Week 5 Results
Packers -3 ( 2.5 units) Colts ML ( 5 units)
Colts -1, Bears +7.5 Teaser ( 2.5 units) Titans +7, 2.5 units Arizona +7.5, 1 unit ***( Fools Gold Special)*** Eagles +3.5, 1 unit Jets -4.5, 1 unit 4-1 ATS
1-0 ML Favorites
1-0 Teasers 6-1 Total to cap off another profitable week!
Now let's move on to Week 6
Some of you might remember me from CO***S five or so years ago as I had a pretty big following over there in Canada eh. I've decided to go back to my old format of posting THOUGHTS earlier in the week and PLAYS later in the week. This style of sharing and debating information with other strong handicappers had 1,000 to 10,000 hits and made everybody money.... I encourage thoughtful, relevant information, but not the taunting/Harassing/bickering Child's play that ended up overrunning that site and ends up coming along with success. I hope this site will do a better job policing the kids.
West Coast Teams Traveling East for 1PM starts
NONE
but Seattle @ Chicago and San Diego @ St. Louis might have a little bit of that at play
Home Dogs
Tampa Bay +4
St. Louis +8.5
Denver +3
Washington +3
Jacksonville +3
Dogs that won outright that are favored the following week
New England Patriots ( 1 point dogs 2 weeks ago vs Miami, but had bye in between)
New York Giants
Philly Eagles
Tennessee Titans
Early Money Percentages
So far I see most cappers on Indy -3, and Titans -3 as road favorites
Jeff Saragin Ratings ( and how far the line is off vs his value system)
#1 Tampa 7.69
#2 Oakland 5.96
#3 Chicago 3.8
#4 is less than 3 points but it is Atlanta 2.91
#5 is less than 3 points and it is St. Louis
Pretty disappointing because 3 of the teams are crappy IMO, with Chicago and Atlanta being good.
But what does this mean? It means Instead of the spread being...
Saints @ Tampa Bay +4
The correct spread using his metrics should be...
Saints @ Tampa Bay -3.69
or
Oakland @ San Fran -.54
Seattle @ Chicago -10.3
Atlanta @ Eagles -.09
San Diego @ St. Louis +5.85
So why are teams overvalued undervalued?
Saints = They are overvalued because they are the world champs
Bucs = Don't think they are good, they are worse than their record, but then again everybody thinks that
Oakland = People still think they suck, people discount special teams " wins" as luck or something
San Fran = People still think they are "Due" for a win, after lots of close losses... I don't..
Seattle = This team has been shitty road team for pretty much the last 10 years, but have been good at home
Bears = Defense much better, Cutler another year in the system, but how is his health?
Atlanta = People still not ready to call them elite with close pull out their ass wins
Philly = Vick is super overvalued now, but the Eagles were value last week because Kolb was undervalued
SD = Have been good for years
Rams = Replaced the 49ers as Jeff Saragins Worst team in the NFL
With all that being said, I'm always a better capper looking at the matchups, looking at who I think will win, I'm NOT a system player but that doesn't mean I don't want to know what the sytems SAY
My first instincts...
Indy -3
Pittsburgh -13.5
Indy - Washington could beat Dallas/Green Bay but then lose to the Rams? I don't like that. The Colts could also look so good at home vs the Giants, but then they go on the road to Jacksonville and can't stop the run... Helloooooo everybody in the stadium knows the Jags game plaan, They are a running team! Don't worry about the long ball, worry about the run and the dink and dunk from a weak QB. The run defense also looked awful in week 1 vs Houston who has probably a slightly above average run game. So should Indy win? You Betcha, but I hate how they could lose to a team like the Jags.
Pitt, I'd guess that everybody wants to bet on the Steelers getting Big Ben Back, and I actually wanted to FADE the Steelers as I thought the rapist might have rust and the Steelers could get overvalued, but Cleveland will be starting Colt Mccoy and he isn't even near ready to start in the NFL vs the best defense.... Most people automatically associate offensive teams with covering big spreads, but most NFL blowouts are defense induced. I mean, if the final score was 28-14, wouldn't you say if anything that's closer than what you'd think? How do you think the Browns compare to the Bucs who the Steelers blew out on the road with Charlie Batch.
I'll tell you the game I am most excited about... Dallas @ Minnesota, whoever loses might be done. They probably have the 2 most talented teams in the NFC, but one of them probably won't even make the playoffs... why? Coaching. You have two super talented teams, but who is the leader? Brad Childress? Wade Phillips? Come on.
So I don't have any plays yet, I'm trying to think about stuff. I do lean Indy & Pittsburgh so far. I would like to fade the 49ers again but I saw Jason Campbell playing last week and he's just downright awful. The Chiefs defense/special teams and coaching impressed me last week as I hadn't really seen them play.
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
C-Gold Week 6 Breakdown, 6-1 in Week 5
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