Originally posted on 12/12/2017:


What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL Week #14…Can Foles become St. Nick for the Eagles; we may Remember the Titans for the wrong reasons; and time for the special tranquility of being in the Lotus position again…



Point Blank – December 12, 2017

The drama is now unfolding in some unique ways as the NFL home stretch begins. Could there possibly be an NFC Championship game with Case Keenum and Nick Foles as the QBs? Might the Patriots fall all the way to the #3 seed in the AFC, which has now become a very real prospect? And if the Packers can merely sneak in to the playoffs as the last qualify, does the presence of Aaron Rodgers give them the swagger to win January games against opponents that lack post-season experience?

There is a lot to sort through, and I will save the Green Bay details until tomorrow as more details emerge about whether Rodgers starting this week is possibility or probability. Because there is so much going on, including several statistical charts to absorb, I will activate the jukebox again for some background to help you through, staying with the December theme of those terrific Christmas Jam’s from Warren Haynes in Wilmington, NC each year. Let’s go to the sublimity that is “Soulshine”, this one from the 2015 show -





Now it is time to start with the most compelling question of all…


Item: Can Foles be St. Nick for the Eagles?

There is a lot to see here. First let’s start with the fact that for as good as Carson Wentz has been, the Eagles cast of characters is extremely deep and well-balanced at the skill positions. The notion of depth and balance are so important because that is what allows for a creativity in game-planning each week, being able to target pieces into whatever weaknesses the opposition has (and you might want to go back and review the pre-season take on them one more time, and how much it means to be able to use Nelson Algholor in the slot, which puts real pressure on those defenses).

There is plenty of depth at RB, WR and even TE, where Trey Burton stepped up his game big-time against the Rams when Zach Ertz could not go. That means that if the dropoff from Wentz to Foles is not too great, the Philadelphia offense will be fine. And when viewing the Foles career numbers, and that respectable 88.1 passer rating, it does bring that appearance. But it isn’t that easy.

To understand Foles properly requires putting the 2013 season into perspective, which was a major handicapping challenge both as it unfolded, and attaching the proper weight to it in the aftermath. The debut season of Chip Kelly brought a cataclysm to traditional NFL evaluation, his tempo and tactics appearing to be overmatched early, when the Eagles were learning their way around, a 3-5 SU and ATS opening that including a horrific 52-20 drubbing at Denver. But it was a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS run over the second half of the campaign to earna playoff spot, which included Foles running the offense with aplomb, compiling a spectacular 119.2 passer rating.





How good was that 119.2? Let’s look at the last five seasons, listing all QBs that have checked in with a 110 or better:

Foles 2013 119.2
Ryan 2016 117.1
P. Manning 2013 115.1
Romo 2014 113.2
Brady 2016 112.2
Rodgers 2014 112.2
Wilson 2015 110.1

That is nice company. But now the problem – how much of that was Foles being good, and how much of it came from opposing defenses struggling to adapt vs. the Kelly system? What happens if we separate that season from the rest of Foles’ career? This happens:

Com% YPP TD INT PR
2013 64.0 9.1 27 2 119.2
All Else 59.4 6.5 29 25 78.0

There is an irony in him falling right on 78.0 in those other games, because there are two QBs sitting on that same number for 2017. So begin the drumroll, wait for the curtain to rise, and who are those two QBs? Joe Flacco and Brett Hundley. That is the level that Foles has played at outside of the dramatic 2013 run.

Passer Ratings are not golfer’s cores, of course. They are a representation of the entire offense, and the separation between the QB play and the supporting cast requires some finesse. I like the Philly cast and I believe that all things considered Foles may not be too far below league average, based on how far that bar has been lowered in 2017. I have made a downgrade in the range of 3 to 3.5 for the Eagles offense, which is a bit lower than I have seen from a couple of oddsmakers.

There will be much talk across the Sports Mediaverse this week about those Foles career stats, and when it happens keep that above chart handy; it offers a necessary perspective that the overall numbers don’t show. The reason for my adjustment still being lower than most isn’t so much that I like Foles, but instead it being those nice Wentz numbers not just a sign of his ability, but of a talented and versatile supporting cast around him.

As we move on this week, we are not done with Flacco and Hundley yet either, because they help to make another point…


Item: On generating a true power rating for the current Steelers defense

With Tom Brady and the Patriots on their way to town for what shapes up as a major game across the AFC playoff positioning, the Pittsburgh defense comes front and center, and it is a unit that is difficult to track. They went a fair way into the season before playing their first game with all hands on deck, which was turned into a feature topic at the time, and a case could have been made around mid-season, when all starters were there, that they were among the league’s elite.

But then injuries set in again, primarily to key cogs Joe Haden and Ryan Shazier, and they have had an awful time replacing them. Sean Spence was an unemployed free again last weekend; on Sunday he was starting against the Ravens because Shazier’s back-up, Tyler Matakevich, could not go. The CB rotations without Haden have been an on-going experiment, with not much of it working. No team has allowed more completions of 20 yards or more since Haden went down, and on Sunday night it was five such plays for Flacco and the Ravens, while the Steeler secondary also racked up 81 yards in penalties.




You know the problem by now – the Pittsburgh full-season statistics lack relevance, yet those are the only tools available for many handicappers. Just how bad has this group been recently? Let’s set some perspective, and since the base tool of Passer Rating is a running theme today, it will be used again. Let’s look at the season charting for the last three QBs the Steelers have faced, and then look at the collective numbers they have produced against that defense:

Brett Hundley 78.0
Andy Dalton 90.4
Joe Flacco 78.0
Last Three 102.2

Now for some perspective on what 102.2 means in 2017:

Aaron Rodgers 103.2
Carson Wentz 101.9

Over the last three games, Pittsburgh has allowed the passing games of Hundley/Packers, Dalton/Bengals and Flacco/Ravens to be the equivalent of Rodgers/Packers and Wentz/Eagles. Want to have even more fun? Hundley turned in a single-game 134.3 on a Sunday night in Pittsburgh a few weeks ago. Over the last three seasons, working with mostly the same supporting cast, Rodgers has only topped that four times in 37 starts (he has made 38, but was injured so early vs the Vikings back in mid-October that I don’t count that game).


Item: The Titans gained 3.6 per play in perfect conditions at Arizona
Sub-Item: The Colts & Bills combined for 4.0 in the snow

The last QB to have a bad game against the Steelers was Marcus Mariota on a Thursday night a month ago, which naturally calls for some perspective in terms of how these four interceptions impacted the Pittsburgh numbers – these days Mariota is making a lot of defenses look good.

When the prelude to Titans/Steelers was made a feature point here, the focus was on how I questioned the coaching acumen of Mullarkey/Robiskie/Michael in terms of developing a talented young QB, and now the questions become even more pronounced in the wake of a humbling loss to Arizona. In perfect conditions against a good but not great defense, the Tennessee offense managed 3.6 yards per play. In that constant snow at Buffalo twhich made passing almost impossible, the Colts & Bills combined to average 4.0 (and needless to say those stats don't belong in any database anywhere, being of zero predictive value).

This was the season in which the Titans expected to take a major step forward, and while they are still in a prime position to qualify for the playoffs, it certainly has not been a result of the passing game. The Mariota career arc is an ominous one.

YPP TD% INT% PR
2015 7.6 5.1 2.7 91.5
2016 7.6 5.8 2.0 95.6
2017 7.2 2.8 2.9 76.9

Was his talent over-rated? I don’t believe so. Should the lack of development be put on the coaching staff? That is how I am charting it. It appears as though the coaches are starting to feel it themselves, including this awkward take from Mullarkey in Sunday’s post-game:
“Let me, again, look at the film. I’m not as astute at exactly everything as you guys are, watching it with the naked eye. I like watching the tape a few times, and I’ll comment on it tomorrow.”

When the coaches are that way the players can’t help but feel it. How about TE Delanie Walker, when asked if it was time to change things up: “I’m not the coach. I really don’t know. That’s a question for the coach. I just go out there and do what they call, pretty much.”

The biggest issue stems when the QB loses confidence, because that is also something that permeates throughout the offense huddle, which takes us to this from Mariota: “I’ve been hurting our team. I’ve got to find a way to get better and improve on it.”

The Titans are sitting on a wild card spot, yet find themselves underdogs against a team with a 3-10 record. Yet for now that simply may be the proper way of pricing it, because the case can again be made that the 49ers may think of themselves as 2-0, instead of what the full-season standings indicate…


Item: Time for a brief re-visit to San Francisco

This concept got introduced last Monday, the notion that the 49ers were going to head to Houston with far more energy than a 2-10 team ordinarily would late in the season, with a win in Chicago in the first game with Jimmy Garropolo being worth far more than a single “W”, it instead representing the first game into what can be a bright future.

But now let’s walk things back a bit. Yes, there is the buzz that a new QB can bring to the table, especially with victories attached, but might the excitement level be going a bit too far? The 49er offense did not score a touchdown against an average Bears defense, and on Sunday they were not only up against a short-handed Texans stop unit, but also handed Tom Savage and T.J. Yates when Houston had the ball.

The door is open for that momentum to continue this week because of the Tennessee struggles, but the fact that San Francisco is favored also makes this a bit of a bandwagon situation. Following this is a home game against the Jaguars and then a road trip to face the Rams, and it may well be possible that if the 49ers win again this week, the gears may shift – instead of buying in early on an under-valued commodity, they could quickly leap across the market perceptions to being overpriced.

But attitude really does matter in the late-season, on both ends of the spectrum…


Item: Did the Bengals and Redskins lose faith completely, or bottom out already

When big dreams evaporate there can be a struggle for teams to adjust. That isn’t news; it happens just about every season in every sport, and the consequences we deal with are assessing those various moods. But there is also a fine line between a team losing heart and performing at a lower level, and a team crashing completely, which can create a bounce-back mode.

That notion has been discussed here with the Broncos, who still have a first-rate defense despite the shortcoming on the other side of the ball, and that defense may have gone front their rock-bottom moment into a spark that will carry through the remainder of the season. I will bring that into the lead on Thursday as a talking point for their matchup against the Colts. Now the focus turns to two teams that were in position to crash this past week, the Redskins and Bengals both seeing their playoff hopes fully extinguished by losses to major division rivals, and coming out dead flat vs. non-division opponents.

They both crashed. And crash is not an understatement; those were disastrous showings. Washington trailed 30-6 in the third quarter at LAC before the Chargers backed off and coasted. Total offense was 488-201 and could have been worse. Cincinnati was pummeled 33-7 by the Bears and it was every bit of that, Chicago leading 482-234 in total offense.

It begs a major question now – are these teams that have lost their way for the remainder of 2017, or were those performances so inept that professional pride can create a bounce back? This is not something that will come out of the numbers, but instead require deep dives into the mindsets of the players and coaches as the week unfolds.

The one thing I believe we can be confident of is in labeling the Sunday outcomes as teams that literally quit. Here is a good take from Brian Mitchell, who covers the Redskins now for a local Washington affiliate after having played for them in 10 of his 14 NFL seasons, a length of time that certifies him as someone that knows what he is talking about:

“I was wondering, will this team go out and play like it meant something to ’em. And as I look at this thing, I think that it didn’t mean something to a lot of people on this football team. I have the mind-set now — and I hope every player and every coach on that team sees this — if you don’t give a damn, why should I? And I think a lot of fans are starting to feel that way.

“To me, either the message is getting lost or not being given, or the players just don’t listen to the message anymore. Because I can’t see two weeks of performances like this and [think] players really care about the message, or they’re hearing a message. I can’t see that.”





And as for the Bengals there is a gamut of quick hitters that are right on point. Marvin Lewis: “I am shocked.” Andy Dalton: “We didn’t have a lot of energy.” George Iloka: “Effort and execution, that’s the headline. We came out flat.” Brandon LaFell: “We laid an egg.”

Had those two teams played poorly and lost, there could easily have been carry-over into lethargy down the stretch. But they were so utterly inept that it may be a different story – was it so bad that some professional pride might kick in this week? I believe that is something worth studying, because the market reactions against the teams have been substantial (the Bengals have not been as high as +11 since 2008).


Item: Damiere Byrd caught 5 passes for Carolina (don’t yawn)

Just a quickie here at the end of a long ride, but there is something from the Sunday box scores that one could easily glide right past that I believe matters – those five catches for Byrd against a good Viking defense may be significant.

Here’s is the gist – the Panthers have had a woeful time getting production out of the WR slot across from Devin Funchess, who himself won’t be threatening for a Pro Bowl spot any time soon. They got a bad break after the trading of Kelvin Benjamin when Curtis Samuel was lost to injury, and just didn’t have many options left. Prior to Byrd having those five catches on Sunday he only had one in his NFL career.

While those Byrd receptions only went for 37 yards, it was the fact that they were able to get production at all out of the slot that can be so important going forward. They did have Greg Olsen back on the field vs. the Vikings, though you have to go beyond the box score for that because he did not catch a pass (he played 59 of the 63 snaps), and that means a lot more options available than what had previously been the case.

That forces the Green Bay defense to have to account for much more this week than has previously been the case for Carolina opponents, and I will bring some of that into play tomorrow, as it becomes time to ponder whether or not it becomes Mr. Rodgers neighborhood again. Byrd’s Sunday showing was a key detail that should not be neglected, even if the box scores were a bit secondary across the Monday table…


Vegas: Monday with the Review Journal NFL box sore page

While the NFL board ahead brings a lot of shuffling in the numbers because of the QB transitions, there wasn’t an easier Monday decision to be made all season on the food front. Lotus of Siam is open again, albeit not in the old digs in Commercial Center, which are still being renovated after some heavy rains damaged the ceiling beyond quick repair in September, but at 620 East Flamingo Road.

My relationship with the cooking of Saipin Chutima, and then with Saipin, her husband Bill, and daughters Penny and Sabrina, has been a special one through the years. How special? The guesstimate is that I have had around 750 meals from that kitchen. That number may sound a bit preposterous but here is how the accumulation has taken place – until they were forced to close earlier this fall, every one of my football weekends since shortly after the turn of the millennium was “catered” by Lotus, some of the best Thai food in the world as my sustenance through those hectic cycles.

The routine got broken in September, and it did have a life impact, not just missing the food but the people as well, many of the staff having become family over time. Late morning every autumn Friday I would stop over to place the weekend order, also a way of keeping up on the life events of those that work there, and then run a few errands while it was being prepared (I have even had mail left for me there, folks knowing that is one place where it would find me). Since they are often busy around those times, especially when there is a major convention in town, I was also given the quick training to place my own orders in their touch-screen system, signing in as “Mr. David”.

Saipin’s cooking got major exposure across the food world when Jonathan Gold wrote an article for Gourmet Magazine that brought a headline of “The Best Thai Rest Restaurant in North America”, and the esteem she is held in also led to a James Beard award in 2011. Yet in four years of Monday box score lunches this is the first time I have been there, largely because until recently the football weekends saw me working my way through 4-6 Lotus entrees, not just the dynamic flavors but also the light and healthy touch being an ideal way to stay alert and fresh through the busy game days.



There isn’t anything on the current menu that I haven’t had multiple times, so the Monday decision was sparked by a dish that helps to explain that remarkable touch Saipin has in creating arrays of flavor and texture. A “Crispy Catfish Salad” once again brought flawlessly fried pieces of fish with no hint of grease, and then ingredients across the spectrum with a healthy vibrancy – there is a bed of finely shredded cabbage to support red onions, scallions, ginger, carrots, peanuts, cashew nuts, match sticks of green apple and a tart/spicy dressing from a base of fresh lime juice and Thai chilis. There is so much going on among the fresh ingredients, but a deft touch as subtle as using celery leaves to bring an earthiness helps to balance it all out.

Here is what you should do with this dish, and most of their fresh salads – order it a spice level above what you usually would, and add a side order of brown rice. Using the rice as a pillow helps to set off the other flavors even more, and it is when you get to the higher levels of the heat scale that Saipin’s inspirations are best showcased, as is the case across much of the Thai cuisine spectrum. And if one of the bites is too hot, that is what the cream in the Thai tea is for. Their scale runs 1-10, and the difference between a “5” and a “7” is not just adding a little more heat, but instead re-thinking the dish in full balance, the higher heat also calling for a different distribution of the other ingredients.

The new Lotus location does not have a liquor license yet, so one of the best lists of Rieslings to be found anywhere is not available, but it should not take long, and the old location will also be back up early in 2018. For now I can appreciate having the football weekends return to that special old routine, this Friday marking that return (and in time for one of the most hectic New Year’s weekends I can recall, which may lead to the largest carry-out order ever from them).




If you want to know when PB is ready to go each day, as well as following along for some of the most important Sports Betting news as in unfolds, make @Vegaspointblank a part of your routine.