[bettilimbroke999]

Unfukinreal, took NYG ML and couldn't even fukin cash a fukin lock NFL ticket on ML undefeated best team versus the worst team, wtf is goin on why is every fukin game I bet on rigged, 35-14 Browns unfukinbelievable, the Browns had only scored 4 TDs all year until playing the best team in the NFL when they score 4 TDS IN ONE GAME

I GIVE UP, I WILL NEVER BET OVER 20 BUCKS ON AN NFL GAME AGAIN, NFL SUCKS

[reno cool]

all you guys insist on betting big favs moneyline. stop

if you can't find a gd play at reasonable odds, don't bet

[ertl09]

Browns are getting healthier, a team that was 10-6 last year with many additions to the team this year @ home for +300 I'll take that anyday

[smitch124]

The NFL is way too wacky to lay any kinda wood, much better off with big dogs from this point on...

[ertl09]

The NFL is way too wacky to lay any kinda wood, much better off with big dogs from this point on...

home dogs yes, but also there are always reasons or hints of upsets, for instance washinton winning 2 big divisional games or cleveland at home off a bye, KC at home against in a rivaly game(denver game)

[I.R.B]

Man i feel you im also not betting foots anymore due to getting monkey raped by the books... Unless i see a great game like i did this past week. Jets -6

[Tosser]

another guy who lost a lock <--- lol, nothing to see here let´s move on peeps

[donjuan]

all you guys insist on betting big favs moneyline. stop

The Patriots Super Bowl moneyline was an excellent example of a great ML fav bet, especially if you line shopped. And no, I'm not being sarcastic.

[betplom]

The Patriots Super Bowl moneyline was an excellent example of a great ML fav bet, especially if you line shopped. And no, I'm not being sarcastic.

Nothing feels better than getting -380 when everyone else got -400 and the wager loses.

[durito]

Funny this summer when you told me MLB was impossible to beat and that NFL was the way to go and I laughed.

[donjuan]

Nothing feels better than getting -380 when everyone else got -400 and the wager loses.

You don't get it. And that, alone, is not why it was an excellent bet.

[treece]

Books have it way too easy. The money I made tonight was peanuts compared to the money they made.

[durito]

Books have it way too easy. The money I made tonight was peanuts compared to the money they made.

So start a book.

[betplom]

You don't get it. And that, alone, is not why it was an excellent bet.

I really didn't get it with the Patriots, my response above was pure mockery, most here would call a losing wager on a -400 favourite a bad play.

In all seriousness, why was it an excellent bet?

[rm18]

Should of took will the Pats win or tie a quarter at -10000

[rm18]

I really didn't get it with the Patriots, my response above was pure mockery, most here would call a losing wager on a -400 favourite a bad play.

In all seriousness, why was it an excellent bet?

He feels the Pats win more than 80% of the time in that spot, and I agree

[Tosser]

no he prolly just means scalping

[ryanXL977]

dont lay on the road, ever
EVER, not in nfl anyhow

[treece]

So start a book.

Easier said than done.

[reno cool]

The Patriots Super Bowl moneyline was an excellent example of a great ML fav bet, especially if you line shopped. And no, I'm not being sarcastic.

I wouldn't say its impossible to find a play on fav moneyline using a certain criteria. However, the common notion is to find a seemingly superior team and bet. I believe this is a primary factor for sportsbook profits.

[bettilimbroke999]

Funny this summer when you told me MLB was impossible to beat and that NFL was the way to go and I laughed.

I was wrong, MLB AND NFL are impossible to beat, only value in sports betting is in college games, I've been owning my bookie on Saturday and giving every fukin cent and then some back on Sunday. If you like betting coinflips at 55/50 then by all means bet the NFL and if you like taking -200 on Lester b/c he's solid as a fukin rock then watchin him give up 5 runs in the first 3 innings and lose 8-1 then by all means bet MLB. As for me, I like money, so I'm gonna bet NCAAB and NCAAF +EV bets instead betting this fukin pro BS where they play like god today then play like dogshit tomorrow

[durito]

what about lester -170?

[bettilimbroke999]

what about lester -170?

Whatever odds you got they lost 8-1, Lester pitched like shit, every bettor on the planet had Bos and the under and got raped on that game

[durito]

So would you bet a game with a 63.8% chance of winning at -170?

[MonkeyF0cker]

He'll never understand, durito. Haven't you been over this with him multiple times already?

[betplom]

So would you bet a game with a 63.8% chance of winning at -170?

How does one determine the probability (ie 63.8%) with any certainty?

[reno cool]

we're talking two different things here Durito.

I'd like to know how you come up with an exact%.
Whatever criteria you're using can never have all relevant info. (as opposed to a card game)

So, in such a scenario it seems misleading to ask question after the fact.

[bettilimbroke999]

MLB sucks and NFL sucks, admittedly I'll throw small bets on them out of boredom but they are always -EV bets b/c when two pro teams play each other there is no way of calculating the true win percentage, when Lester takes the mound do you think he's going to go nuts and give up 4 runs in the first 2 innings while Garza gives up 1 run through 6 innings, of course not, no math calculation is going to tell ya that Lester feels like throwing underhanded today.

[Wilforth]

Both the NYG and Red Sox games were bought over. The results are far from natural. These athletes earn money from dubious sources.

[MonkeyF0cker]

we're talking two different things here Durito.

I'd like to know how you come up with an exact%.
Whatever criteria you're using can never have all relevant info. (as opposed to a card game)

So, in such a scenario it seems misleading to ask question after the fact.

You do so with a win probability model.

[donjuan]

I don't mean scalping. Look at what the ML was relative to the spread.

As for bettil, well he's possibly the dumbest poster on here, and that takes a lot of effort. It's pretty amusing watching him throw around phrases like EV without the slightest clue what they mean, though.

[betplom]

You do so with a win probability model.

As a sports bettor I'm embarrassed to say I have no idea what this is.

[MonkeyF0cker]

MLB sucks and NFL sucks, admittedly I'll throw small bets on them out of boredom but they are always -EV bets b/c when two pro teams play each other there is no way of calculating the true win percentage, when Lester takes the mound do you think he's going to go nuts and give up 4 runs in the first 2 innings while Garza gives up 1 run through 6 innings, of course not, no math calculation is going to tell ya that Lester feels like throwing underhanded today.

You're comparing apples to oranges. Just because your model says that he and the Red Sox are 67.3% or 99.2% does not mean that they WILL win. I hope that you understand that a fraction of something does not mean the whole...

[bettilimbroke999]

You do so with a win probability model.

No clue what that is, also donjuan learned to tie his shoelaces today congrats

[bettilimbroke999]

You're comparing apples to oranges. Just because your model says that he and the Red Sox are 67.3% or 99.2% does not mean that they WILL win. I hope that you understand that a fraction of something does not mean the whole...

I get what your saying I just don't believe you can calculate that accurately what the true win percentage is, no way of saying Lester will blow up in this game 37.7% of the time and Garza will pitch great 62.3%, sounds like BS to me