1. #1
    VegasDave
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    If You Believe In Trap Spreads, Oakland +3 Is As Good As It Gets!

    New York Jets -3.0 @ Oakland Raiders +3.0

    Public Perception:

    Jets - Brett Favre continues to skew lines towards the Jets. People love him, and when he got traded to Jets, everyone started talking playoffs. After burying Arizona and covering against Cincinnati, no reason for the betting public to believe they can't cover a measly 3 points against the lowly Raiders.

    Raiders - After firing Lane Kiffin, Al Davis went on to have one of the most bizarre press conferences ever. He, as well as the team, is a complete laughing stock. Tom Cable is not a capable head coach. They got completely destroyed by New Orleans (pass happy, like the Jets) but more alarmingly they were completely shut down on offense against a fairly mediocre defense. If they couldn't stop New Orleans, how will they stop the Jets?

    The Matchups:

    Jets 5th in NFL points scored for VS. Raiders 27th in points against.

    Brett Favre VS. Raiders 25th ranked passing defense.

    Raiders 29th ranked passing attack shouldn't be able to exploit the Jets bad passing defense...

    Raiders 4th ranked rushing attack faces the Jet's 3rd ranked rushing defense.

    Now I know this is oversimplified, but my point is simply this; the average capper looking at the stats sees a Raiders team that can't pass the ball and relies on the run, which is perfect for the Jets since their rushing defense is their strong point. The Jets, meanwhile, get to unleash Brett Favre on the league's 25th worst passing defense. We saw the simplicity that Cutler and Brees moved the ball against them with.

    Conclusion:

    Bookies know that the public overvalues the Jets and undervalues the Raiders. So they know they can tweak the spread accordingly (-a half point or two on the Jets, +half a point or two for the Raiders). Then you look at the statistics/capping 101 breakdown of this game, and there is a lot to like about the Jets here.

    So why on earth is this spread only 3? And why hasn't it moved? EVERYONE is on the Jets, and everyone seems fine paying extra juice to take them at such a bargain number, too.

    If you don't believe in trap spreads, take the Jets, they are clearly the pick. I for one will be on Oakland; way way way too obvious in my opinion that the books are up to something on this one.

  2. #2
    ZBOIZ
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    I will stay away from this game!!! But your right about the line being trappy!

  3. #3
    ZBOIZ
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    But the reason the linemakers have it like this is because Cable will have his first home game as a head coach and fans will be very very into this game! So expect Cable to have his team ready for his first home game!

  4. #4
    aiyerrc
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    very well thought out and well explained, and i know i am very new to SBR, but i believe you contradicted your own research. a much better team is playing a much worse team. the favored team relies on what the underdog is weak at. you explain all the reason why the jets should easily cover -3 and then you pick the complete opposite because you dont "trust" the books? yes of course upsets happen, but 8 out of 10 times they dont. go with ur research and take the jets. they are a "sure thing"

    jets for 2 dimer for me.

  5. #5
    VegasDave
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    I always contradict my own research! These are my PHILOSOPHY PICKS. If it were as simple as just crunching numbers, everyone would be rich. Just like I had the Rams last week, I've got the Raiders this week. Sometimes you have to go against logic.

  6. #6
    durito
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    it's a fair line

  7. #7
    treece
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    Holy trap line batman!!!

  8. #8
    DeluxeLiner
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    I know the bookies think that the Raiders are the play here. The Raiders are the sharp play.

    Saying that I think the Jets win anyway even though they are on the road across the country. I am going to be an interested observer and for the exact same reason usckings mentioned, I think the Jets win (wouldn't bet on it though)

    BTW: That Saints line last week was a Vegas gift and I could not believe the spread was as small as it was (I thought NO was at least a 2 td favorite). I didn't look at the betting publics percentages of sides on the game but I am sure heavy action was on the Saints and that was no trap game. The Saints are so underrated I love it (they should be 5-1 in my opinion if it werent for flukes and gramatica's poor kicking)
    175 pts

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  9. #9
    gm2022
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    One of these teams kicks a game winning field goal as time expires, who that is I dunno!
    Last edited by gm2022; 10-22-08 at 06:05 AM.

  10. #10
    Robust
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    reverse line movement.. oakland wins!! bet you house on it..

    Robust

  11. #11
    gm2022
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robust View Post
    reverse line movement.. oakland wins!! bet you house on it..

    Robust
    Hard to lay any big money on a team that is all potential, and has shown they cant close games out yet. I think that is Oak biggest leek. Playing all 4 quarters!

  12. #12
    dyosh808
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    Hahaha oh man, I'm just getting into this whole football capping thing and before I read this thread I was thinking Jets -3 was a number 1 pick. Now I don't know what to think.

  13. #13
    gm2022
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    Quote Originally Posted by dyosh808 View Post
    Hahaha oh man, I'm just getting into this whole football capping thing and before I read this thread I was thinking Jets -3 was a number 1 pick. Now I don't know what to think.
    Its always good to listen to the cons of a game that you like. But play your games, there is always gonna be good and bad things regardless to the side you our on. But as long as the pros outweigh the cons(ex Farve vs Russel= take jets) than take the side that you feel has the better edge!

  14. #14
    laxdjock
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    I'd be Jets BIG normally, but I have an off feeling about this game. In for a small bet.

  15. #15
    Always Somethin'
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    IF Kiffin was coach, OAK would be the play, but he's not so Ill take the Jets -3.

  16. #16
    yisman
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    do not take the Jets. I'm warning you ahead of time.
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  17. #17
    unde0087
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    we heard the same arguement by many about the Jets/Dolphins game in week 1 and Jets won and covered that game, same thing here

  18. #18
    UntilTheNDofTimE
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    For all the reasons stated above from the public view is the reason im all over this game, theres always the possibility of a team ahving a let down but not like the jets are in a posistion to let this one get away from them. With the pats having a decently tuff game tomrrow night the jets no they can gain game on them and there still looking up towards buffalo. If dont bleeive the raiders can cover the pass and i tihnk the jets will win and cover. Just one mans opinion but i can be wrong. but i got 5 bills on it. we'll see.

  19. #19
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by unde0087 View Post
    we heard the same arguement by many about the Jets/Dolphins game in week 1 and Jets won and covered that game, same thing here
    Yeah, I was on the Fins in that one. Took a last second TD in that one for NYJ to cover.

  20. #20
    kieranrox
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    Yea its a tricky one. But lose the mind games and its pretty clear the jets are the stronger team.

  21. #21
    2Leesan
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    As for me, this is a no brainer. Jets win and cover easily!

    Best of luck to everyone!

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  22. #22
    CaneDawg
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    sit this one out

    in fact this whole sunday card is tough

    gonna flip a coin on a few totals and enjoy the day


    this card is tough

  23. #23
    VegasDave
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    Say what you will about me, but I do hit the shit out of these philosophy picks

  24. #24
    jjgold
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    Oakland has battled everyone this year so I think this win was not a surprise around league.

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  25. #25
    VegasDave
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    Shanty gets a "great call!" and I get a "this was not a surprise around the league"? Not fair JJ!

  26. #26
    Always Somethin'
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    This game was a joke.. didn't think Favre would have his worst game since 06. He looked awful.

  27. #27
    CaneDawg
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    glad i had the under

  28. #28
    donjuan
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    If it were as simple as just crunching numbers, everyone would be rich.
    It is "as simple" as crunching numbers.

  29. #29
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by donjuan View Post
    It is "as simple" as crunching numbers.
    I meant as far as handicapping stats goes, not line shopping etc.

    It may be simple for you, but us ordinary people work awfully hard trying to figure it out

  30. #30
    donjuan
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    I meant as far as handicapping stats goes, not line shopping etc.

    It may be simple for you, but us ordinary people work awfully hard trying to figure it out
    I meant with regard to handicapping, not line shopping. Also, there is a reason I put "as simple" in quotation marks in my last post.

  31. #31
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by donjuan View Post
    I meant with regard to handicapping, not line shopping. Also, there is a reason I put "as simple" in quotation marks in my last post.
    Fair enough.

    You don't factor in emotion, motivation, revenge, etc? Intangibles are as important as stats sometimes, if not moreso. Can't imagine throwing them out and just being formulaic with the numbers in my handicapping.

  32. #32
    wtf
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    well done usc! wish i read this thread pre-game...

  33. #33
    MonkeyF0cker
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    I was on Oakland +3.5 based on purely numbers. My model indicated a 2.4% edge. Factors that cannot be quantified such as revenge, needing a win, etc. tend to even out in the long term. A perfect example is the Wisconsin/Iowa game on Saturday. Wisconsin sorely needed that win for consideration for a decent bowl game. They laid an egg.

  34. #34
    VegasDave
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    Impressive MF. Would love to have a model that made things easier for me!

  35. #35
    yisman
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    people don't listen.

    Quote Originally Posted by unde0087 View Post
    we heard the same arguement by many about the Jets/Dolphins game in week 1 and Jets won and covered that game, same thing here
    Quote Originally Posted by 2Leesan View Post
    As for me, this is a no brainer. Jets win and cover easily!
    Quote Originally Posted by kieranrox View Post
    Yea its a tricky one. But lose the mind games and its pretty clear the jets are the stronger team.
    Quote Originally Posted by Always Somethin' View Post
    IF Kiffin was coach, OAK would be the play, but he's not so Ill take the Jets -3.
    Quote Originally Posted by aiyerrc View Post
    very well thought out and well explained, and i know i am very new to SBR, but i believe you contradicted your own research. a much better team is playing a much worse team. the favored team relies on what the underdog is weak at. you explain all the reason why the jets should easily cover -3 and then you pick the complete opposite because you dont "trust" the books? yes of course upsets happen, but 8 out of 10 times they dont. go with ur research and take the jets. they are a "sure thing"

    jets for 2 dimer for me.
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