1. #1
    pavyracer
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    Need Hockey Math Sharp Help

    Jun 01 - 8:00 PM
    2011 STANLEY CUP - EXACT SERIES RESULT



    1
    BOSTON BRUINS 4-0


    +2500





    2
    BOSTON BRUINS 4-1


    +1200





    3
    BOSTON BRUINS 4-2


    +650





    4
    BOSTON BRUINS 4-3


    +750





    5
    VANCOUVER CANUCKS 4-0


    +750





    6
    VANCOUVER CANUCKS 4-1


    +325





    7
    VANCOUVER CANUCKS 4-2


    +400





    8
    VANCOUVER CANUCKS 4-3


    +375



    Jun 01 - 8:00 PM
    2011 STANLEY CUP - TOTAL GAMES PLAYED IN SERIES


    1
    OVER GAMES 5.5


    -175





    2
    UNDER GAMES 5.5


    +145



    OK How come the Canucks 4-1 is priced as a favorite price +325 for all possible outcomes for exact series result but the under 5.5 games is a dog at +145 compared to over?

  2. #2
    BIGDAY
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    This is going to drive me to drink...

  3. #3
    sharpcat
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    Remove the vig and the 4 outcomes less than 5.5 games is roughly +141 in the Exact Series market.

    Boston 4-0= 3.4042%
    Boston 4-1= 6.8084%
    Vanc 4-0= 10.4128%
    Vanc 4-1= 20.8256%

    SUM= 41.4509%
    Fair ML= 141.2493

  4. #4
    pavyracer
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    Quote Originally Posted by sharpcat View Post
    Remove the vig and the 4 outcomes less than 5.5 games is roughly +141 in the Exact Series market.

    Boston 4-0= 3.4042%
    Boston 4-1= 6.8084%
    Vanc 4-0= 10.4128%
    Vanc 4-1= 20.8256%

    SUM= 41.4509%
    Fair ML= 141.2493
    Thanks.

    I like the under 5.5 games because I have a small edge (I think).

  5. #5
    boeing power
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    Because the canucks play at home in game 5. The books believe the canucks win series in 5 games or 7 games. If the series goes to 6 games the bruins will be at home in game 6 and will be favored.

  6. #6
    sharpcat
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Thanks.

    I like the under 5.5 games because I have a small edge (I think).
    One of those 5 bets likely has value since one market says fair price is +141 and the other says fair price is +156

  7. #7
    CanuckG
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    Take over 5.5 games. Hell take over 6.5

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