**today is a great lesson in NFL parity

**thetrinity** · 09-23-12, 04:31 PM

i agree mike! even picking teams in survivor polls is hard

**Brock Landers** · 09-23-12, 04:36 PM

NFL is VERY difficult

VERY

**CanuckG** · 09-23-12, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by Brock Landers

NFL is VERY difficult

VERY

Only if you make it difficult

**face** · 09-23-12, 04:38 PM

nfl too hard. gonna just play one teaser from now on

**pulledclear** · 09-23-12, 05:24 PM

"today is a great lesson in NFL parity"

Only if you are totally clueless.

**jjgold** · 09-23-12, 05:33 PM

QB's too basically the same

All about turnovers

**nic9212** · 09-23-12, 06:40 PM

was confident in the saints today and ate it...

**wantitall4moi** · 09-23-12, 07:02 PM

No it means too many people listen to so called 'experts' rather than forming their own opinions on teams.

SF is still a great team, they just had the spott hey were going to lose in, and they did. Minn is a bad match up for them plain and simple.

New orleans isnt that good, and the whole bounty scandal is definitely weighing on them they are 0-2 and so losing a third game shouldnt be that great a surprise, but peopl ehave this idea theyre the SB contender they were a couple years ago. But they still shouldnt lose Su to KC at home.

Cardinals are good, Philly vastly over rated.

SD always starts slow beating up a couple door mats in the first 2 games shouldnt confuse people. Atl is a decent team. the ease of the win was shocking not the win itself.

denver sucks peyton is damaged goods and Houston is a SB contender when healthy, no surprise at all there

Jax and Indy both are horrible I dont know who won or even whatthe score was. So it doesnt matter. if one team won by 50 it still wouldnt matter they both suck.

Buff is a good team Cle might win only 1 game this year.

Jets and Mia they both suck so similar to the Indy Jax game.

Cinci and Wash intersting game as both teams have had a copuple 'surprises' this year, but it was a shoot out and basically the last team with the ball won. So no real surprise there either.

Det Tenn. det very over rated and obvious the guy cant coach. The last play of the game should have gotten him fired before he left the field.

Bears good, Rams not, no surprise.

Dallas is a mess TB sucks too. TB covered and had a chance to win the game with like 50 yards of offense.

So really there werent any major surprises today. I would say the most 'shocking' was how easy Atlanta beat San Diego. Oh I suppose KC beating New orleans at home as well , but New Orleans is still (now) an 0-3 football team with no head coach and a QB that just got a max out deal.

There are a lot of bad bad team this year. Some might eek out 8-8 but could just as easily go 5-11. Just depends on what happens when the bad teams star facing each other.

I give this advice every year and no one listens and thats why you all go broke.

Pick winners without looking at lines, and then if youre going to bet bet at the best line available when you want to make the play. Dont worry about the number as much as the game. If your opinion isnt good enough to win getting a half point isnt going to help you any.

**ThaTopMoron** · 09-23-12, 07:03 PM

Steelers up 10 with quarter to go

Steelers lose

i think I'm done till a lock comes around

**BIGDAY** · 09-23-12, 07:05 PM

This is why i love football! Every year is a new year for teams!! YeeeHaaawww

**Easy-Rider 66** · 09-23-12, 07:08 PM

Parity is good for the NFL imo. Much preferred over the NBA where maybe 5 teams have a realistic shot to win the title. Very little seperates these teams.

**NYSportsGuy210** · 09-23-12, 07:09 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

Only 1 favorite won by more than 10, more dogs than favorites get the ml win

So many people think "team x sucks or team y is awesome", these teams are often separated by a very narrow margin

Saints 0-3 and cardinals looking to go 3-0

This is why I never understand it when guys like Goatmilk post on this forum and he gets like 100 responses and 1200 hits even though his reasoning for picking some games make no sense at all. Same thing with Lakerboy back in 2010 till now in his always trying to pick any random underdog that has a 20% chance to win and he always gets buried.

SBR just doesn't make sense sometimes.

**agharah1** · 09-23-12, 07:11 PM

This is why 70% of the time the winning team covers the spread: the underdogs win so much and underdogs that win cover 100% of the time.

**NYSportsGuy210** · 09-23-12, 07:13 PM

I took the Cardinals +3, Houston (-1.5), Jets ML, and parlayed 49ers/Saints/Cowboys/Packers all ML. So far I am 3-1 but I back it up with reasons and good judgement even when I lose.

I also am small on Ravens (-2) tonight. They are a solid home team and Patriots have not played the Ravens at M&T in the last three years when the Ravens have been solid. Pats barely beat the Ravens in Boston.....what do you think will happen at Ravens home turf?

**JMobile** · 09-23-12, 07:13 PM

I didn't understand why the Chargers were favored against the Falcons. Aside from home field advantage, Chargers haven't played anybody good.

**JayLA** · 09-23-12, 07:16 PM

Originally posted by wantitall4moi

Pick winners without looking at lines, and then if youre going to bet bet at the best line available when you want to make the play. Dont worry about the number as much as the game. If your opinion isnt good enough to win getting a half point isnt going to help you any.

i try to do this every week. i play the points in my favor keeping in mind how dynamic the sport is.
most games are coinflips, one articulation away from a swing.
100,000 post count on sbr doesnt change that, but what i like is READING other people's opinion, even if it's against mine

**mynameismud** · 09-23-12, 07:17 PM

i have a feeling books made a shit ton of money today.

**wantitall4moi** · 09-23-12, 07:28 PM

Originally posted by agharah1

This is why 70% of the time the winning team covers the spread: the underdogs win so much and underdogs that win cover 100% of the time.

if youre going to use percentages get them right SU winners in the NFL cover the spread 80% of the time against the WORST number. Against ANY kind of line shopping they will cover around 84% of the time.

**yahoonino** · 09-23-12, 07:34 PM

Originally posted by nic9212

was confident in the saints today and ate it...

me too

**yahoonino** · 09-23-12, 07:35 PM

The saint line move from 8 to 9.5 ton of money,,and they lost outright ??? Nfl you can not win,,

**DudleyDawson** · 09-23-12, 07:37 PM

Originally posted by JMobile

I didn't understand why the Chargers were favored against the Falcons. Aside from home field advantage, Chargers haven't played anybody good.

for the squares. public loves betting the favs.

**JayLA** · 09-23-12, 07:41 PM

Originally posted by wantitall4moi

if youre going to use percentages get them right SU winners in the NFL cover the spread 80% of the time against the WORST number. Against ANY kind of line shopping they will cover around 84% of the time.

where'd you get these percentages?

**NYSportsGuy210** · 09-23-12, 07:42 PM

Originally posted by nic9212

was confident in the saints today and ate it...

Saints was a decent bet though. You knew they were in desperation mode and at home.

**DudleyDawson** · 09-23-12, 07:47 PM

Originally posted by NYSportsGuy210

Saints was a decent bet though. You knew they were in desperation mode and at home.

betting desperate teams never pans out....guys who are just starting out betting the NFL haven't got a prayer. they may win a few bucks one week but the books will get that back times 10 within a few weeks...there's really only 1-2 sometimes 3 good bets a week in the nfl..

**pulledclear** · 09-23-12, 07:49 PM

Originally posted by NYSportsGuy210

Saints was a decent bet though. You knew they were in desperation mode and at home.

EEEWWWWWWWWW!

**wantitall4moi** · 09-23-12, 08:02 PM

Originally posted by JayLA

where'd you get these percentages?

I have a database and it is as good as they come, at least in terms of fact checking past results, line moves, and proofing some of the stupid shit people say on the internet.

But for full disclosure, against the WORST number ever available (at one of 16 books in the database)

SU winners since 1996 are against the WORST number.

4173-0-0 (11.7)

3365-686-120 (9.2)

avg line: -2.6

BEST number SU winners are

4173-0-0 (11.7)

3470-657-44 (9.2)

avg line: -2.5

**neverstoppers23** · 09-23-12, 08:11 PM

i think this also shows, how valuable a great coach is.

i predicted a under .500 saints season, before the nfl started. but they are more awful then i predicted.

and i am still just not sold on arizona, their defense has played fierce the last few games. I just don't know yet, if they are the real deal. Very young, young teams usually start off great tank later down the season.

The vikings look like they got a franchise qb, that one td pass where he is rolling back, and throws a ball to the back of the endzone for a td was amazing. the arm strength to do that and the accuracy, not only that he can run. right now he is getting no love, but i think that will change very soon.

**agendaman** · 09-23-12, 08:16 PM

brock said it all nfl. is extremely difficult

**k13** · 09-23-12, 08:18 PM

Originally posted by wantitall4moi

No it means too many people listen to so called 'experts' rather than forming their own opinions on teams.

SF is still a great team, they just had the spott hey were going to lose in, and they did. Minn is a bad match up for them plain and simple.

New orleans isnt that good, and the whole bounty scandal is definitely weighing on them they are 0-2 and so losing a third game shouldnt be that great a surprise, but peopl ehave this idea theyre the SB contender they were a couple years ago. But they still shouldnt lose Su to KC at home.

Cardinals are good, Philly vastly over rated.

SD always starts slow beating up a couple door mats in the first 2 games shouldnt confuse people. Atl is a decent team. the ease of the win was shocking not the win itself.

denver sucks peyton is damaged goods and Houston is a SB contender when healthy, no surprise at all there

Jax and Indy both are horrible I dont know who won or even whatthe score was. So it doesnt matter. if one team won by 50 it still wouldnt matter they both suck.

Buff is a good team Cle might win only 1 game this year.

Jets and Mia they both suck so similar to the Indy Jax game.

Cinci and Wash intersting game as both teams have had a copuple 'surprises' this year, but it was a shoot out and basically the last team with the ball won. So no real surprise there either.

Det Tenn. det very over rated and obvious the guy cant coach. The last play of the game should have gotten him fired before he left the field.

Bears good, Rams not, no surprise.

Dallas is a mess TB sucks too. TB covered and had a chance to win the game with like 50 yards of offense.

So really there werent any major surprises today. I would say the most 'shocking' was how easy Atlanta beat San Diego. Oh I suppose KC beating New orleans at home as well , but New Orleans is still (now) an 0-3 football team with no head coach and a QB that just got a max out deal.

There are a lot of bad bad team this year. Some might eek out 8-8 but could just as easily go 5-11. Just depends on what happens when the bad teams star facing each other.

I give this advice every year and no one listens and thats why you all go broke.

Pick winners without looking at lines, and then if youre going to bet bet at the best line available when you want to make the play. Dont worry about the number as much as the game. If your opinion isnt good enough to win getting a half point isnt going to help you any.

So you already decided who's good and who's not by week 3? Who did you have as good before the season?

Arizona is not good, neither are the Bills.

Once the season is finished you'll find out who's good and that opinion will switch every week.

So Jets suck but Bills are good?

Did you forget Week 1?
If Miami beats Arizona next week, who's good?

Arizona won't even win 8 games.

**wantitall4moi** · 09-23-12, 08:22 PM

just pick frigging winners and stop worrying about the spread, it is really that simple. Problem is vig kills you. Since most guys are coin flippers they dont stand a chance, then they buy half points and all that stupidity and they turn into their own worst enemy.

Seriously anyone that ever thinks about betting the NFL should simply pick SU winners for the first 6 weeks if they arent over 50% then they better play checkers or something.

Another problem is people see a + sign next to a number on a team and they take the points. Rather than doing the smart thing and just betting the ML. There are some subsets where taking the points is slightly better, but over all youre better off taking the ML if you like the dog. But most guys arent wired that way, they all want insurance and protection.

**easyliving** · 09-23-12, 08:23 PM

Public got buried today. 1 or 2 public favs covered

**k13** · 09-23-12, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by wantitall4moi

just pick frigging winners and stop worrying about the spread, it is really that simple. Problem is vig kills you. Since most guys are coin flippers they dont stand a chance, then they buy half points and all that stupidity and they turn into their own worst enemy.

Seriously anyone that ever thinks about betting the NFL should simply pick SU winners for the first 6 weeks if they arent over 50% then they better play checkers or something.

Another problem is people see a + sign next to a number on a team and they take the points. Rather than doing the smart thing and just betting the ML. There are some subsets where taking the points is slightly better, but over all youre better off taking the ML if you like the dog. But most guys arent wired that way, they all want insurance and protection.

I agree with all that.

**recon1** · 09-23-12, 08:28 PM

Before free agency a fella could make a killing on Sundays, not now.

**wantitall4moi** · 09-23-12, 08:39 PM

Originally posted by k13

So you already decided who's good and who's not by week 3? Who did you have as good before the season?

Arizona is not good, neither are the Bills.

Once the season is finished you'll find out who's good and that opinion will switch every week.

So Jets suck but Bills are good?

Did you forget Week 1?
If Miami beats Arizona next week, who's good?

Arizona won't even win 8 games.

AZ could win 9 games in that div. considering their O/U was 6.5 thats a big number. Bills will finish second behind the Patriots whether they are 10-6 or 11-5 remains to be seen. Theyll win a lot more than people think.

There are 4 or 5 legit teams this year in the NFL thats it. 2 of them are playing right now and one of them is getting smashed. Doesnt mean balt isnt good just means Pats are pissed they lost last week.

But I would say the teams with any ACTUAL shot at the Superbowl, assuming they dont all have catastrophic injuries are, Patriots, 49ers, Texans, Packers.

then you have the second tier play off types...Bears, Chargers, Ravens, Giants, maybe the Steelers, and prob Atlanta by default since someone has to in that division. Teams that will probably win 10+ games but wont be any real threat.

Of course some of these teams prob dont make the play offs de to conference make up and it is possible a 12-4 team misses out because they dont win their conf and dont have a good enough record to win WC. Thats what happened in a top heavy league. Which I think this one is this year. I dont see a lot of parity, beyond there are just a lot of shitty teams.