Bulls -3.5 LOCKED (x3)

I am going to be rolling with the Bulls today playing in Atlanta. The Bulls are only 0.5 a game back of home court throughout the playoffs and I think a young team like this will fight very hard down the stretch for it. This is definitely not a game the Bulls will overlook as it will be nationally televised. I still don't think the Bulls are getting nearly the respect they deserve and they will show everyone just how good they are tomorrow when fully healthy (see below the stats for that). The Bulls played tonight and won by 40 and sat out their starters the entire 4th quarter. Everyone had it going offensively scoring 132 which is bad news for one of the worst offensive teams in Atlanta (ranked 25th 95.4ppg). The Bulls are now 9-1 their last ten games. The Hawks have been struggling badly losing 6 of their last 10.

Atlanta beat Chicago by 3 in their last game at home vs them just 20 days ago. Not one person on Chicago scored over 15 and Rose had one of his worst games of the year going 5-21 and the Bulls still almost pulled off the win despite one of their worst efforts ever leading late in the 4Q. Chicago then played them just recently and crushed them by 18 at home, a game more representative I what I believe should happen tomorrow night. I mean the MVP of the league shooting under 25% is not standard especially with guys like Hinrich and Teague trying to stop him and no shot blocker at PF/C from stopping him from finishing at the rim.

Another big reason I like this game is because of the quotes from the Hawks organization and just their overall morale at this point of the season. Horford was recently quoted saying "there needs to be a change." Coach Drew said “I know some guys are banged up a little physically,”. This is obviously in reference to Joe Johnson who has been playing through an injury and playing terribly. Here was the most important quote, “We can’t be a soft team. We can’t be a team that when a team smacks you in the mouth or makes a little run on you, your body language shows defeat" Now you can talk about this all you want but I realized this long ago and this is not going to change. The Hawks are simply a soft, jump shooting team. Coach Drew saying it just cements my belief about it. You are not all of a sudden going to see Horford skying over people for rebounds or dunking on anyone. Zaza isn't going to start throwing people around downlow. Johnson is terrible around the rim and always has been with the exception of floaters. Hinrich ain't going to the basket, Crawford isn't going to the basket.

If you look at the Bulls and when they are completley healthy with their starters getting there normal minutes, they have been lethal. Boozer came back December 3rd but didn't get over 30 minutes until 12-4. So they had Boozer and Noah from 12-4 to 12-15 and they went 7-0 in this stretch with wins over OKC and LAL and blowouts vs Minne, Toronto and Indiana, 5-2 ATS. Then Noah got hurt and missed from 12-15 to February 23rd. So they had a healthy Noah and Boozer from February 24 to March 11 when Boozer got hurt again. They went 8-1 in this stretch with the only loss in Atanta in the worst game they played all year and still almost won. Again they had great wins in stretch against Miami, @ ORL, @ Miami, New Orleans and Atlanta. They were 7-2 ATS in this stretch. So basically the Bulls are 15-1 SU with a fully healthy squad and 12-4 ATS.

It doesn't look like the spread will matter here either. This is pretty shocking to me but take a look at Atlanta's recent losing margins. 21, 15, 18, 14 13, 7, 10, 8, 24, 12, 2 (cha), 34, 11, 8, 41, 6, 9, 7, 7, 12, 23, 26, 12, 6, 23. Basically they have only kept one loss within less than 5 points the last 27 games and that was a 2 point loss to Charlotte at home as -7.5 point favorites. Their losses have been by an average of 16 points per game.

Some stats I think are noteworthy. You most likely don't have to worry about the revenge angle for ATL as they are just 9-17 ATS in the revenge situation. Hawks are one of the worst home teams ATS at 13-22, Bulls are one of the best road teams ATS at 20-14. Bulls are 19-8 ATS when playing a team with a winning record and and are 9-3 ATS in the 2H of the season. Hawks are just 10-19 ATS vs teams with a winning record and 9-20 SU.

More on the Hawks vs top teams, Their only wins against above 500 teams are vs Miami (injured Miami), ORL (no Nelson), ORL (1st game post trade), Utah (played horribly at beginning of year, coach fired, Deron traded), Philly (barely .500 team), Portland twice and Chicago. So basically they really only beat one team of Chicago's level and that was the Bulls. They got killed by Miami in the two other games, killed by LAL, lost to Dallas, smoked by Denver recently, smoked by SA, lost to OKC at home, and killed by Boston in the two meetings.

The Bulls just matchup really well with the Hawks. I think Chicago has the better starters, bench and coach. They just have way too much scoring and they have one of the best interior defenses in the NBA. Horford is their only real big scoring threat right now and who else would you rather have guarding him then Noah? Noah is the longest, most athletic/active center in the league. Horford likes that short jump shot and you know Noah is going to close in on him and always get a hand up in his face and make him shoot a difficult shot. Bogans/Brewer are GREAT defenders to stop Joe J. Boozer should have a nice game with Zaza on him. Rose should eat Hinrich alive. Bulls bench of Gibson, Korver, Brewer, Watson, and Asik should kill Crawford Zaza and Wilkins. I think Thibbodeau is the coach of the year by far too, way better than Coach Drew for Atlanta. I am estimating a final score around 95-87 Bulls.