Originally posted on 10/25/2017:

It looks like Fernando Alonso will be taking a starting grid penalty for new engine parts needed.

So he and Ricciardo will be starting near the rear of the field.

Best use for both is to take some fast lap money as they will very likely start the race on harder tires than the front runners and switch to softer ones when the front runners move to harder tires. Meaning if the fast lap is set soon after tire stops, Ricciardo should be a very good chance of nabbing it. And Alonso should be some chance too with a brand new spec Honda engine loaded in the back and same tire strategy.

Take into account that fast lap has been set near the end of the race more often than after final pit stops this year, and don't go big. But they will be good bets for fast lap.

Unfortunately the books have puckered their arses and got scared of this angle with Ricciardo and have made his odds an eye watering 4.50 (+350) so i wont be taking any of that for that for now. Will wait and hope he moves to more realistic +600 range.

I am throwing a half unit on Alonso for fast lap +3300 right now as expect those odds will get worse if anything.

If Verstappen practices as well as I expect he will 9.00 (+800) is likely to be the best fast lap odds we will see for him. Still tossing up how much to bet but think I'll take him now too.


Another Alonso issue is that he appears to be priced into the Top 10 market as if he has no penalty coming still. (which is valid as no penalty has been announced) And this leaves a hole in that market to take a longshot. A Williams, or Alonso's team mate VanDorne are most likely to 'replace' Alonso in the top 10 and are all attractive odds. I'm taking a unit on Vandorne Top 10 +137 myself.


Both Versatppen's win odds at 5.50 (+450) and Ricciardos Fast Lap odds at 4.50 (+350) are way too low for me to take right now but hoping as the weekend progresses we will gt better odds on both for those and I'll jump then.


One last thing.

If your book offers practice market betting there appears to be some value possibilities in Practice 1 odds this week. The books usually have Hamilton more like 1.80 (-120) for fastest in P1 but have opened with 2.62 (+162) this week. And I agree with them!

Just not sure who is best option but will be taking one of the long shots for fastest in P1 this race. Probably Verstappen and Perez.