1. #1
    VegasDave
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    Vegas Dave's College Football Picks Week 8 (Video)!



    Don't have Houston in the video but its also one of my plays. Here's the write-up:

    Houston -13.0: Last week, SMU showed us why Tulsa was a trap game by exposing Tulsa's terrible defense and moving the ball at will. Houston's defense is not this bad; and while their offense may not be AS explosive, it is certainly close. Houston averages over 400 yards passing per game and should have no trouble at all moving the ball on a very bad SMU passing defense. This spread is off due to the fact that the public now has a new-found respect for SMU after keeping it so close on Tulsa; Houston should be giving up more than 13 points, and at this spread they are a very good bet to win this game by two touchdowns.

    Good luck!

  2. #2
    Dbldown11
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    Love your Rice pick

  3. #3
    CaneDawg
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    Bet Rice earlier today along with VTECH.

    LOL

  4. #4
    CaneDawg
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    Is that Jennifer Love Hewitt or your wife as your avatar

  5. #5
    TPowell
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    with you on Virginia Tech. I'm thinking of pulling the trigger on Vandy, but I'm thinking it's a sucker line. BOL to ya

  6. #6
    gm2022girl
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    Nice Video Dave!

  7. #7
    Dante799
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    goodluck Dave, I'm with you on Rice...

  8. #8
    hoopster42
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    i like your video and enjoy your takes on the games, 2 things though, i would not put even a dollar on north texas or idaho on the road. north texas's defense will get lit up by ul-monroe who does have the skill guys to put up pts, and idaho lost by 25 at utah state and 28 at sdsu, 2 very bad football teams, so how bad is idaho? very bad. i trust la. tech's pedestrian offense to do more at home than idaho's d can do on the road, la tech with short fields thanks to a solid defense can cover the 20.5 more easily than you think

    good luck

  9. #9
    ICE-BLOOD
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    nice video
    1 of your plays has me wondering

    idaho getting around 3 td's seems like alot for 2 bad teams
    line seems too high

    idaho has showed some offense and should get their 20 or so points
    defense gives up a ton tho, 6 or 7 td's per game

    latech has shown little to lay 3 td's
    looks like usual starting qb bennett will sit, rightfully so
    maybe this qb change, against a bad defense, and home edge will allow latech to cover

    idaho looks like the play here but something doesnt add up

  10. #10
    awholelottalumps
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    Toledo owns N.Illinois as they are 13-1 last 14 SU vs them and they have won 6 straight at N.Illinois.If it aint broke don't fix it.

  11. #11
    awholelottalumps
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    I wouldn't bet on North Texas ever.You can't polish a shit my friend.Other shit teams are Idaho,Utah State,Wyoming and Washington State.

  12. #12
    ZBOIZ
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    Quote Originally Posted by awholelottalumps View Post
    I wouldn't bet on North Texas ever.You can't polish a shit my friend.Other shit teams are Idaho,Utah State,Wyoming and Washington State.
    Yea I was thinking the same! North Texas would'nt get a dime from me.

  13. #13
    VegasDave
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    North Texas hate is exactly why they are getting 18.5 points. When bookmakers make lines, they factor in public perception. They know how much everyone knows North Texas sucks. They aren't going to just keep giving money away to people fading this team.

    North Texas has good QB play and runs a spread passing offense that I believe will give ULM fits. ULM wins of course, but I think it'll be a close game with North Texas hanging tough.

    I know it is scary, but you have to bet on bad teams sometimes when the situation is right. I believe these situations are right. I've done fairly well on dogs this year; hopefully they keep that trend alive.

  14. #14
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaneDawg View Post
    Is that Jennifer Love Hewitt or your wife as your avatar
    I wish it were one-in-the-same, but it is only JLH

  15. #15
    ZBOIZ
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    Quote Originally Posted by usckingsfan31 View Post
    North Texas hate is exactly why they are getting 18.5 points. When bookmakers make lines, they factor in public perception. They know how much everyone knows North Texas sucks. They aren't going to just keep giving money away to people fading this team.

    North Texas has good QB play and runs a spread passing offense that I believe will give ULM fits. ULM wins of course, but I think it'll be a close game with North Texas hanging tough.

    I know it is scary, but you have to bet on bad teams sometimes when the situation is right. I believe these situations are right. I've done fairly well on dogs this year; hopefully they keep that trend alive.
    You have guts my friend!!!

  16. #16
    awhitejackson
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    Man...love the picks...I live in Morgantown and the only thing we dislike about Pittsburgh are the Panthers (eat shit Pitt!!)....Huge Pens, Steelers, and Pirates fan... That Steelers jersey is my sign for some luck this week.....GL

  17. #17
    VegasDave
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    Polomalu baby! Unlike my Cardinals Leinart jersey and my Lions Mike Williams jersey I can actually wear Troy's out in public haha

  18. #18
    awhitejackson
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    Quote Originally Posted by usckingsfan31 View Post
    Polomalu baby! Unlike my Cardinals Leinart jersey and my Lions Mike Williams jersey I can actually wear Troy's out in public haha
    Yeah I cant wait to wear my Pacman Jones Prison league jersey out sometime soon!!! LOL...Well at least Steve Slaton is doing better than his last year here...I try to root on the Texans for him but that Miami ATS loss killed...

    Sent an email for the newsletter check it out....GL

  19. #19
    hoopster42
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    Quote Originally Posted by usckingsfan31 View Post
    I know it is scary, but you have to bet on bad teams sometimes when the situation is right. I believe these situations are right. I've done fairly well on dogs this year; hopefully they keep that trend alive.
    i agree completely, you have to look at bad teams sometimes, but not on the road against an opponent who although theyve been struggling, have got firepower, this is a get healthy type of game for monroe, they played well at arkie st last wk so their not on a downward spiral, i think theyll at north texas as the team to take out their frustrations on

  20. #20
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by hoopster42 View Post
    i agree completely, you have to look at bad teams sometimes, but not on the road against an opponent who although theyve been struggling, have got firepower, this is a get healthy type of game for monroe, they played well at arkie st last wk so their not on a downward spiral, i think theyll at north texas as the team to take out their frustrations on
    I think North Texas will keep up with them offensively. Maybe 38 - 24, 45 - 31, something like that. We'll see though, you may be right

  21. #21
    rjt721
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    With you on Georgia. Vandy's going to have an awfully tough time moving the ball on UGA's defense.

    Best of luck this weekend.

  22. #22
    Justin7
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    Don't worry when picks lose. If you had the right side, who cares? Not winning players anyway.

  23. #23
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    Don't worry when picks lose. If you had the right side, who cares? Not winning players anyway.
    Agreed whole-heartedly. The tricky thing is trying to be subjective when looking back and deciding whether or not you were on the right side or not. Wins always feel like genius at work and losses always feel like I got cheated

  24. #24
    clowncar
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    Ashamed to admit that I really enjoy your videos each week.

    Agree with you concerning the value in the Ohio State line.

    When discussing the BYU game from a few weeks back vs UCLA and the toledo at Northern Illinois game , you pointed out that sometimes when a spread looks off to a particular side you should often bet the side they are trying to price you out of. Any concern at all that this applies to the Ohio State line ?

    Enjoy your threads every week. Keep up the good work.

  25. #25
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by clowncar View Post
    Ashamed to admit that I really enjoy your videos each week.
    Why are you ashamed to admit this?

    Quote Originally Posted by clowncar View Post
    Agree with you concerning the value in the Ohio State line.

    When discussing the BYU game from a few weeks back vs UCLA and the toledo at Northern Illinois game , you pointed out that sometimes when a spread looks off to a particular side you should often bet the side they are trying to price you out of. Any concern at all that this applies to the Ohio State line ?
    Not at all. The game is in Michigan State, they are 6 - 1 and it is hard to count opening week against a team. Ohio State has not looked sharp at all on offense, and this is only their 3rd road game so far; only Pryor's second as a starter. Michigan state plays smart ball and runs the ball well and they are at home; I think 3 points is a very fair line and I'm sure you will find plenty of people on MSU here. If ANYTHING, I'd say the +3 is more inviting than the -3, considering OSU is also 1 - 5 ATS. I think the line is very fair as it is; I'm just counting on OSU to show up.

    Quote Originally Posted by clowncar View Post
    Enjoy your threads every week. Keep up the good work.
    Thank you

  26. #26
    Justin7
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    USCK,

    I'd love to see your "closing line action point summary".

    Each pick you've made this year: how much did the closing line move in your favor?
    I.E. if you give out USC-20, and the line closed -22, that's 2 points in your favor. -18 would be 2 against. This would tell me more than any win/loss summary you could give.

  27. #27
    l7ustin
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    USCK,

    I'd love to see your "closing line action point summary".

    Each pick you've made this year: how much did the closing line move in your favor?
    I.E. if you give out USC-20, and the line closed -22, that's 2 points in your favor. -18 would be 2 against. This would tell me more than any win/loss summary you could give.
    Is there a way to tell which way the line will move? I mean it has to go up or down, how do you know whether you will gain or lose points?? If he waits till kick off and the line goes in his favor, SWEET but what if he waits till kick off and the line moves the opposite way and now he is facing his pick to cover a few more points,

  28. #28
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    USCK,

    I'd love to see your "closing line action point summary".

    Each pick you've made this year: how much did the closing line move in your favor?
    I.E. if you give out USC-20, and the line closed -22, that's 2 points in your favor. -18 would be 2 against. This would tell me more than any win/loss summary you could give.
    Agree wholeheartedly, thats a great way to measure.

    The problems is, my video lines are not always what I would get games at. Very often on Monday I like a game a lot at -6 and would play it then and there, but I don't record my video Monday because I wait on over-unders or I am still fine-tuning other plays. Then Tuesday rolls around and it is now 6.5 everywhere. When I make the video I always use up to date lines; this hurts me more often then it helps me, but I want to put out lines current with my video's releases, as it doesn't do the public any good for me to post my old line that they can no longer get.

    A few times this year I've had to cancel a play I had written down for my vid (that went on to win) because it moved through a 3 or 7 before I recorded the video and it was no longer a high-value bet.

  29. #29
    VegasDave
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    Also interesting; I'm 0 - 6 on UNDERS this year. I don't think I'm that God-awful of a capper on them, they just haven't gone my way this year. If you ignored my unders this season and just followed me on Sides and Overs, you'd be hitting 59%!

  30. #30
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    USCK,

    I'd love to see your "closing line action point summary".

    Each pick you've made this year: how much did the closing line move in your favor?
    I.E. if you give out USC-20, and the line closed -22, that's 2 points in your favor. -18 would be 2 against. This would tell me more than any win/loss summary you could give.
    Wheres a good place to go to see accurate closing lines from past weeks?

  31. #31
    wal66
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    Quote Originally Posted by usckingsfan31 View Post
    Wheres a good place to go to see accurate closing lines from past weeks?

    There are others I'm sure but one free service that has pretty close to spot on across the board numbers is wagerline. You can get up to 2006 results for college and pro.

  32. #32
    VegasDave
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    Quote Originally Posted by wal66 View Post
    There are others I'm sure but one free service that has pretty close to spot on across the board numbers is wagerline. You can get up to 2006 results for college and pro.
    Perfect, thank you. I'll have to check my stats later today after I get some sleep

  33. #33
    wal66
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    I used wagerline lines history to do a spreadsheet in another forum for double digit dogs at closing lines in the NFL. During the active week you can track line movement and percentages but after weeks end you can only see closing numbers. It is very useful though. Oh and by the way that double digit history for the NFL for the NFL is pretty amazing information. If anyones interested to see how their teams matches up as a dog or a fav in that spot I could post.

  34. #34
    VegasDave
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    Thanks for the info wal!

    Now get out of my thread! This is about ME!

    (Haha, j/k )

    Always nice to find new resources on the web to use!

  35. #35
    AMBlai01
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    Really liking the Rice pick. That is the only one that I am with you on and as of right now I am not against you on anything so as always GL!!!

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