Originally posted on 03/24/2018:

Quote Originally Posted by puffkit View Post
dave ....quick question as to why that line was off so much....was it just that they didnt know what to make of umbc? were they basing the 2H number off of the umbc 2H barrage against uva? seems there's a good edge there for us in a situations like that.......would like to know and tuck that away for the next time a 16 beats a 1
The overwhelming majority of time it comes down to "The Chart", based on where the Full Game opened and closed. If we use Pinny as the guide, Kansas State was -10.5 to -10, and 135.5 to 136.5. So 10 and 136.5 is how they see the markets as ultimately grading the game prior to tipoff. That also calls for the First Half/Second Half Totals to be projected in the range of 63/73, based on the historical norms.

So as halftime approached "The Chart" called for something in the 73 range, which got adjusted down a tick. Why don't they adjust more? Because the halftime score had the game sitting on 45, which meant that the new Full Game Total being dealt was 117. They can't go too much lower than that, because there are bettors who will play an extreme game back towards the closing line, especially at tournament time. Hence they didn't have to make the Second Half Total any lower than 72, because that price was already offering folks the opportunity to bet Over 117 on a game that closed 136.5.

Game flows are a consideration, and a part of the line-making process, but for settings like that the historical norms across the betting markets carry more weight. That is why a game that looked to be in total control of the defenses to the naked eye, got priced far differently than that flow was calling for.