Originally posted on 09/08/2022:

DAPPER DAN PICKS
2022 - NCAAF Week 2
Week 1 results: 5-3 (+1.41 units)
Season YTD: 5-5 (-0.77 units)

Been shadowboxing all week - let’s go bookies. Card isn’t great again so won’t be a bunch of plays - but we continue to dig….this is what we got so far. (Also will be adding last week’s results at the end of every new week’s post to aid in tracking)

2022 - NCAAF Week 2:
UCF -5.5 (-107)
Pittsburgh +7.5 (-125)
Virginia +4.5 (-107)


UCF -5.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
I was a UCF Knight but I was never a big fan of the Knights as I was born and raised a Miami Hurricane and UCF was a non power 5 school and 0-11 in my first year of college (take me back to 2004). This is the most excited I’ve ever been about a UCF team as this coaching/QB combination may be one of my favorites in college football. Chip Lindsey re-unites as offensive coordinator with Gus Malzahn - he was an offensive analyst for Auburn back in 2013 when Nick Marshall rushed for 1000 yards, passed for 2000 yards, and averaged 40 points per game. He was OC at Auburn from 2017-18 but had Jarret Sitdham (not a runner AT ALL) as his QB during his role at play-calling duties. This year, they have the fastest QB in college football, PLUMLEE! You may remember him from the 2019 Ole Miss team who took over when Matt Corral got injured in his rookie season. I always thought Plumlee was more of a threat then Corral but Corral took back over the starting position in 2020 (and COVID happened) and we had all but almost forgotten about ole Plumlee! He transfers to UCF to take over the starting position. He will be much more experienced and well-versed in QB duties as he was originally recruited to be a DB, because of his speed and athleticism. He will probably run for 200 yards against this Louisville defense that really struggled with Syracuse last week. Louisville’s defense graded out in PFF horribly in every stat, just like last season's team - ranked 96th overall, 108th in coverage, 75th in run defense and 101st in tackling. This UCF defense also has reasons to get excited about. Their secondary ranked 21st overall in coverage last year and returned all the key players from that unit. In week 1, UCF’s defense ranked 6th overall, 14th in pass rush, 43rd in coverage, 6th in rush defense and 16th in tackling. I think UCF runs away with this one, I love it but only doing one unit as the “UCF” name may be affecting my judgment.

Pittsburgh +7.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
Was shocked by this number and had to lock this in early in the week as I loved anything with a TD. Is ESPN hyping up this Tenn team again? I don’t care that they have a ton of “experience” ranking 13th overall in PS - th at’s a bad thing when you put up the type of numbers they did last season (especially on defense). According to FEI, Tennessee’s defense ranked in the bottom 20% of most categories - being outranked by an average of 40 ranks across all categories. Despite Tennessee’s great offensive numbers last year, Pittsburgh’s defense on average outranks their FEI counterpart on offense for Tennessee. I wrote about how stacked this Pitt team is in the trenches in last week's write-up, this will be a big problem for Tennessee who struggled on both sides of the ball on the line of scrimmage. Hooker was running for his life last year all season and ranked 123rd in sack rate - which will be extremely problematic against a Pit defense that returns mostly intact and ranked 3rd in sack % and 20th in defensive pressure rate. Pitt had 5 sacks and 9 TFLs last year when these two teams squared off for the first time in history. Last year - it really threw off Hendon Hooker’s passing game as he received his lowest PFF of the year at 39.4. Pitt ended up winning that game by 7 and I think this will be another close one - although not confident enough in Pitt to take the ML - I’ll sure take 7 points. If it’s a trap then so be it but definitely one that stuck out to me like a sore thumb when glancing over the card - and numbers concur.

Virginia +4.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
I’ll gladly take 4.5 points with one of the best QBs returning in Brennan Armstrong - ranked 4th overall in PFF, 6th in Big time throw rate, 13th in uncatchable pass rate and 7th in average depth of target. And his TOP 3 receivers all return with a whole new offensive scheme, Tony Elliot leading his first team as a head coach - after being raised under the wing of Dabo Swinney - having been at Clemson since 2011 and co-oc since 2015. They were the most explosive offense in the league last year according to PFF. Their biggest question marks are on the offensive line as its entirely new and struggled in week 1 - but Illinois isn’t the type to bring pressure or havoc, ranking 88th last year in havoc rate, 73rd in pressure, and currently grade out to 80th in pass rush against two crap teams, Wyoming and Indiana. Illinois' offense isn’t explosive and ranked 94th last year (with a better QB) so I don’t see them pulling away from UVA in this one and UVA could win outright - sprinkle some on the ML.


Week 1:
Pittsburgh -7 (-125) P
Penn State/Purder over 53 (-109) W
Indiana/Illinois Under 45 (-109) W
Utah ML (-141) L
Rutgers/BC Under 48.5 (-120) W
Arkansas -6 (-120) W
UNC +3 (-135) W
NC State -12 (-109 ) L
Ohio State -16 (-109) L