Originally Posted by
mesadog
I don't make my 1st Inning plays at BJ. I make my side plays there. As I said before to much criticism I don't account for "value". Lot's of people do that, and they lose their rolls... which is fine with me. I use statistical analysis to predict the most likely plays to win, and then I have a money management system to capitalize on my wins and minimize risk on my losses. To me, a lot of people try and approach the sports betting market like the stock market. That may work for them, but that's not what I do. At the end of the day my system works, however it's not something everyone can do. If you don't know how to model the result of a future event then I understand why you'd think my system has "no chance" of working. My bankroll says differently. With that said, using a probit model which is what my partner and I primarily use doesn't work for ATS sports quite as well... so for that we use other techniques. What the probit does do in non-ATS sports such as baseball though, is gives us massive insight as to which plays have a greater than 60% chance of winning. We take our risks on those plays and then use our money management strategy to maximize gains.