I have an opinion as well.. The public percentages are overvalued this early in the season. The books know full good and well there are many winners early in the NBA, but they know that money for most is just on hold. Most people that are winning right now are holding the books money temporarily. I have seen many public bets or large majority bets cash left and right lately. It happens and in the end the books are not fighting a battle on every game. I have a data base going back to 1990 in the NBA. True, the league and players have all changed, but the books haven't changed. Over the long haul the books have it down to an almost exact science of 50-50. That is half the time when you see rlm or large public side about 50-50 it works. I don't care what you like if you look at the league trends over the last 20 yrs about 50-50 for road dogs,home dogs, public bets, sharp bets.


I said all that to say.. The only difference is what is your edge? I think the information is useful as a tool, but it needs to be used only in conjunction with what your methods really are. I can't tell you how many times in the past I have ran away from something because the line acted wrong or too many public was on it. Ex last nite in the NFL. Everybody on this site thought the Eagles would mash the Redskins and go over. Well guess what, they were right! Next time, they might all be wrong. I hate to be on the public side but if you have your reason's and angles other than it being the "better team" than by all means forget the line movement or public percentages and bet that side.

Evidently NY is a popular side tonite based on percentages. Doesn't mean it's a bad bet. Actually it's a good bet. Will it work? Who knows Denver might drill them but the public percentages won't have much to say about it in the 4Q when most bets are won or lost. Another example.. Last nite, many here like Detroit +7 and it looked like a bad bet at first, but it cashed as well in the 4Q.

I am preaching to the choir here. I am saying all this really as I am preaching to myself because to often I get cought up with the noise of what the books are doing. Most cases on most games the books are acting as a market maker. They are providing a service and no moves they make are more important than whatever quantifyable edge you hold.