[jjgold]

12:30PM EST

Nadal -270
Djokovic +245


R. Nadal -3.5 -126
OVER 22 -108

N. Djokovic +3.5 +114
UNDER 22 -102


Best Rivalry in tennis now

DJOKOVIC has 31 straight match wins in a row, one of greatest tennis runs of all times.

[BettingWizard]

his streak is done

[flyingillini]

I am on Nadal in this spot.

[JOHON8]

-270 for a guy who is dominated by Djokovic this year.

I'll pass.

[jjgold]

If your going to play it bet the dog
No value at all betting Nadal

[ha1ogen]

definitely lots of value on djokovic

[iMxth3xbossx5000]

I'm actually liking Nadal here. If theres anybody thats ever going to defeat Djokovic, it's Rafael Nadal and that will be tomorrow.

[Magic62]

Nadal is the king of clay,his record on that surface vs Djoko stands currently at 8-0.

Max Djokovic going to get here is a set and even that is not a guarantee.

I think the best shot for reasonable odds will be playing total games and or sets betting.\

Djoko can't beat Nadal on that surface.the max he can get here will be losing in 3 sets.

[Magic62]

I'm actually liking Nadal here. If theres anybody thats ever going to defeat Djokovic, it's Rafael Nadal and that will be tomorrow.

LMAO

You make it sounds as if Nadal hasn't done it 15 times already

[ha1ogen]

LMAO

You make it sounds as if Nadal hasn't done it 15 times already

djokovic is a totally different player than he was when he lost those 15 times

[iMxth3xbossx5000]

LMAO

You make it sounds as if Nadal hasn't done it 15 times already

From what I see, nobody else really stands a chance against beating the guy other then Nadal. The only player other then Nadal I MIGHT consider giving a slight chance on defeating Djokovic, even though its unlikely to happen, would be David Ferrer...

[BrianLaverty]

From what I see, nobody else really stands a chance against beating the guy other then Nadal. The only player other then Nadal I MIGHT consider giving a slight chance on defeating Djokovic, even though its unlikely to happen, would be David Ferrer...

Both Belucci and Ferrer had plenty of oppurtunities to beat him.... Joker isn't playing great tennis this tourney.

[yisman]

Nadal is the king of clay,his record on that surface vs Djoko stands currently at 8-0.

Max Djokovic going to get here is a set and even that is not a guarantee.

lol obviously it's not a guarantee

no guarantee nadal wins either

Nadal deserves to be a big favorite, but if I bet, it'll be on the underdog.

[thirtytwo]

The value in this line IS on Nadal and theres a TON of it. Novak's streak this year has been made mostly on hard courts, which is his favorite surface, and he hasnt faced much quality opposition yet this clay season so he kept it going so far.
Now Rafa is a true exceptional player on clay. Nole has won 31 straight matches overall this year, but do you know how many straight clay matches has Rafa won to date? How about 38? And how about 118-4 record on clay last 5 years? I wouldnt write off 8-0 head to head on clay either...
Ask yourself, do you really want to go against all this getting ONLY +240? This is the best price we get on Nadal on this surface in last 3 years! This is the definition of term 'value'. And the winning streak of Djokovic has created this value!
Rafa can lose this and Nole can continue his streak, but Nadal -270 is the side where the value is.

[iMxth3xbossx5000]

The value in this line IS on Nadal and theres a TON of it. Novak's streak this year has been made mostly on hard courts, which is his favorite surface, and he hasnt faced much quality opposition yet this clay season so he kept it going so far.
Now Rafa is a true exceptional player on clay. Nole has won 31 straight matches overall this year, but do you know how many straight clay matches has Rafa won to date? How about 38? And how about 118-4 record on clay last 5 years? I wouldnt write off 8-0 head to head on clay either...
Ask yourself, do you really want to go against all this getting ONLY +240? This is the best price we get on Nadal on this surface in last 3 years! This is the definition of term 'value'. And the winning streak of Djokovic has created this value!
Rafa can lose this and Nole can continue his streak, but Nadal -270 is the side where the value is.

Very, very well written out. You analyzed that out very well and I do agree. I'm gonna be on Nadal on this matchup myself. For this price, it's just to hard to pass up. Everybodys gonna be jumping on Djkovic because they believe it's the only time they'll find him as an underdog, especially for that price.... but in the end... it's the winning player that matters, and that will be Nadal. Djkovics winning streak comes to an end today. I predict a close 2-1 game

[tony_come]

I like Dallas NBA

Sunday

[and24]

The value in this line IS on Nadal and theres a TON of it. Novak's streak this year has been made mostly on hard courts, which is his favorite surface, and he hasnt faced much quality opposition yet this clay season so he kept it going so far.
Now Rafa is a true exceptional player on clay. Nole has won 31 straight matches overall this year, but do you know how many straight clay matches has Rafa won to date? How about 38? And how about 118-4 record on clay last 5 years? I wouldnt write off 8-0 head to head on clay either...
Ask yourself, do you really want to go against all this getting ONLY +240? This is the best price we get on Nadal on this surface in last 3 years! This is the definition of term 'value'. And the winning streak of Djokovic has created this value!
Rafa can lose this and Nole can continue his streak, but Nadal -270 is the side where the value is.

I totally agree with you. Even if i lose this one,doesn't make me sad.

[makman]

Both Belucci and Ferrer had plenty of oppurtunities to beat him.... Joker isn't playing great tennis this tourney.

I guess we watched different games, you and me...
When you watch Djoko, watch his face, if he is pushing his maximum or not,
look when he starts to play his game, and when he decides to let his opponent play.Look how his shots gets more accurate in the second set against Belluci, just after Belluci had broken his serve(or Djoko let him broke)

Both Ferrer and Belluci didnt have any chance to beat him imo.


He has something to say, which he had hidden. But for this game against Nadal, i will pass.
No value for Nadal, Djoko choice is highly risky against the king of clay.

[delpiero7]

This is the biggest price we'll see for Nadal on clay for a while IMO.

Obviously the fact that Madrid plays quicker than normal clay courts is the reason behind the price (as well as Nole's amazing streak). But even if Djokovic wins this, I can't really see him being any less of an underdog should they meet in Rome next week, where conditions are more 'normal' in terms of clay courts tennis, thus favouring Nadal more.

Somebody has already pointed out Nadal's 118-4 record on clay in the last 5 years. One of those defeats (vs Juan Carlos Ferrero in Rome 2008) was definitely down to injury. I won't argue against Soderling's win at Roland Garros 2009 because he played a brilliant match, irrespective of whether or not Nadal was injured.

So, even with Djokovic's amazing win streak, the price on Nadal is value. Won't be seeing these kinds of prices prematch on Nadal in a clay court match until he's confined to a wheelchair.

[makman]

The value in this line IS on Nadal and theres a TON of it. Novak's streak this year has been made mostly on hard courts, which is his favorite surface, and he hasnt faced much quality opposition yet this clay season so he kept it going so far.
Now Rafa is a true exceptional player on clay. Nole has won 31 straight matches overall this year, but do you know how many straight clay matches has Rafa won to date? How about 38? And how about 118-4 record on clay last 5 years? I wouldnt write off 8-0 head to head on clay either...
Ask yourself, do you really want to go against all this getting ONLY +240? This is the best price we get on Nadal on this surface in last 3 years! This is the definition of term 'value'. And the winning streak of Djokovic has created this value!
Rafa can lose this and Nole can continue his streak, but Nadal -270 is the side where the value is.

I totally agree with you, Nadal is the favorite here, and it seems like Djoko's streak came to an end.
But the value is very low for Nadal, and very high for Djoko,
Both of them is challenging each other by letting their opponents win the first set in the semis, Djoko went even further and let even Belluci break his serve in the second set (This is comletely my opinion, many would not agree)
I will probably pass on this one...
If i play, i will put some small shot on Djoko, just a tribute, because i cashed very good with him against Nadal in the Miami and Indian Wells finals (where imo Djoko outmuscled Nadal when he played his real game, nomatter the scores were 2-1) and i have 5 reasons for this
1. Djoko didnt show his game completely to anyone yet this season on clay.
2. Djoko didnt enter neither MonteCarlo nor Barcelona not to face Nadal there. Unlike other clay courts, Madrid courts are fast,and Djoko likes this
3. Nadal wants revenge this will make the game difficult for him, Djoko is going for best season opening record, he repeated B.Borg's 31 games already, if he makes 32, he will be written in the history...
4. Djokovic is the cool guy here.
5. My heart is with Djokovic.

[Allure]

Just play the over. Federer robbed off a set, and so can Djokovic. Over.

[Wulfman14]

federer that stupid idiot is way too intimidated by nadal. i lost on all my handicap bets . i had +4.5, +5.5 on the swiss and he fukked it all up .

as for today the odds are great on nole. but you cannot go against nadal on clay . madrid has a faster surface so it favors nole but this will be a match i stay away from. maaybe live bet nole if he has good form in the first set but otherwise im staying away. these big matches have screwed me the last 3 times i have played them

[Pawan]

Nadal is goin to be the champion once again....

[KC]

Good way to spend Mothers Day...thinking Nadal straight sets

[justonetime]

I'm liking Nadal more and more. Good write up thirtytwo.

[jjgold]

Nadal is the king but I have watched about 15 of his last 20 matches and some of the higher ranked players are hanging in their with him on clay, long games, lots of breaks of serve, now he is playing the hottest player in the last 20 years or so.

[Tsonga]

This should be a close one. I can get Djoker at +4 and I think that's not a bad play. Nadal should pull through on this but it won't come easy.

[jjgold]

Tsonga you know the game
Its the right play
best of luck

[scottie2005]

I hope Djoker pulls the upset

[beefcake]

Correct play here could be the over 22 at --115..

[benrama]

I have a very large play on Djokovic not to win this tournament, (interestingly it was -320 before Djokovic played Ferrer and Bellucci and even now Nadal is still -270, so the bet still seems like a good one).

Given Djokovic's run, the bookmakers are really showing their hand here. I do expect a close match, and think the over is a solid play as well, but hard to see Nadal losing in his home country on his favourite surface.

[GoldRush7]

djoker has been playing great tennis gotta back him here with those odds i think

[reformed]

took joker +260. I wouldnt do it on a slower clay court but from what I saw federer was hitting winners at will when he wasnt missing.

[yisman]

After Djokovic went up 4-1, the stadium started playing "Hit the road, Jack!"

I didn't know that was a hit in Spain

[justonetime]

Nadal not looking too good to start.