Nets +9 LOCKED (x1.5)

I am rolling with the Nets tomorrow night playing in New Orleans. I think the Hornets are still getting a lot of credit from the linesmakers and the public due to their 11-1 start. Fact is though that they have struggled big time and I think reality is setting in for this team. They are just 5-11 their last 16 games. Normally I stay away from the Nets because you can never estimate effort with them. They are coming off two nice wins though against Atlanta and Memphis and I think they will come out and play confidently tomorrow night.

I looked at the Hornets blowout home wins and noticed some things. They had four double digit wins at home this year. They beat LAC by 19 but Eric Gordon did not play and they had a full 2 days of rest. They also beat Portland by 20 but had 3 days rest for that game and Roy got hurt and only put up 2 points. They beat Charlotte by 16 but Stephen Jackson did not play in that game. The only legit double digit win they had against a healthy team was Detroit. Detroits problem is that their bigs are just downright terrible (Okafor and West had big games). New Jersey has Humphries and Lopez who are nice players. Favors off the bench is pretty good as well.

A lot of people might be scared to back NJ on back to back but they have had success going 4-1 ATS on b2b this year. They won straight up @ Clev on b2b. They covered easily @ MIA on b2b. They lost by 4 and covered @ Denver which is suppose to be the hardest place to play on b2b. They even beat ATL in OT and covered the very next night only losing by 6 to Bos. They beat Port outright on b2b by 2 at home. The only game they did not cover on b2b was @ Toronto as they lost by 6 but only missed the cover by 0.5 point. There is a chance they are 4-0-1 ATS on b2b as I am not sure if that line was ever at NJ +6 in toronto.

Pinnacle is only juicing two lines early and one of them is the Nets +9 -113 and giving away Hornets -9 +102. Matchbook has Nets +9 -117. 5Dimes has already dropped the line to +8.5. Usually these line movements and juicing are backed by smart money. Joe Public is not betting at midnight the day before a game, especially not a game of this nature.