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Does It Make Sense To Bet The "Under" In Baseball?
It seems like a bad play to me. The way bullpens are today. The fact that there is no clock. Sometimes the over cashes in by the 3rd inning. If you bet the under, you have to bite your nails for nine whole innings, only to see a blown save and extra innings. Anybody else feel like baseball unders are a bad play?
On games that go over, yes.
Jokester.Originally Posted by Cap dat 4ss
I've lost more over bets than under this year. But I suck so you may be right...
I would take the under on ttrace35's IQ at the posted number of 8.
At least you are winning when the game starts.
At what odds?
Its all 50/50 by the end of the season
I only take the under when I believe That the two teams combined runs scored, will be lower than the number given by the book for the total. Best strategy available.
Yea. Your probably right. In my dumb head, I feel like games are more likely to go over.
Its an ok mentality if you cap all the games for the day, and then only bet the ones you expect to go over and stay away from the games you capped to go under.
There is nothing wrong with that approach, you obviously just dont want the over/under thing to change the way you approach and cap all the games.
Not saying it is the best strategy but it could be ok.
Statistically this is the worst scoring start to a MLB season yet. Teams are only averaging something like 4 runs per game when its normally 5.6 or something like that. So if the over under is 9 or so i wouldn't mind taking the under.
If you worry about bullpens, start betting 1st 5 innings if you like unders in a game. Mostly takes pen out of the question - of course you gotta find a good line and they are harder to find for these I think.
Very good advice.
Psychologically important. Plus bats are very silent so far this year.
I almost always play under. I seldom play the over.
I believe the under has more advantages.
1) I'm winning right off the bat (no pun intended) although I have to wait till the end of the game.
2) If the home team is leading after 8, then the game lasts only 8.5 innings long instead of 9 or even extra innings.
3) The chance of the closer getting a save is far greater than blowing a save.
4) Defense usually wins games but that seem to apply more to the other team sports like NBA, NHL etc...
5) Some bookies (eg. sports lotteries) don't require the game to go 9 innings for the score to be official. That means if the game is cut short due to weather your bet is still good.
6) At the end of the day, a good pitcher will beat a good hitter with everything else being equal
Historically the under wins more often than the over in baseball. Thr public hates betting under as it's really not a "fun" bet. Much more fun to root for runs. So long term the under is a good bet
The over is hitting a little bit better this year than the under (229 over, 215 under)
This makes a lot of sense.
I agree with skyscrapers...if i bet a total it is mostly an under.
End of season it will be about 50/50 tho, so gotta pick favorable spots
I thought offense was down overall so far this year? have the books already adjusted to it?
I like unders on games with two good pitchers that you know can go the distance.
this guy obviously haven't been watching baseball for long. many games go 2-1, 2-0, and what if it goes into extra innings with 2-2, you're chances of hitting the under is much higher than hitting the over imo...
makes plenty of sense if you go on the right games.. just like going on the right games in the over.... there are plenty of games that hit the under just like the over....not talking crap when i say this but pay attention to the games and you will see that there are plenty of unders to go on....
I been watching baseball for a long time. But I am new to capping it. Just tryin to learn a thing or two from the few sharps here at sbr. Many games do go under. But the fact that there is no clock seems like an advantage to the over. Extra innings only help the over also.
I once read a post that said
When you bet the over you are losing the entire time until the total does go over.
When you bet the under you are winning the entire time until the total goes over.
This thread doesn't make any sense.
If it's a bad play to bet under, then you think betting over is always a good play? What does that even mean? At the end of the day it's all about probability not how easily it could've gone over.
No never bet under. No games in any sport are low scoring.
To say all games are high scoring, is an understatement.
Games to play the under:
On cold nights/days. Ball doesn't carry well on cold days and players swing more frequently on bad pitches.
When the wind is blowing into the stadium regardless of pitcher.
When the wind is blowing out of the stadium and pitchers are groundout specialists.
On the last game of a 3 or 4 game series when the coaches play 3-4 of their backups.
When the Yankees play on the road except in Boston.
When the Padres play at home.
Never on first game of the series but always on 2nd game of the series if the first game was over since teams adjust.
I am hitting about 65% when going under. I am hitting only 35% when betting on over
Losing an Under in the 3rd inning is basically the same thing as betting an Over and the score is 1-0 in the 9th inning. Yeah you technically still have a chance, but maybe once a year you will hit the Over.
weather plays an important factor i also look at line movements on bettin exchanges i find these good tools
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