Originally posted on 10/29/2010:

They can't get together because modellers say stuff like "All publicly available team / player info is already reflected in the line and can be reflected mathematically." and "I have to correct my efficiency ratings for field-specific biases" while sports-expert guys say stuff like "me like da bears. Them motivation much gooder than browns." / "I remember that Al Bundy once caught ran for four touchdowns in a single game so his team will destroy the other team". / "This is the lock of the century, I am betting four hundred dimes, the dog, the cat, my house, my neighbours house, and all the change I found in the bottom of my couch on it"

I do listen to the few genuine insiders I know though (a couple bookies, a horse trainer, and a guy who works for a soccer team) because that is often not public information yet. I also anyone who actually knows more structurally about a sport than I do (for example a massive Volleyball fan that can explain to me that injury to a team's libero should still affect their offensive production estimate). Everyone else is a mouth breathing member of the unwashed masses who only exists to ensure sportsbooks don't go broke.

I'm exaggerating slightly but have had a bad week with people giving me "helpful" tips.