Originally posted on 09/19/2018:

I checked the stats for the first two weeks of last year and for the full season and plugged them into my model to see what the expected points were.


As you can see, the number of plays are up almost 3% vs the first two weeks of last year, although similar to the full season numbers for 2017. The efficiency is up considerably though, 5.75 YPP is quite high, would be one of the highest ever, if not THE highest ever.


With that said, if you look at the expected points column, the 23.5pts per game scored by teams so far this year has outperformed the stats so that should regress back. Last year the model said teams should've scored 21.6pts per game and they scored 21.7 (the .1 is special teams td's)
Rush Att Rush Yds AVG Pass Att Pass YDS YPA INT
F22018 25.3 104.6 4.1 36.3 249.7 6.9 0.9
F22017 25.3 99.2 3.9 34.1 221.7 6.5 0.8
2017 26.7 109.0 4.1 34.4 225.9 6.6 0.8
F2vsF2 100.0% 105.4% 105.1% 106.5% 112.6% 106.2% 112.5%
2018v2017 94.8% 96.0% 100.0% 105.5% 110.5% 104.5% 112.5%

Fumbles Missed FG Sacks Punts Plays YPP EXP PTS Per Team
0.6 0.4 2.4 4.8 64 5.75 22.7
0.5 0.2 2.6 4.7 62 5.40 20.8
0.5 0.3 2.4 4.7 64 5.48 21.6
120.0% 200.0% 92.3% 102.1% 103.2% 106.5% 109.2%
120.0% 133.3% 100.0% 102.1% 100.8% 104.9% 104.9%



Quote Originally Posted by Matt Landes View Post
That's pretty jarring - thanks for sharing. I haven't put in the time to look into what else could be causing this, but would think it's a confluence of factors. This is enough to make me think twice before placing my next Under wager, although the market will probably be pretty quick to catch up if it hasn't fully reacted already, so I'm hesitant to lean any more heavily toward Overs than I would under regular circumstances. If anything, it might temporarily put some potential totals tickets "in the drawer...."