1. #1
    Tsoprano
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    Jets -6 against the Bengals this weekend

    anyone else like this?


  2. #2
    bmw530i
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    Hmmmm.... I haven't looked at this pick...but the Jets are on a roll...and the Bengals although they played the Cowboys tough til the end...
    have so much infighting amongst there team...they can blow up quickly..

  3. #3
    bigboydan
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    Is Palmer playing?

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  4. #4
    keystonekid
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    Not me.

  5. #5
    ezeblazin
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    Bengals got this, as long as Palmer is in there. They just went to the wire with two of the best teams in the league....Jets are not that good.

  6. #6
    slacker00
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    Quote Originally Posted by ezeblazin View Post
    Bengals got this, as long as Palmer is in there. They just went to the wire with two of the best teams in the league....Jets are not that good.
    I completely agree. I've been ringing the bell for the Bengals in the various other threads all week. The Bengals are playing very tough right now, people will underestimate them due to their record. If anything, the Bengals are scratching for a win to get rid of that zero in the win column.

    The Jets are NOT on a roll. They haven't looked all that cohesive all seasonl They beat the Cards at home with Warner turning the ball over 6 times! Can they expect Palmer to do the same, I think not. Also, despite Favre tossing TDs left and right, the defense kept letting the Cards crawl back into the game. That's why Favre had to keep scoring, because the Cards kept coming back. The Jets are not that good, especially with a hungry team like the Bengals coming to town.

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  7. #7
    Italia_NYC
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    Bengals all day.

  8. #8
    I.R.B
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    I like anyteam coming off a bye week playing the Bungulz...

  9. #9
    I.R.B
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    Quote Originally Posted by ezeblazin View Post
    Bengals got this, as long as Palmer is in there. They just went to the wire with two of the best teams in the league....Jets are not that good.
    Thats not enough to lean on the Bengals... Thay suck and thats that... Jets coming off a bye week rested and ready to go sounds like a good bet to me at -6 ... Jets win by 10

  10. #10
    Italia_NYC
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    The Jets blow; and the Bengals are the best 0-5 team I've ever seen. I pitty the Jets this week. Poor saps.

  11. #11
    slacker00
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    The Bengals DON'T suck. Have you watched the games? They look a lot more sharp than the Jets. They've just played much tougher opponents.

    Granted, I'm not putting the Bengals in the top 10 of my power rankings, maybe not even in my top 20, but the Jets are definitely not in my top 20, they are just not a good team.

    The Jets are a team of veteran retreads piecemealed together relying on the gunslinger arm of Brett Favre. The Bengals have Carson Palmer. To be honest, I'll take Carson. Brett's 6 TD showing is too fresh in everyone's mind and they forget that Carson is actually a better QB all around at this point in their respective careers.

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  12. #12
    Italia_NYC
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    Very good points and very well said Slacker. Could not have put it any better myself.

  13. #13
    bmw530i
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    Guys relax...I had the Bengals last week+16 and on the ML...
    This week I feel the Jets win....and cover. But it's cute how you both are always in the same thread...lol
    better luck to you both

  14. #14
    LT Profits
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    Bengals are actually underrated. No they are not great, but they are better than people give them credit for and they took two of the best teams in the NFL down to the wire.

    The Jets remain overrated because of Favre and they have been unable to develop a running game, which could be an issue here because the Bengals rank seventh in the NFL in pass defense.

  15. #15
    I.R.B
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    Jets can score, they scored 66 points in 2 games at home...

    Bengals give up big points on the road, 74 points in 3 games...

    There D aint no good, There offence is horrible with some of the best playes in the NFL... This team is sad... I will be real surprised if they win this game...

  16. #16
    slacker00
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    The Jets remain overrated because of Favre and they have been unable to develop a running game, which could be an issue here because the Bengals rank seventh in the NFL in pass defense.
    Great point.

    Another point is that the Jets defense really can't stop the pass, IMHO. Palmer & a talented WR corps will really cut them up. All of the pressure will fall on Favre to keep the team in the game. That's when Favre starts to toss picks.

    bmw530i: I'm doing all my talking BEFORE the game. I might be right, I might be wrong. In any case, I won't be crowing afterwards. I'll already be moved on to the next week's games. That's how I roll.

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  17. #17
    MonkeyF0cker
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    I laid off this one, with a slight lean to the Jets. Sharp money is on the Rams, 49ers, and Cardinals on Sunday...

  18. #18
    slacker00
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    Quote Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker View Post
    I laid off this one, with a slight lean to the Jets. Sharp money is on the Rams, 49ers, and Cardinals on Sunday...
    Dude, I don't like ANY of these plays. lmao.

    Maybe the Cards play is ok. I'm not playing the game, but the Pacman drama can't be helping this team, not to mention T.O. seems especially psychotic recently.

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  19. #19
    MonkeyF0cker
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    Most wouldn't like them. But that's what my model and betting trends indicate as sharp plays. I really don't see how the Redskins should be giving as many points as the Patriots were last year. The Eagles just aren't the same with an ailing Westbrook. And the Cardinals are a very underrated team this year, while the Cowboys aren't clicking at full steam...

  20. #20
    slacker00
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    The Redskins aren't laying points like the Pats last year. If last year's Pats were hosting these Rams, the spread woulda been maybe Pats -31. Yes, it's just that bad. Remember the Pats were over 17 point favorites even against legitimate teams. Your analysis is simply wrong here. The Rams are by far the worst NFL team at this very moment. The Redskins are one of the hottest at this very moment. The Redskins are at home. Plus interim coaches are 4-13-1 ATS in their first game as interim coach since 1990. Everything adds up to this one being messy for the Rams.

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  21. #21
    MonkeyF0cker
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    By far the worst? Ever heard of a team out of Detroit called the Lions? Care to tell me how many games the Patriots covered last year with a spread of 13+? And interim coach trends have absolutely nothing to do with this game...

  22. #22
    fiveteamer
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    Jets can't stop anybody.

    At least Cincy seems to have some sort of defence.

  23. #23
    slacker00
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    Quote Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker View Post
    By far the worst? Ever heard of a team out of Detroit called the Lions? Care to tell me how many games the Patriots covered last year with a spread of 13+? And interim coach trends have absolutely nothing to do with this game...
    Pats were 4-4 ATS with spreads over 13', they won their first 4 ATS in a row before the lines got exaggerated and they started laying ridiculous wood. Right now is the right time to hammer these lines before they get bloated.

    The Lions are better than the Rams. At least the Lions can score.

    Also, Linnehan got canned, Haslett is currently interim coach for the Rams. You must've been living in a cave.

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  24. #24
    Mr Handicapable
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    Quote Originally Posted by slacker00 View Post
    The Redskins aren't laying points like the Pats last year. If last year's Pats were hosting these Rams, the spread woulda been maybe Pats -31. Yes, it's just that bad. Remember the Pats were over 17 point favorites even against legitimate teams. Your analysis is simply wrong here. The Rams are by far the worst NFL team at this very moment. The Redskins are one of the hottest at this very moment. The Redskins are at home. Plus interim coaches are 4-13-1 ATS in their first game as interim coach since 1990. Everything adds up to this one being messy for the Rams.
    There's a trend w/winless teams coming off a bye as a dog that goes back to 1991 that is 17-2 ATS! Trends can be broken pretty easily but I would be careful w/the Skins!

    I like the Jets/Bengals Over 44.5! Favre/Palmer vs 2 struggling Ds

  25. #25
    bmw530i
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    slacker I do all my talking on my spreadsheet....
    Not 3 picks like you have...hahaha

  26. #26
    slacker00
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    Quote Originally Posted by bmw530i View Post
    slacker I do all my talking on my spreadsheet....
    Not 3 picks like you have...hahaha
    I've been making picks on here for years. Look over the threads for yourself.

    I just discovered the spreadsheet yesterday and put my NFL picks for this week on there to examine how to use it. Because I haven't implemented the spreadsheet yet does not invalidate my handicapping skills. If anything, your argument negates your credibility regarding rational thought.

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  27. #27
    MonkeyF0cker
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    Quote Originally Posted by slacker00 View Post
    Pats were 4-4 ATS with spreads over 13', they won their first 4 ATS in a row before the lines got exaggerated and they started laying ridiculous wood. Right now is the right time to hammer these lines before they get bloated.

    The Lions are better than the Rams. At least the Lions can score.

    Also, Linnehan got canned, Haslett is currently interim coach for the Rams. You must've been living in a cave.
    Three of those losses ATS were games they won by 3 points and the other by 10. They didn't need inflated lines to lose. And yes, I've been living in a cave. I have no idea what I'm doing...

  28. #28
    slacker00
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    Quote Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker View Post
    Three of those losses ATS were games they won by 3 points and the other by 10. They didn't need inflated lines to lose. And yes, I've been living in a cave. I have no idea what I'm doing...
    What about when they laid 22 1/2 to Miami at home in December and only won 28-7? I'm not sure what kind of information you are using. What site provides your invalid information?

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  29. #29
    slacker00
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Handicapable View Post
    There's a trend w/winless teams coming off a bye as a dog that goes back to 1991 that is 17-2 ATS! Trends can be broken pretty easily but I would be careful w/the Skins!
    Hi Mr. H. I just wanted to acknowlege that I have takent your 17-2 trend into consideration with this pick. Unlike some others on this site, you seem to be providing valid information and opinion. Unfortunately we will be on direct opposite sites with this play. I'm looking forward to your further trends and analysis here on SBR.

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  30. #30
    MonkeyF0cker
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    Ahh yeah. They were 4-5 ATS with a spread of 13+. Eagles, Ravens, Giants were all 3 point wins, with a 10 point win against the Jets.

  31. #31
    jjgold
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    Huge question is can Cincy get up for game?

    They had two draining game already

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  32. #32
    MonkeyF0cker
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    So one loss may account for your inflated line theory...

  33. #33
    fiveteamer
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Huge question is can Cincy get up for game?

    They had two draining game already

    Why do you post like a china man sometimes?

  34. #34
    hakrjak
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    My book doesn't even have the line for this out yet, but I'm tempted to get all crazy and go Bengals on the ML... We can't have all these winless teams in the NFL. Someone is going to flip this week, and this is the Bengals best chance to win one so far.

    - Hakrjak

  35. #35
    slacker00
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    Quote Originally Posted by MonkeyF0cker View Post
    So one loss may account for your inflated line theory...
    Working backwards
    SD @ Pats -13, Final 21-12
    Jax @ Pats -12.5, Final 31-20
    Pats -12.5 @ NYG, Final 38-35
    Miami @ Pats -22.5, Final 28-7
    NYJ @ Pats -18.5, Final 20-10
    Pitts @ Pats -11, Final 34-13
    Pats -18.5 @ Baltimore, Final 27-24
    Philly @ Pats -24, Final 31-28
    Pats -15.5 @ Buff, Final 56-10
    Pats -4.5 @ Indy, Final 24-20

    Pats went 8-0 before that last game. That game is really when the lines got outta whack. If you don't think those lines above are bloated when betting the NFL, you simply haven't been paying attention. I don't care how good a team is, they shouldn't be laying 24 to teams like Philly who despite last season's record is was still as solid as the teams that put them in all of those NFC championship games.

    My point is that you can't look back and say, whoah, they only won by 3. That's retroactive thinking. Here on SBR we were all commenting on those 20+ point lines and taking the dogs the whole time. That's just insane points to be laying in the NFL. I'm not sure what planet you've been on to question any of these facts.

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