1. #1
    VegasDave
    Philosophy Frog
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    Vegas Dave's NFL Picks Week 8 (Every Game w/ Write Up)

    Remember if you want these Friday morning instead of late Saturday night, ask me to sign up for my newsletter and I'll email this to you Friday mornings (free of course)!

    THE RECORD

    Last Week
    With the spread: 7 - 7 - 0 (.500)
    Without the spread: 11 - 3 - 0 (.786)
    ^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 - 0 - 0 (1.000)

    Season
    With the spread: 53 - 47 - 2 (.530)
    Without the spread: 61 - 41 - 0 (.598)
    ^^Philosophical Picks^^: 10 - 1 - 0 (.909)

    THE PICKS

    * - Indicates Upset Pick
    ^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick

    SUNDAY

    Oakland (+7.0) @ Baltimore (-7.0)
    Shockingly enough, another Raider game that is impossible to predict. So far this season the Raiders have beaten Kansas City and New York (Jets), played the Bills and Chargers very close, and got destroyed by the Broncos and Saints. What do the Broncos and Saints have? An excellent passing attack. Baltimore does NOT have that, meaning they can't exploit the Raiders' main weakness. And the Raiders did beat the Jets and defend against the pass very well. As such, I think the Raiders have a great shot at keeping this game close. All that said, will the Raiders offense be able to move and protect the ball against a very fierce Ravens defense IN Baltimore? This is where I start leaning the other way. As always with Raider games, I must advise you to stay away; but I'm going to give the slight edge to Baltimore for their defense and for their home field advantage.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Baltimore
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore

    Arizona (+4.0) @ Carolina (-4.0)
    Very quietly, Carolina has established themselves as a defensive force in the NFC. With a balanced offense as well, Carolina has all the makings of a playoff team. Can't take anything away from Arizona; they have played great this year as well, and their passing attack is outstanding. Both teams will score their share of points, but I think Carolina's defense and home field advantage (hmm, sensing a little de ja vu from my last pick) will put them over the top here.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Carolina
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Carolina

    Tampa Bay (+2.0) @ Dallas (-2.0)
    Two teams going in completely different directions. Tampa Bay has won 5 of their last 6, and their two losses were by a combined 7 points. The defense is strong and the offense is cruising. It feels so wrong passing on Dallas at home -2.0, but this is 2008, and this Cowboys team right now is not the better team on the football field. On paper they may be; but the defense is doing nothing and with Romo out, I'm having trouble validating picking against the Buccaneers.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Tampa Bay

    Washington (-7.5) @ Detroit (+7.5)
    Detroit had a few huge plays that ended up earning them the cover last week against Houston, but Washington shouldn't allow those this week. Generally I'd take the winless home team and the touchdown, but Washington is coming off of a loss to St. Louis and a too-close-for-comfort game against Cleveland; I think they keep their focus and look to flex their muscles against a very bad Detroit team this week.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Washington
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Washington

    Buffalo (-1.0) @ Miami (+1.0)
    Ah, the lovely trap game. In one corner we have Buffalo, 5 - 1 coming fresh off of an impressive victory over San Diego. Trent Edwards is back, healthy, and looking great. This week he faces the 27th ranked passing defense in Miami. Miami is coming off of two straight losses and seems to have come back down to earth. So why is the spread only -1.0? Throw in the fact that Buffalo has won 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams and the fact that Miami lost at home last week as a favorite and is now a home underdog, it doesn't get a whole lot more philosophical than this.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Miami
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Miami

    St. Louis (+7.5) @ New England (-7.5)
    Very interesting, considering we are just about at the halfway point and I have no idea what to expect from either of these teams, at all. New England pounded Denver last week, but hadn't shown anything like that in the games before that one; St. Louis stunned Washington in Washington, and then kept the crazy train rolling with a win over Dallas. The +7.5 is awfully tempting, but I actually think St. Louis is due to come back down to earth, and with Stephen Jackson not at 100% and New England having a game to build on, I'll take my chances with the Pats.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England

    San Diego (-3.0) @ New Orleans (+3.0)
    Football in England that doesn't involve a spherical ball. Interesting. Really no way to tell what effect the travel will have on these teams (though we do know San Diego doesn't seem to travel very well), so we'll have to call that a wash and just look at the game. Yes, losing Reggie Bush is yet another big hit to the Saints offense, but they get Colston back for this game. San Diego's passing defense is awful, and I really feel that the Saints, even without Bush, will move the ball at will through the air. The Chargers will score plenty too, but I trust Brees more than I trust Rivers. Plus, you have the cool Brees playing against his old team angle, too. I'll take the Saints to win it.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New Orleans
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New Orleans

    Atlanta (+9.0) @ Philadelphia (-9.0)
    I was completely ready to pick Atlanta, but something doesn't look right about this game. Philly has not been a blow-out team this year, and Atlanta is coming off of an impressive win against a tough Chicago team. What is with this spread? Looking closer, you have the 4th best passing game in the league in Philly VS. the 26th ranked passing defense in Atlanta. Atlanta's rushing game, which is 2nd best in the league, faces the league's 9th ranked rushing defense. This just isn't a good match up for Atlanta at all, and I think Philadelphia will win comfortably.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia

    Kansas City (+13.5) @ New York Jets (-13.5)
    Would love to find a reason to take Kansas City, but with the Jets coming fresh off of a frustrating loss and the Chiefs once again without their best offensive weapon (Larry Johnson), it is hard to see them finding the endzone with this ragtag group of quarterbacks. Double digit underdogs have had amazing success this year, but I think this one loses big.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New York Jets
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets

    Cleveland (+7.0) @ Jacksonville (-7.0)
    Jacksonville has won 3 games this year; by margins of 2, 3, and 7. Cleveland's defense has looked very good over the last few weeks. Jacksonville is the clear cut better team this year, but I just think 7 points is too many to give up.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cleveland
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Jacksonville

    Cincinnati (+9.0) @ Houston (-9.0)
    After the way Houston coughed up the cover last week, I'm very hesitant to turn to them again this week; but they are the pick here. Mired in injuries and now heading out on the road without Carson Palmer, this Bengals team has to be completely demoralized. The Texans are still trying hard to get their season back on track after a rocky start, and they are playing in their 4th straight home game. A double digit win in this spot seems very reasonable.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston

    New York Giants (+3.0) @ Pittsburgh (-3.0)
    These teams match up pretty perfectly, and the 3 points makes perfect sense since Pittsburgh has home field advantage. This should be a game that comes down to bounces; and with Eli Manning resorting to some old bad habits and throwing some interceptions over the last few games, Pittsburgh may be the pick here. I believe, however, that the Giants defense will be able to contain Big Ben a bit better than Cincinnati and Jacksonville could, and the G-men will finish this game on top.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *New York Giants
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *New York Giants

    Seattle (+5.5) @ San Francisco (-5.5)
    Seattle is decimated by injuries, and they have made me pay for taking them for three straight weeks now. Lets make it 4. They lost to Green Bay and Tampa Bay by 10 points each, and San Francisco is not as good as those two teams. I think Seneca Wallace gets a little more done against the 49ers this week, and Seattle covers; but still finds a way to lose by 3 or 4.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Seattle
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco

    MONDAY

    Indianapolis (+4.0) @ Tennessee (-4.0)
    I've thoroughly enjoyed riding the Titan-train this year, and until I hit a rock in the tracks, I'm going to keep riding it. The betting public's inability to appreciate great defense, as well as the betting public not realizing that Indianapolis just isn't the same team they've been over the last few years, gives us a spread of only 4.0 that should be a lot closer to 7.0. Tennessee matches up perfectly to the Colts, and this is their year. They send that message Monday night in big bold letters.
    PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Tennessee
    PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Tennessee

    Good luck!

  2. #2
    DeluxeLiner
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    Arizona @ Carolina

    Between bettracker and sports.com betting trends I would say that the public is betting this game roughly 80/20. The spread has moved from 4.5 to 4 to 3.5(at some books). That is textbook holy grail RLM.

    Not saying that I understand why the big money betters feel so strongly with all their money on Arizona but...

    Added: Though some tout services are on Carolina so who knows I don't really trust them though.
    Last edited by DeluxeLiner; 10-26-08 at 12:40 AM.

  3. #3
    abc
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    I'm with you on a lot of your picks, but unfortunately, I'm against you on your philosophical pick. I just think that Buffalo is a better team. Hope we hit the other ones though. gl!

  4. #4
    InTheHole
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    Good Luck Bud! I am using Lt's approach for my NFL fantasy league picks. Such a approach is well supported with your Miami selection. This is what I came up with (bold being our differencs) DAL NO PHI ARI BAL NE WAS NYJ MIA CLE CIN PIT SEA TEN

  5. #5
    LT Profits
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    I philisophically agree with your Miami play, although +105 on the ML is better than +1.

  6. #6
    spongerat
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    love the writeup on TN. I've been saying since before the season started that they were gonna be a team to watch this year. I've been riding along with them ever since and they have not done me wrong. I plan to keep on them until they beat everyone! Lets go Titans!

    Also agree with Miami, I am on them this week, can't stop ronnie brown!
    Last edited by spongerat; 10-26-08 at 05:09 AM.

  7. #7
    gm2022
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    Agree with most, except I got to go with the Chargers. GL today USC!

  8. #8
    SexyMit
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I philisophically agree with your Miami play, although +105 on the ML is better than +1.
    I've been waiting for this game alll week, when I noticed the line come out.

  9. #9
    VegasDave
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    Good luck to all of you thanks for reading

  10. #10
    VegasDave
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    5 - 3 - 1 morning, and of course my philosophy pick cashed

  11. #11
    spongerat
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    i'm glad i learned a couple weeks ago to start betting your philsophy bet with actual money, not just philosophical money.

  12. #12
    VegasDave
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    Haha right on! Hope I can keep this up, hard to believe a sick run like this can continue. It seems once I put a little ^ next to my pick, it magically becomes a winner.

  13. #13
    spongerat
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    what does it take for a play to be determined a philosophical pick?

  14. #14
    gm2022
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    Quote Originally Posted by spongerat View Post
    what does it take for a play to be determined a philosophical pick?
    1. PROB WINS OUTRIGHT!

    2. PROB COVERS THE SPREAD!


  15. #15
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by spongerat View Post
    what does it take for a play to be determined a philosophical pick?
    If I told you that, I'd have to kill ya

  16. #16
    VegasDave
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    4 - 0 Afternoon!

    9 - 3 - 1 today...

    62 - 50 - 3 season... 55.4%

    58 - 38 - 3 since week 2... 60.4%

    Remind me why you haven't signed up for my free NFL Newsletter yet?

  17. #17
    DeluxeLiner
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    alright usc send me your newsletter I am signing on board.

  18. #18
    VegasDave
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    Haha thanks man just PM me the email address you want it sent too

    Send it out Friday mornings.

  19. #19
    VegasDave
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    Titans win!

    10 - 3 - 1 fellas!

    Hope you followed me on some of these!

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