Originally posted on 09/06/2018:

Hey, guys wanted to share some thoughts I had going into this NFL season, and also share a nugget of wisdom that Dave had written in one of the PB that had stuck with me.

It took a lot of digging through many columns to find this but I think it was really worth it as I am using this a guideline to navigate the rocky waters of NFL betting.

Also because of our love for similar music, I am posting a music of a clip that I had sent to him, about a year ago, that I thought he would have enjoyed (he didJ). Now for those who are not familiar with this tune or the Grateful Dead in general might misinterpret this as disrespectful, but in reality it is just the opposite. They would play this tune as a tribute to a fallen bandmate or friend. Here is a a great version from 1989 of He’s Gone that I want to dedicate to our friend in high places





Now for that Nugget from Dave:
Someday I may finally put my own model out there, which every aspiring sports bettor should have on their desk. It would be like a snow globe, except filled with marbles. There would be 27 white marbles (win), 22 black marbles (lose), and one blue Marble (push). That represents the relative range of outcomes that we hope to have in play when betting a game. 20 years ago there would have been 29 white, 10 years ago 28, but the current markets and technologies continue to level the field. There are still edges, and significant ones over time, but that "Globe of Outcomes", when shaken, offers an excellent visual of the realistic odds behind what we do each day, and also the perspective needed to not overly value whatever particular Marble any game lands on.


Following the professor over the year’s one of the biggest lessons I have learned was that the smallest, sometimes overlooked details, about a given handicap, produced the edge needed to overcome the very tight lines (today) that turned that potential black marble in a white one.


We have something very interesting brewing in the NFC this year. The four division winners (Eagles, Vikes, Saints and Rams) are all favored to win their divisions again, and most of the stuff you read or hear parrot this thinking.


Let take a deeper look at these teams, and how their schedule breaks down this year. They will be playing each other, as well as their normal division opponent rotation (this give a nice potential edge to the perceived second place teams in the division.


These are the swing games meaning the 2 games that are different than the other teams in the division based on where they finished last season.

LA Rams Get the Vikes and Eagles at home play the Saints in New Orleans. The NFC west also plays the NFC North and AFC west (eagles and Saints are swing games)

The Eagles Get the Vikes at home, and play the Saints and Rams on the road. NFC east plays NFC south and AFC south (Vikes and Rams are swing games)

Vikes get Saints at home and play the Eagles and Rams on the road. NFC North plays the the NFC west and AFC East (Eagles and Saints are swing games)


The Saints get the Rams and Eagles at home and the VIkes on the road. NFC South plays NFC East and AFC North (Vikes and Rams are swing games)


When you look at the teams perceived to finish second swing game is where it gets interesting.


West Niners swing games (NYG and Tampa Bay)


East Dallas swing games (Seattle and Detroit)


North Packers swing games (Wash and Atlanta)


South Falcon swing games (Seattle and Dallas)



I can envision a scenario where these top dogs beat each other up, and because of this do not match preseason expectations.

Because of this, I think there is future values in the Packers and Falcons, as well as a long shot pick with the Skins to win the division.


Now onto some teams I am high on, and teams that I am down on heading into the season.


I think we are in the middle of a transition in the NFL right now with the influx if young coaching and QB talent coupled with ageing superstars. We are going to be witness a paradigm shift will it be this year. Possibly that said who can we gain some edges with here are my thoughts.

Teams I like better than the public include Miami, Denver, Washington and Baltimore.

I am a big believer in chemistry and morale can overcome perceived talent that is overlooked in the markets I believe this is what is going on with these four teams. I have played futures as well as looking to back these teams early based on market perception.

Teams I am down on that will look crazy in some eyes: Patriots, Steelers, NYG, Seattle and Carolina


I do not like what we have been hearing out of the Patriots and Steelers camps at all, there is trouble brewing behind the scene it appears and this may have a negative effect in the locker rooms. Father time may also have something to say here too so looking for potential value should these occur.


The wise guys seem to love the Giants big time, but in my eyes, they are severely flawed. I do not like the idea of bucking wise guys too much but their OL sucks and the back 7 on Defense are just terrible. I think they are very overrated.


The Hawks have suffered through bad draft, and personnel moves for the past few years and only Russel Wilson’s play have overcome those. I believe that luck is running out he will be under duress does not have the playmakers he once did nor the Defense to keep them in games.


Caroling has OL problems, and they brought in Norv Turner to help Cam, but his track record has been really poor the last few stops. Whenever I hear they are changing the mechanics of a QB, or trying to develop him into a pocket passer I want nothing to do with them this has disaster written all over it IMHO. In addition, they were 8-1 in one score games last year does not bode well as those tend to regress.

Anyway, those are some things I wanted to share. Let hope we all are collecting white marbles at the proper ratio this season, and keep the PB spirit alive. I really enjoy this place, and value each of your contribution’s here.......Best of luck to you all Football is back and all is right with the world