1. #1
    VegasDave
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    Vegas Dave's NFL PHILOSOPHY PICK 10/26 (10 - 1 ATS This Year!)

    Well, so far this year my PHILOSOPHY PICKS are 10 – 1 – 0 ATS.

    9 – 0 – 0 ATS since Week 2

    I know, sounds very tout-ish, but it is true; and I’ve posted all of these picks and sent them out in my newsletter so you know I’m not pulling this out of thin air.

    So either fade me if you think I’m due to crash, or tail me if you believe in these suckers!

    Buffalo (-1.0) @ Miami (+1.0)

    TRAP SPREAD:

    In one corner we have Buffalo, 5 - 1 coming fresh off of an impressive victory over San Diego. Trent Edwards is back, healthy, and looking great. This week he faces the 27th ranked passing defense in Miami. Buffalo is viewed as a pretty legitimate playoff-bound team this year.

    Miami is 2 – 4, coming off of two straight losses and seems to have come back down to earth. The Wildcat, while still dangerous to break the big play, is no longer a surprise; teams that prepare for the Dolphins know that this formation is in their repertoire now and make sure to spend time during the week on how to defend against it and not bite too early on misdirection plays. Chad Pennington’s arm is extremely limited in a conventional passing game, and this week he faces the league’s 9th ranked passing defense.

    Shouldn’t Miami be getting AT LEAST a field goal here? Before you make the Buffalo/@Arizona argument, consider that Arizona was a very different story; not only is Arizona a better team than Miami, but Buffalo also had to travel cross country into a different time zone for that one. The Bills had no trouble in heading down to Florida to beat Jacksonville earlier this year.

    The spread opened at Buffalo (-2.0) / Miami (+2.0). About 80% of bets came in on the Bills; and the line moved to -1.0. No, that isn’t a typo; they got the majority of the action at about 4 to 1, but the line moved in the opposite direction. Very interesting.

    BUFFALO DOMINANCE:

    Buffalo has won 7 of the last 8 games they have played against Miami.

    Why do I like that? Because as if Buffalo doesn’t have enough reason to be confident heading into this game, they also know that they dominate this team. Yes, as a player you can train yourself not to think that way, but subconsciously for long-time Bills, it is awfully hard not to notice that when you see Dolphin jerseys on the other side of the ball, you win the game. For the Dolphins, this is a chance to show that in the Parcells era, things are going to be different in this rivalry.

    HOME DOG:

    Lastly, this is Miami’s second straight game at home. They lost as a favorite at home last week, and now they find themselves a home underdog. Blindly betting every home dog on the board all season won’t make you any money. Home dogs playing in front of the same home crowd that they just lost to a team they were favored against, this week playing against a surging division rival? It really doesn’t get a whole lot better.

    Fins win this one outright.

    Good luck, fade or follow

  2. #2
    VegasDave
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    91% winning percentage on these for me this year and a bit above 60% over the last 3 years, want to make sure you guys see this; you can ignore everything else I do as long as you pay attention to these

  3. #3
    VegasDave
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    One more time.

  4. #4
    topgame85
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    GL Bills win by 2 tds + though

  5. #5
    DeluxeLiner
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    Knew this was going to be your philosophy pick the second I saw the RLM and the public being massively on Buffalo.

    Miami ml all the way!

  6. #6
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by DeluxeLiner View Post
    Knew this was going to be your philosophy pick the second I saw the RLM and the public being massively on Buffalo.

    Miami ml all the way!
    Are you saying I'm predictable?!?!!?

    Haha, lets get this one

  7. #7
    InTheHole
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    Good write-up and I have been tracking this one since Tuesday. I think it hits.

  8. #8
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by InTheHole View Post
    Good write-up and I have been tracking this one since Tuesday. I think it hits.
    Lets take it to the bank

  9. #9
    LT Profits
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    I thought Arizona was a prime Philosophy candidate too.

  10. #10
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I thought Arizona was a prime Philosophy candidate too.
    How so, the reverse line movement?

    Much more to philosophy picks than line movement. I actually thought +4/-4 was a very fair line.

  11. #11
    gm2022
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    Great Call USC 11-1 is hell of a record!

  12. #12
    InTheHole
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    Descartes of cappers!

  13. #13
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by topgame85 View Post
    GL Bills win by 2 tds + though
    Feel free to bet against me all day, but people have to get out of the habit of saying my Philosophy picks will lose by 2 TDs

  14. #14
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by InTheHole View Post
    Descartes of cappers!


    10 straight wins, this is getting completely ridiculous!

  15. #15
    abc
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    Good call, usc. Unfortunately, I was against you. gl!

  16. #16
    jjgold
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    Nice call

    Bald
    & Proud
    of Myself -jjgold

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  17. #17
    mmike032
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    great call, i was on it as well

  18. #18
    nosniboR11
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    good job

  19. #19
    DeluxeLiner
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    Nice!

    Let it be known...

    DO NOT FADE DAVE'S PHILOSOPHY PICK

  20. #20
    CaneDawg
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    good job

  21. #21
    VegasDave
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    Thanks for all the love fellas

    Can't wait to keep sharing these down the stretch!

  22. #22
    Panic
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    Nice call, USC.

  23. #23
    SportNut
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    Thanks mang!!!

  24. #24
    SexyMit
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    I was on it since tuesday of last week. Just to see you on Sunday on it as well made me just put that much more on the game yesterday. Congrats and GL this week.

  25. #25
    laxdjock
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    Wow...great job.

  26. #26
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by SexyMit View Post
    I was on it since tuesday of last week. Just to see you on Sunday on it as well made me just put that much more on the game yesterday. Congrats and GL this week.
    Yeah I noticed you and a few others were on this... I was thinking to myself it may not qualify if too many people noticed it and were on to it, but after breaking it down it was a perfect fit. Great job to you and the others who saw this even before I did

  27. #27
    Chi_archie
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    Nice work USC....wait... you got the name change you wanted... nice work Vegas Dave... I cashed on this, and took miami to win in a "office pool" pickem kinda contest. Only person outta 25-ish to take miami.. that coupled with a few of your other philosophy picks I used in the pool early this year and people are bowing down to me in that pool... keep up the good work.. hard to keep up this pace,
    but you are gonna be at a high % the rest of the year no matter what...... just don't try to force things..

  28. #28
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chi_archie View Post
    Nice work USC....wait... you got the name change you wanted... nice work Vegas Dave... I cashed on this, and took miami to win in a "office pool" pickem kinda contest. Only person outta 25-ish to take miami.. that coupled with a few of your other philosophy picks I used in the pool early this year and people are bowing down to me in that pool... keep up the good work.. hard to keep up this pace,
    but you are gonna be at a high % the rest of the year no matter what...... just don't try to force things..
    Glad to hear you are kicking ass!

    Not forcing things is exactly why I'm doing so well with these. When I first started with these in '05, I went 27 - 13 - 1 for 67.5% winners.

    I got so excited that in '06 I started overdoing it, looking for them everywhere and forcing them, went 24 - 22 - 2 (52.2%)...

    '07 I went back to being selective and only found 23 plays all year... 14 - 7 - 2, (66.7%)

    2005 was just a very philosophical year.

  29. #29
    NEP Dynasty
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    Dave, are you actually wagering on these picks?

    I remember early in the season you said you were withdrawing all your $ from the sportsbooks. Did you follow through on this?

  30. #30
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by NEP Dynasty View Post
    Dave, are you actually wagering on these picks?
    Nope, I'm not. I'd love to be, but I am completely broke. And not from gambling. I have a lousy job that only pays me $10/hr and doesn't give me too many hours because they don't want me to qualify for benefits. Been applying for others, no dice so far.

    So after gas to commute to the shitty job, food, and girlfriend, I'm lucky if I net $30 in my bank account a week these days. As of right now I've got about $400 to my name. Can't afford to gamble right now.

    So, yeah. Strong year I'm having is all for nothing. But I love to cap, and I could keep records on my own... but instead I broadcast and write up my picks in hopes that someone else can win with them.

    This is why I get upset when people attack me. I don't care all that much, but I'm just a broke kid that takes up his free time trying to pick winners for other people and I don't ask for anything in return. Why people get off calling me names is beyond me.

    But fortunately, as seen in my threads, most of you are extremely supportive and cool, and you all far outweigh the jerks. So thanks for that

  31. #31
    t-bone
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    much appreciated dave, you'll come into money at some point. i've been watching your college vids the past couple of weeks, keep up the good work!

  32. #32
    ertl09
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    nice job this week, I bet you put a lot of work into the write ups and vids, keep it up!

    I know you said you were broke but you will be surprised what a couple hundred bucks can get you.

  33. #33
    rm18
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    You should spend time on contests or poker freerolls to get betting money, i got like 11k in bodog and 2k in bookmaker from scratch

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  34. #34
    ICE-BLOOD
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    nice dedication you have for handicapping.
    start small with a 100 deposit
    grind it out a little at a time
    allow for winning/losing streaks
    it's nice to pick a good % winners, but money management is a big part of gambling
    different feeling/strategy for those philosophy plays when you put $ on it
    good luck

  35. #35
    Panic
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    Apply for a mod job here, Dave. You already put in the hours. Make some extra cash.

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