[lyon804]

I just think he is being undervalued in this start. -130 is way more value for Nats with him on the mound imo

In this game of handicapping we have to make assumptions based on many criteria and have a long term focus and outlook.


Let's look at this on a very reasonable level.

Wash -130 give you implied odds of 56.52%
Florida Marlins +110 give you implied odds of 47.42%



So in fact you are telling me that playing Washington on the road in this scenario is going to win long term more than 57% of the time?? Because that's exactly what has to happen for this to be a +EV scenario. Are you playing for what just happens today or do you have a long term focus? Because I want mince words when I tail you that the Washington is a -EV proposistion all day long. Can they win today? Well sure. I have not the slightest idea who wins today, but long term... The Marlins is the only play here.