Originally posted on 07/11/2018:

I can't read the whole thread but I'll offer this from real experience actually executing the same model for 6 seasons now. I've bet nearly full kelly for an entire season. The swings were enormous, and I probably overbet at times. I was also a little bit lucky (large bets won more than the small ones) and it worked out. I also bet half kelly and the way it worked out I lost my big bets (days with very few plays) and won the smaller ones... went 54.5% and lost money. It comes down to how well you quantify your edge (filter out crazy plays), and how you fare psychologically with large swings.

I have gone back to a slightly more conservative approach because it appeals to me. It is hard to know exactly what your edge is, so I use about 0.33 to 0.5 kelly to account for the slop.

Best of luck with your health Bsims. Take care.