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Vegas Dave's NFL Picks Week 8 (Every Game w/ Write Up)
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THE RECORD
Last Week
With the spread: 7 - 7 - 0 (.500)
Without the spread: 11 - 3 - 0 (.786)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 - 0 - 0 (1.000)
Season
With the spread: 53 - 47 - 2 (.530)
Without the spread: 61 - 41 - 0 (.598)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 10 - 1 - 0 (.909)
THE PICKS
* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick
SUNDAY
Oakland (+7.0) @ Baltimore (-7.0)
Shockingly enough, another Raider game that is impossible to predict. So far this season the Raiders have beaten Kansas City and New York (Jets), played the Bills and Chargers very close, and got destroyed by the Broncos and Saints. What do the Broncos and Saints have? An excellent passing attack. Baltimore does NOT have that, meaning they can't exploit the Raiders' main weakness. And the Raiders did beat the Jets and defend against the pass very well. As such, I think the Raiders have a great shot at keeping this game close. All that said, will the Raiders offense be able to move and protect the ball against a very fierce Ravens defense IN Baltimore? This is where I start leaning the other way. As always with Raider games, I must advise you to stay away; but I'm going to give the slight edge to Baltimore for their defense and for their home field advantage.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
Arizona (+4.0) @ Carolina (-4.0)
Very quietly, Carolina has established themselves as a defensive force in the NFC. With a balanced offense as well, Carolina has all the makings of a playoff team. Can't take anything away from Arizona; they have played great this year as well, and their passing attack is outstanding. Both teams will score their share of points, but I think Carolina's defense and home field advantage (hmm, sensing a little de ja vu from my last pick) will put them over the top here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina
Tampa Bay (+2.0) @ Dallas (-2.0)
Two teams going in completely different directions. Tampa Bay has won 5 of their last 6, and their two losses were by a combined 7 points. The defense is strong and the offense is cruising. It feels so wrong passing on Dallas at home -2.0, but this is 2008, and this Cowboys team right now is not the better team on the football field. On paper they may be; but the defense is doing nothing and with Romo out, I'm having trouble validating picking against the Buccaneers.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay
Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit (+7.5)
Detroit had a few huge plays that ended up earning them the cover last week against Houston, but Washington shouldn't allow those this week. Generally I'd take the winless home team and the touchdown, but Washington is coming off of a loss to St. Louis and a too-close-for-comfort game against Cleveland; I think they keep their focus and look to flex their muscles against a very bad Detroit team this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington
Buffalo (-1.0) @ Miami (+1.0)
Ah, the lovely trap game. In one corner we have Buffalo, 5 - 1 coming fresh off of an impressive victory over San Diego. Trent Edwards is back, healthy, and looking great. This week he faces the 27th ranked passing defense in Miami. Miami is coming off of two straight losses and seems to have come back down to earth. So why is the spread only -1.0? Throw in the fact that Buffalo has won 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams and the fact that Miami lost at home last week as a favorite and is now a home underdog, it doesn't get a whole lot more philosophical than this.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Miami
St. Louis (+7.5) @ New England (-7.5)
Very interesting, considering we are just about at the halfway point and I have no idea what to expect from either of these teams, at all. New England pounded Denver last week, but hadn't shown anything like that in the games before that one; St. Louis stunned Washington in Washington, and then kept the crazy train rolling with a win over Dallas. The +7.5 is awfully tempting, but I actually think St. Louis is due to come back down to earth, and with Stephen Jackson not at 100% and New England having a game to build on, I'll take my chances with the Pats.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
San Diego (-3.0) @ New Orleans (+3.0)
Football in England that doesn't involve a spherical ball. Interesting. Really no way to tell what effect the travel will have on these teams (though we do know San Diego doesn't seem to travel very well), so we'll have to call that a wash and just look at the game. Yes, losing Reggie Bush is yet another big hit to the Saints offense, but they get Colston back for this game. San Diego's passing defense is awful, and I really feel that the Saints, even without Bush, will move the ball at will through the air. The Chargers will score plenty too, but I trust Brees more than I trust Rivers. Plus, you have the cool Brees playing against his old team angle, too. I'll take the Saints to win it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New Orleans
Atlanta (+9.0) @ Philadelphia (-9.0)
I was completely ready to pick Atlanta, but something doesn't look right about this game. Philly has not been a blow-out team this year, and Atlanta is coming off of an impressive win against a tough Chicago team. What is with this spread? Looking closer, you have the 4th best passing game in the league in Philly VS. the 26th ranked passing defense in Atlanta. Atlanta's rushing game, which is 2nd best in the league, faces the league's 9th ranked rushing defense. This just isn't a good match up for Atlanta at all, and I think Philadelphia will win comfortably.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
Kansas City (+13.5) @ New York Jets (-13.5)
Would love to find a reason to take Kansas City, but with the Jets coming fresh off of a frustrating loss and the Chiefs once again without their best offensive weapon (Larry Johnson), it is hard to see them finding the endzone with this ragtag group of quarterbacks. Double digit underdogs have had amazing success this year, but I think this one loses big.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets
Cleveland (+7.0) @ Jacksonville (-7.0)
Jacksonville has won 3 games this year; by margins of 2, 3, and 7. Cleveland's defense has looked very good over the last few weeks. Jacksonville is the clear cut better team this year, but I just think 7 points is too many to give up.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville
Cincinnati (+9.0) @ Houston (-9.0)
After the way Houston coughed up the cover last week, I'm very hesitant to turn to them again this week; but they are the pick here. Mired in injuries and now heading out on the road without Carson Palmer, this Bengals team has to be completely demoralized. The Texans are still trying hard to get their season back on track after a rocky start, and they are playing in their 4th straight home game. A double digit win in this spot seems very reasonable.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston
New York Giants (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)
These teams match up pretty perfectly, and the 3 points makes perfect sense since Pittsburgh has home field advantage. This should be a game that comes down to bounces; and with Eli Manning resorting to some old bad habits and throwing some interceptions over the last few games, Pittsburgh may be the pick here. I believe, however, that the Giants defense will be able to contain Big Ben a bit better than Cincinnati and Jacksonville could, and the G-men will finish this game on top.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Giants
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New York Giants
Seattle (+5.5) @ San Francisco (-5.5)
Seattle is decimated by injuries, and they have made me pay for taking them for three straight weeks now. Lets make it 4. They lost to Green Bay and Tampa Bay by 10 points each, and San Francisco is not as good as those two teams. I think Seneca Wallace gets a little more done against the 49ers this week, and Seattle covers; but still finds a way to lose by 3 or 4.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco
MONDAY
Indianapolis (+4.0) @ Tennessee (-4.0)
I've thoroughly enjoyed riding the Titan-train this year, and until I hit a rock in the tracks, I'm going to keep riding it. The betting public's inability to appreciate great defense, as well as the betting public not realizing that Indianapolis just isn't the same team they've been over the last few years, gives us a spread of only 4.0 that should be a lot closer to 7.0. Tennessee matches up perfectly to the Colts, and this is their year. They send that message Monday night in big bold letters.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee
Good luck!
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DAL NO PHI ARI BAL NE WAS NYJ MIA CLE CIN PIT SEA TEN
Originally Posted by LT Profits
