Originally posted on 04/14/2019:

Anyone playing this game?

If so, what exchange are you using? I've read a few articles that US customers are using VPN's for sites like bitmex.

I fully believe in BTC long term. My price projection is $200k by mid 2022. That said, I'm interested in seeing if there are any traders here who have tips, tricks, and are actually profitable...

I know I can leverage up to 5x on Kraken. Where else? I don't love the interface on Kraken.


For those who are are advantage gamblers and like math.... How do you calculate EV and fair value on BTC? For example. If I believe there is a 10% chance that BTC will 10x, I'd break even. Obviously deciding the 10% chance that the price moves a certain amount is the challenge. I look at it light a blackjack sidebet than can be beaten counting cards. So if we break even on the 10% chance to 10X, but we believe there is a 1% chance we 100X also, then we would win both the 10x bet to break even, and win the 100x bet. So our EV would be increased to a point where we would take the bet of "investing" in bitcoin.

Thoughts and fallacies in my logic?