what Riggs did in the NFL the last two years is astronomical. Statistically speaking, you have a better chance of hitting the lottery than doing what Riggs has done in the NFL. He has had an edge. I do completely agree with you that NFL by FAR is the hardest sport for money to be made in. But to say that "No one" can beat the sport is off.

not true..with 600 plays the stdev is still big

[Stevedore]

No one beats nfl spreads.

Riggs & Maxlock did. Riggs hit at 60% and Maxlock hit at 65% all documented.

[lakerboy]

Riggs & Maxlock did. Riggs hit at 60% and Maxlock hit at 65% all documented.

is that over two years? so i guess they will retire now? lifetime year after year pal.

[Fischnasty]

dacbiet viet is easily the best. hes still posting here under some pseudonym because he was so good and people kept PM'ing him for his plays.

[Monitor-Tan]

This is one of those arguements where both sides can make valid point. The truth is that 2 years is not a lot of sample sizing.. 600 games is not a big sample sizing either.. BUT at the same time, to say that no one can beat the NFL spread is not right either.. One of those arguements where both sides are wrong, and both sides are right..

[sportsgambler54]

SBR Nazis chased away all the good football handicappers...now they can feast off of the losers on here. (SBR has a partnership with the sportsbooks on here and they receive a percentage based of a player's losses)

[The Bet Master]

Cap the games yourself. Jeez.

[sportsgambler54]

Cap the games yourself. Jeez.

And you wonder why sports books have been in business

[4TH AND STUPID]

600 plays is nothing. is riggs gonna stop gambling after that? winning two years in a row isnt a big deal sj. i dont understand why you dont get that considering most guys will gamble for decades. i won in the nfl last year as well and the two years before that. i lost 3 years in a row before that. books make more money on nfl spreads than any other american sport. thats good enough to say that no one beats nfl spreads. a few guys on a good run means little really.

completely disagree!



first of all, NFL can be beat. anything can be beat. if you think otherwise you shouldn't be capping the sport in the first place because you obviosuly aren't good enough (not YOU, i mean you as in the person who thinks in such a manner)

secondly , variance means jack all, because those of us who make money on the NFL do it quietly, and then do it BIG!

i play "real" amounts of money on AT MOST 1 game every 1-2 weeks. Every once in a while (particularly between weeks 4-12 where nobody has figured out who is fake and who is there to stay except somebody who truly understands the sport) there is a game in which there is a dog who has absoultely no business being a dog .

when you can spot the fake dogs you place a good 15-20% of your bankroll on the game and 8-9 times out of 10 you will hit. as long as you stay disciplined (dont go nuts after a bad loss) you can go around 8-2 on the year doing this and make a huge profit.

the problem with the NFL is that most peopel try to handle it like other sports (mlb, nba, nhl , etc) and try to put "3-5 or 5-7 %" or whatever amount of their bankroll as a "money management" scheme.

what you have to figure out and figure out quickly in the NFL is that there are only a handful of lines that are off by a mile, and that is down to how bad public perception is and how good your own understanding of contenders vs pretenders is, as well as proper scouting of matches on the field (ex wide receiver who never plays good against a specific defense/defensive player, or qb who struggles against a certain scheme he will be facing in the next week, which the public hasnt quite figured out yet because either the qb is a rookie or on a new team or unproven etc).... in short, the key matchups in the key positions that people dont quite see.

its not about playing 300 games over two years, its about hammering 8-12 games in a year that are in your favour. some years there will be a couple more, some years there may only be 4 or 5 in the entire season. but going big on specific games is how to win in the NFL. thats why most 'dont' as you claim.

[underthe total]

Why would I? You missed my point about 5 seasons+, I about figure. My first 3 seasons were incredible. The less you know, I about figure, the easier it is. The longer you play the NFL, the more you realize how PUNISHING it is. PM ME, sir! I know I study more tape than anyone on these forums, at least those that post. I don't care, it's like cooking. Keeping secrets is f'n dumb. "oh family secret"? - well, your secret is crap. F off. If we post on the forums, our objective is to maul books. I never post til I've made the play, unless I'm thinking about one... Just saying, these forums are about donkeys posting to get their free points. I don't give a damn if I give it away for free. I won't ever. My information is strong, but my plays stink. That's the NFL.

[k13]

LOL studying film will not help you beat this market

pinny offers 70k limits on NFL sides and you think you can win by studying film or "capping" games

what a joke this is

If people stopped "watching" games, they'd probably be way better off in the long run.

[k13]

We had a contest last year where you had to pick EVERY game in the nfl against the spread....

Highest was 57.7%

I finished 4th overall.


Shows you how hard it is to hit 60% long term, 10 games...yeah that's great. 250 games....1000 games....different story.




Would love to have another one with a higher buy in and lot more people. All these clowns who think they'll hit 70-80% are in for a treat.

[Viperpiper]

riggs and maxlock are the best... if your not following them next season... your a phucking idiot

[Scully]

So after all the chit-chat, have we arrived at the best NFL capper or not?

[lakerboy]

riggs and maxlock are the best... if your not following them next season... your a phucking idiot

No if you follow them next season you are a fukking idiot. Bet there plays and learn.

[THE PROFIT]

you cant beat the NFL using logic

[Viperpiper]

No if you follow them next season you are a fukking idiot. Bet there plays and learn.

I enjoyed my 28,000 bucks from them at 100 per unit....

[hitman09]

Fade yourself in the first year of betting would be a nice tactic, then you have to keep track your thinking and moving on next year.

[emoney]

Anybody who says they make money betting NFL either hasn't been doing it for very long and has just been lucky, or they are lying.

Nobody "caps" the games better than Vegas. All you are doing is flipping a coin, if you beleive otherwise, you are just kidding yourself. Don't get me wrong, I love betting NFL as much as anybody, but any bet you make against the spread or over/under is 50/50 and you will ultimately lose on the juice.

And please stop with the "money management" term. All that means is that you are betting less so you will lose your money more slowly.

[Foosball Champ]

The Las vegas Hilton has the biggest and best season long handicapping contest. give five picks a week against the spread and one best bet. there are people that consistently finish at or near the top year after year. I know that they post the contest picks on friday nights during the season and a website.

[Dexter]

i beat the nfl last year.....and that was over the course of a FULL SEASON documented. not like some other internet clowns/touts around sbr....

by the way....this is one hell of a great advertising thread going on here.

[Dexter]

Riggs & Maxlock did. Riggs hit at 60% and Maxlock hit at 65% all documented.

haha.....65% over how many plays/weeks?

oh boy.....you gotta love this slimy fukin industry.

[Fishhead]

Lots of lunacy in this thread.......................

[iifold]

If there was no fumbles or penelties...

It would have to be your King...

Otherwise, I'd say Loshak..

Fukkin balding, poem writer has all the inside info on where the money is going...

Hangs out with all the top bookmaker's hookers and shit...

Listen to Loshak...

[frognose20]

Nobody. Just pick your own games and hope for the best

[jhack704]

fade me u will be up for sure