[Goat Milk]

Don't have time to write an analysis like I usually do, but I should have one for tomorrow. After watching the game again this morning, I'm very confident that Miami will win game 5 comfortably. In fact, I think this might be he only game of the series where either team will dominate.

I said many times around the forum that Dallas was the play in game 2 and 4. I did not bet Dallas in game 4 because the ML was just way too expensive for a game I knew would come down to the wire. Dallas had to come back from behind yet again to pull out the victory.

Dallas has been outclassed thus far in the series and they are feeling really good right now that the series is tied. I expect Dallas to play much better ball tomorrow night, but it won't matter. Miami will dominate this game on both ends of the floor. I expect Miami to win this game comfortably, and game 6 to come down the wire. I don't think game 5 will be that close.

I'll have a detailed writeup tomorrow probably. Just want to let all you guys know Miami is definitely the play and I have called this series completely unbiasly thus far.

Haven't made any bets yet , but will post whatever I end up taking tomorrow. good luck.

[Landscaper]

[bleek88]

I agree 100%.

[tony_come]

Be careful

[bleek88]

They'll take control of this series. I would be shocked. Talk about an epic collapse..GO HEAT

[obamaismyuncle]

goat you need new darts

[Muscles]

new darts indeed...this is basically a must win for the Mavs...I think they get it and win the championship...with that said, bet against me.

[Scorpion]

I agree, I like Miami

I think Lebron will show up tomorrow

[bleek88]

LBJ and Wade are going to show up, you watch. Theyll have like LBJ-24pts Wade-22pts Bosh-16pts

[bbenson011]

completely agreed bron bron with a huge game

[INVEGA MAN]

i am so glad everybody likes Miami. I love Dallas.

[hugh4310]

I like Dallas too. I think they win by 5 plus

[ChileCheese]

I agree Miami wins this game.. but it is much closer than you are assuming.
Yes, Miami will probably be up double digits in the 4th like they always are.
But Dallas will be one shot from tieing or winning this game in the final minutes.
I can smell it.

[Goat Milk]

goat you need new darts

Hit 10 out of last 11 nba plays all threads documented. you told me dallas would win game 3 as well. i called every game correctly in this series so far just like last years finals.

[foutty25]

not only game 5 but game 6 too

[Qtip]

Miami is a LOCK!

[jjgold]

If James does not show up Dallas by 15

If he comes to play...tight wire type game again

[lakerboy]

Goat u said before this is like last years final. If that is the case don't mia lose? Line movement is just like last year as well in game 5. Lakers were hammered and we know how boston won easily.

[geist]

Hey GoatMilk,

Who are you leaning towards to take the series eventually?

[bleek88]

The Heat will "fix" the 4th quarter problems and will win game 5.

[rm18]

Hey GoatMilk,

Who are you leaning towards to take the series eventually?

[face]

blah blah bork dub dub i predict that blah blah DALLAS Mavs

[Goat Milk]

Hey GoatMilk,

Who are you leaning towards to take the series eventually?

Took Miami to win the series 4-2 before it started. Check my writeup on the series. Its really long, detailed and spot on.


Dallas's downfall will be their inability to score in the paint. Dallas lives and dies by the jump shot, and tomorrow it will be their demise because of the smothering perimeter defense. Dallas will be forced to take a long of deep jump shots late in the shot clock. These long jumpers lead to long rebounds, and consequently, quick outlets and fast break points.

The jump shot will bury Dallas tomorrow. Trust me on this guys. It's all about watching the film in the finals. This isn't the regular season. Line movement is meaningless here.

[Goat Milk]

blah blah bork dub dub i predict that blah blah DALLAS Mavs

go bump my series writeup, and then you'll see what a bunch of "blah" it is

good luck finding an analysis like that ANYWHERE

[TodayIsForgotten]

I am 90% in agreement with Goat. The only problem I am seeing with Miami is that they have owned every game, but they gave game 2 and 4 away. At times it's like they don't even want to play. Seems like wade and haslem are the ones pouring out the blood, sweat and tears. Lebron needs to step up his game and not disappear in the 4th and Miami needs to play for 48 minutes.

I'm tired of seeing 15,14 and 9 pt leads evaporate in the 4th quarter almost like a script is in place.

I feel confident heat will win game 5 but i do have my doubts.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Hey GoatMilk,

Who are you leaning towards to take the series eventually?

He fantasizes about deep throating LBJ, who do you think he's leaning on

GM aren't you like 49 out of the last 50, so obviously he can't lose

[lakerboy]

Took Miami to win the series 4-2 before it started. Check my writeup on the series. Its really long, detailed and spot on.


Dallas's downfall will be their inability to score in the paint. Dallas lives and dies by the jump shot, and tomorrow it will be their demise because of the smothering perimeter defense. Dallas will be forced to take a long of deep jump shots late in the shot clock. These long jumpers lead to long rebounds, and consequently, quick outlets and fast break points.

The jump shot will bury Dallas tomorrow. Trust me on this guys. It's all about watching the film in the finals. This isn't the regular season. Line movement is meaningless here.

right.

Late money on heat ml in game 1 and heat win
Late money on Mavs ml in game 2 and mavs win
Late money on Heat ml in game 3 and heat win
Late money on Mavs ml in game 4 and mavs win.

Yup line moves have meant nothing.

[lakerboy]

Oh btw Goat the line is moving in the heat favour large so far in game 5. I guess the late money will be on Dallas. We know what that means.

[Sport_Fish]

Looking forward to your write-up Goat Milk, and how many units you put on this game.

I like the heat very much here as well, likely going very big.

[bleek88]

this series should of already been over. hell no those games were handed to dallas because of the stupidity of the heat in the 4th. they've had control thru every game and u know it. that chit will end tomorrow. i promise you that.

Miami +102 (5x)

[iceminers26]

not betting it but rooting for the Mav, GL with your wager

[benrama]

Goat u said before this is like last years final. If that is the case don't mia lose? Line movement is just like last year as well in game 5. Lakers were hammered and we know how boston won easily.

This series is exactly like last years, and like last year I see Dallas winning game 5, Miami crushing them in game 6 and game 7 coming down to the wire.

Dallas still won game 4 with Dirk playing ordinarily and their shooters missing countless shots they'd usually make - combined Terry/Barea/Kidd/Dirk shot 1-11 from 3 point range and most of these were good open looks. That won't happen again. Barea still hasn't had one break-out game, Terry still can't get his rhythm, and Kidd had 0 points, 3 assists and 4 turnovers. Stojakovic has been non-existent (and I must say - may remain so, given his defensive liability).

So yes LBJ had an off night but so did Dallas' superstar and almost entire team apart from Marion and Chandler - if you looked at the box score you'd swear Miami won the game.

I actually think game 4 was Dallas' get-out-of-jail free card more so than game 2's comeback. They'll come out strong in game 5 and I think will know it's a must win situation for them. They are not going to win game 6, that's almost a play that deserves GOY type status.

From a betting perspective there is no value on the opening lines in any of these games. In all 4 games so far I've managed to get the following bets:

Game 1: Opening Miami -4.5, I got live Miami +3.5
Game 2: Opening Miami -4.5, I got live Miami +3.5 and Dallas +2.5 (lucky middle on this admittedly)
Game 3: Opening Dallas -2.5, I got live Dallas +5 and +8
Game 4: Opening Dallas -3, I got live Dallas +3 and +7

The beauty of these teams - and this was the same in the regular season - is that they are both streaky. They can both put on points in a hurry and against each other are evenly enough matched that streaks are likely to occur both ways in nearly every game (I think game 6 will be the exception, by the way).

Armed with this knowledge you need simply wait for one team to get ahead by 7-10 points and jump on the live line. For me this is the only "sharp" way of playing this finals series.

[ZetaPsi808]

goat milk is this an nba film study play

[jkilla990]

Dallas gets game 5 by a small margin, then heat blow them out at home for game 6 and then we have a game 7 in which the mavs win

[newjerseydevils]

i like when people make calls before the game starts. good luck buddy. win or lose. atleast you have the balls to make your calls and stick by them