[Chance Harper]

NCAAF Odds: Alabama Hosts Penn State

It's like a college football bowl game in September. Top-ranked Alabama is a 12-point spread favorite at home in Tuscaloosa for Saturday night's battle with the Penn State Nittany Lions.

No. 1 Alabama gets its first real test of the season when it hosts No. 18 Penn State at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa on Saturday night (7 p.m. ET, ESPN).

The Crimson Tide is the best team in the country until another school beats 'Bama, and the Nittany Lions will certainly give it their best shot. Looking at all the variables, however, I doubt Penn State (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) can keep up with Alabama (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS), especially with the game going down in Tuscaloosa.

The Tide not only has 15 straight SU wins dating back to their loss to Utah in the Sugar Bowl two seasons ago, but has won 15 consecutive games at Bryant-Denny Stadium. During the stretch, ‘Bama has allowed an opponent to score more than 15 points only once, when it downed Ole Miss 24-20 in 2008.

In 10 of those victories, the Crimson Tide gave up a touchdown or less, and in the last seven home games, opponents have scored a total of three TDs.

Don’t get me wrong. Penn State is a solid team, and it’ll be great to see Joe Paterno back on the sidelines where he used to match plays with Bear Bryant, but there’s no way it’s winning this game on Saturday.

Covering the spread is a different story, but even with Alabama as 12-point favorites on the college football betting odds board, I don’t like the Lions’ chances against the Tide.

Robert Bolden showed a lot of poise in Penn State’s 44-14 win over Division II Youngstown State (+38.5) last Saturday at Happy Valley, but we’ll see what he brings to the table when he’s up against the best team in the nation with 100,000 fans breathing down his neck.

Yes, Bolden went 20-of-29 for 239 yards with two touchdowns and an interception last week, but he’s the first true freshman to start for the Lions in a century. Bolden has considerable potential, but he figures to have his share of hiccups on Saturday.

Otherwise, I wasn’t overly impressed with Penn State’s performance last week. The Lions allowed Penguins’ freshman QB Kurt Hess to complete 84% of his passes, and only outgained Youngstown State 371-264.

Expect Penn State to lean on star tailback Evan Royster on Saturday, but Nick Saban is ready for that. The Tide gave up only five rushing scores last season, the least allowed in the country. Alabama should be able to force the game into Bolden’s hands.

Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram is doubtful for the Tide as he continues to recover from arthroscopic surgery on his left knee. The running back did some light running on Wednesday and Thursday, but he’s likely to held out on Saturday.

As great as is Ingram, Alabama’s ground game is in good shape without him. Backup Trent Richardson ran for 66 yards with two TDs in the Tide’s 48-3 win last week against San Diego State, and also had 46 yards receiving.

After Richardson, Alabama has Eddie Lacy as a change of pace. Lacy racked up 111 yards on 13 carries with two touchdowns of his own last Saturday, as Richardson sat out the second half.

On the defensive side of the ball, BCS title game Defensive MVP and stud defensive end Marcell Dareus will miss the second game of his suspension on Saturday for receiving improper benefits.

If you’re siding with the Lions, it’s because of Tide QB Greg McElroy’s struggles against ranked schools last season. McElroy completed 68% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and no picks against unranked opponents in 2009, but his numbers dropped to 52%/four TDs/four INTs against six top 25 teams last season.

If Penn State can find an answer for Richardson and Lacy, and Bolden keeps the offense together, it could be up to McElroy to deliver a payday for Alabama backers.

The total for Saturday’s tilt is set at 44 or 44½ depending on the outlet. The Tide is 6-1-1 O/U in the last eight games played in September.