Originally posted on 02/15/2018:


Despite 35-25, is This Thibs/T’Wolves Thing Really Working…Why hasn’t Arizona been better? It’s almost all about defense…


Point Blank – February 15, 2018

It will be time to say goodbye to the NBA for a bit after the final two games before the All Star break take place this evening, but there is far more late-season drama building than I would have projected, much of which can lead to opportunity for the handicapper. The Minnesota Timberwolves are one of those intriguing notions, so I’ll bring them front-and-center today, and with Arizona State/Arizona on ESPN there is also an opportunity for many folks to get a better feel for something that seems to have puzzled some market segments (9-16-1 ATS, 4-8-1 in Pac 12 play) – why hasn’t Sean Miller’s team been better?

I intentionally held Minnesota back a day, instead of putting that Timberwolves defense into an “About Last Night” take yesterday, despite a truly shocking count put up by Houston at crunch time on Tuesday. Now the TNT cameras will be at the Target Center for an eye test setting this evening, so it is an appropriate time to dive in.


Item: Is this Thibodeau/Timberwolves Things Really Working

It is easy to fall into the mindset that Minnesota is on track, and you may hear much of that from the broadcast announcers this evening – the T’Wolves are 35-25 and just a half game out of the #3 seed in the Western Conference. There is seeming logic in building the case that not only adding Jimmy Butler/Taj Gibson/Jeff Teague/Jamal Crawford has worked, but someone a bit lazy in their analysis could also fall for the notion that Tom Thibodeau is finally getting his defensive principles instilled. Except the latter would be wrong.



The Minnesota elevation in the standings has been far more about talent than tactics, especially at the offensive end. Despite adding those new pieces, and having Karl Anthony-Towns and Andrew Wiggins get another season of learning under Thibs, there hasn’t been a defensive progression at all:

PP100 Off Def
2017 108.1 (10) 109.1 (26)
2018 111.2 (3) 108.4 (26)

That only tells part of the story. To get to what may be the most important truth come playoff time requires a bit of redundancy here, since the T’Wolves 4th Quarter defense has already been a topic, but what happened vs. Houston on Tuesday was so historic that it requires another visit. The Rockets broke open a close game with a 42-28 surge across the final stanza, and for as good as that looked on the scoreboard, to put it into proper perspective let’s go to that PP100 measure:

HOU 4th Q 194.1

That is correct: one-hundred-and-ninety-four-point-f'ing-one. I had to double check the first time I saw the count. Houston managed those 42 points on only 21 field goal attempts and six free throw tries, without a turnover (there were eight assists). Try that with no opposing defenders on the court at all and it wouldn't be easy.

For the Minnesota defense to be the NBA’s worst in the fourth quarter would be indictment enough, but consider the gap between the T’Wolves and the rest of the league and it is a bit frightening:

POR 110.1 (26)
CHI 110.3 (27)
ATL 110.6 (28)
BRK 110.8 (29)
MIN 115.3 (30)

And for a refresher, Thibodeau is considered a defensive guru. How does his current team compare to the teams that have fallen at the bottom of the 4th Quarter defensive counts across recent seasons?

2013 SAC 110.5
2014 UTA 112.7
2015 MIN 108.6
2016 PHO 113.8
2017 BRK 114.1
2018 MIN 115.3

Yes, there has been major improvement in the W/L standings this season. But this has not been a case of a coach doing what he does best, and instead raises the general question as to whether Thibs is a good fit for this roster.

Has there been a progression for Anthony-Towns or Wiggins? Individual defensive ratings are still difficult to sort through, but of the NBA centers that play at least 30 minutes per game no one is below Anthony-Towns on Real +/- Defense, and of the small forwards only Evan Fournier and Bojan Bogdanovic rate below Wiggins.

Minnesota is fun to watch, and can explosively win games on talent. But for the defense to be this bad 60 games into the season tells us that the ceiling with this particular coaching staff may be lower than the raw talent of the players might seem to call for.

As for this evening I had an Over temptation at the 222.5 that opened, but the markets quickly cleaned out those shelves, as high as 226.5 showing already. The Lakers have not played a hint of defense on this road trip, allowing both Dallas (130) and New Orleans (139) to have their season-high’s, and I can’t find anything in the realm of basketball logic that tells me that the LAL effort tonight will change for any reason. But the best of that value is gone.


Item: Why hasn’t Arizona been better?

Sean Miller’s Wildcats were #1 in the Blue Ribbon Yearbook to begin the season, and it was easy to understand why. If you have a pair of 7-footers inside, including the possible #1 for the upcoming NBA draft board in DeAndre Ayton; an NBA talent on the wings in Allonzo Trier; and a senior PG in Parker Jackson-Cartwright; the pieces are there for one hell of a run.

It hasn’t unfolded that way, the Wildcats being among the biggest money burners out there, and they have already lost outright five times as favorites of -7 or more. The issue is one that would not have been easy to identify at the start of the season but has become glaring – they just aren’t good defensively. And I don’t mean only being good instead of very good or great, I mean not even good at all.



As it turns out there are a series of problems on the defensive end. While Jackson-Cartwright has experience, at 5-11/170 he is a bit undersized. And instead of those twin towers dominating around the basket it has meant a group that is a step slow to get out on the perimeter. Add in a lack of depth, which also curtails the intensity levels, and there are some major headaches. Let’s establish a baseline by looking at what Miller teams have usually produced in overall defense, and then this group:

2012 #37
2013 #32
2014 #1
2015 #32
2016 #29
2017 #29
2018 #107

In terms of the particulars, how about being #265 in TO% forced, #312 in Steal% (those two categories being related), and #273 in 3-point percentage allowed? That makes tonight’s matchup vs. Arizona State a study in contrasts, the Wildcats holding a major size advantage and the prospects of dominating the paint (Ayton had 23 points and 19 rebounds in the earlier 84-78 win at Tucson), but those veteran Sun Devil guards Tra Holder, Shannon Evans and Kodi Justice getting a lot of room to operate on the perimeter (62 points in that earlier defeat).

The markets are still with Arizona in this one, despite the disappointing returns, ASU -1 now having swung to +1.5. I get small chimes to the host Sun Devils at +2, and something good at +3, so if that market direction continues I could be in play there before the day is out. As for the tourney cycle ahead, color the Wildcats as being vulnerable against teams that get a lot of production from their back-courts, and in particular 3-point shooting, although those same teams will have to find a way to hold off the Arizona big men on the other end.


Item: About Last Night, and LAC/Celtics

I did not take the right path here yesterday in attempting to play into the current Boston struggles – the Team Total Under got waylaid by quite a pace (103.9). But in doing the post-mortem I couldn’t help but put this into the files:

Kyrie Irving: "Some of our early success didn’t match some of our habits and some of our patterns, but we played extremely hard. If we’re not even doing that then we don’t have a chance."

There is some valuable insight to be found in that, and it helps explain why the Celtics have fallen behind by at least 14 points in four of their last five games, only that OT gut-out vs. the Wizards preventing an 0-5 slide into the All Star break. But there is also a question as to how the other players are going to absorb it. Even though there won’t be box scores from the Association to track over the days ahead, there will still be plenty of digging going on.


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