Originally posted on 11/19/2018:

First, there is more than one way to do most anything and that includes how one can approach trying to be a profitable gambler.

I will give my answers to some of the points made in a post above but to explain the rationale would take far more time than I am willing to spend.

Picking winners: My focus has nothing to do with picking the winner of an event.

Beating the line: My focus has nothing to do with beating the line, sometimes I do, sometimes I don’t. Can I make selections that will beat the line? If I set my focus to beat the line, I am pretty sure that I could do that. The problem is while beating the closing line I would probably be unprofitable. I know this because I am usually on the other side of the ones that beat the line but I am profitable which means that if you were on the side that beat the line on those events you would be unprofitable. Again, no one pays you for CLV and positive CLV does not mean you have an edge!

Set your own lines: I do not set my own lines!!! Again, my focus is not to try to pick the “winner”. I know, so what do I do? This is actually a much larger discussion than I care to write about. I know in a previous post I wrote that I would share how I started but I have changed my mind. Ever try to discuss something that you have over 40 years of successful experience with someone that barely has their feet wet? Doesn’t usually go over very well and then they tell you that your experience doesn’t matter that much anyway!!!

Variance: You do realize that if you have an edge, variance means that you will tend to have more positive runs than negative runs. If however, you keep having negative runs, that is no longer variance. If everything that you believe says that you should be profitable but you are not, IMO only someone that has a very closed mind would not at least take notice and question their beliefs at least just a little.

Once again, sports betting is not a fixed odds casino game.

Joe.