Originally <a href='https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=27830281'>posted</a> on 06/04/2018:

Quote Originally Posted by JoeCool20 View Post
Of course a 50 - 50 shot is always going to be 50 - 50 no matter what happened in the past. But if you never bet anything, and you only waited until some jerk-off handicapper had won 8 in a row, & then you started betting against him, he'd probably start losing a few of the next 8 he picked. But you'd never have a "better" than 50 - 50 shot no matter how many he had won or lost in a row. Because in ONE game, his pick would always have a 50 - 50 shot.
The odds don't change for one pick. Remember, games, or cards, or dice, don't know what they rolled the last 100 times! The odds are the same as they were no matter what happened the last 100 times.
This, while on the face of it, seems like a good post, those who think that sports markets can be likened to cards and dice in the same way are outright wrong.

It can be shown mathematically that current results, how the market is shaped and what happens on the field, court, or ice, can and are dependent on previous results.

Some factors are well know point spread adjustments and are actually, at this point, public knowledge.

While I can show that recent previous games not only affect what we could consider true odds, they most certainly affect the publicly manipulated markets.

The idea of always having a 50-50 shot is dependant on the theory that the market is always efficient.

It's not.

These are not coins or cards, these are players, coaches, managers, teams, referees and and a league organization who, when combined, create in the game of play the statistics that many market movers use to make decisions.

There is a big difference.

While I can show pointspread adjustments based on previous games, even the last game played, you will not be able to show that each game is independant of another.

That's just an assumption that fails to take into account the relevant factors that lead to a final score of a given game.

It will be a shocker to the square math guys because many of their assumptions, even if they have led to profit, are still wrong.