Originally posted on 03/10/2018:

Quote Originally Posted by Keepongaming View Post
Dave, I have a general question. When you have numbers in mind, say lay 3/take 7 or something like that, do you look for those numbers in game and then, circumstances considered, pounce?
That is the way the process works across almost all of the sports - combine all of the relevant factors into a rating for each game, and then establish the parameters on each end that would qualify for a play. A good example would be Virginia tonight, the Cavaliers grading out at -6.5, which creates a "Lay -4/Take +10" scenario.

The decision to pounce or wait is also based on how I sense the market will perceive a game, and a good example of that was the New Mexico/San Diego State Total. There was plenty of 153 to be found not too long ago, and a good shopper could have filled out some 154 tickets. Now 150 is already showing, because that was a game that others were going to want. But there are also times when the markets will view a game differently and I don't have to hurry, Virginia/NC being one of them - I have not had to play yet, and am holding out hopes that there might be a -3.5 available between now and tipoff.