Originally posted on 10/21/2017:

I suppose this is a good place for a history lesson. Back in the late 50's computers were beginning to find their way into business and scientific use. This was facilitated by the development of higher level languages for programming. The two most prominent ones were COBOL and Fortran, one for business and the other for scientific applications. There were also different types of computers, again one for business and the other for scientific applications. By the early 60's IBM designed the System 360 computer family to span both communities. Along with it came a new operating system, OS/360. (I was fortunate to be able to work on its development.)

They also decided to develop a new programming language and called it PL/I. It was a better technology, combining features of both COBOL and Fortran, so it could be used for both business and scientific applications.

OS/360 fncluded a new job entry sub-system. But, the development of OS/360 fell woefully behind in some areas, including this one. So a couple of IBM software engineers in Houston wrote their own. They called it HASP (Houston Automatic Spooling Priority Program). It found widespread use. IBM decided HASP was a better approach (much to the chagrin of the guys in the next cubicle who were working on the original) and again wanted to overcome some technical shortcomings so they developed ASP.

I subsequently joined a company who bought completely in to the IBM vision and chose to use PL/I and ASP. In hindsight, this was a mistake. By then, 90% of the world had been using the older stuff and decided to stick with it. We were always behind in the development cycle and had a hard time finding people trained in the software we used.

So what does this have to do with bitcoins and alt-coins? I was reminded of this history when I decided to try to understand the underlying technology of the alt-coins. Yep, they are addressing some shortcomings of bitcoin. But the history I experienced taught me one thing. Sometimes being first beats being better. I suspect this will apply to bitcoins and alt-coins.

I doubt that anyone here has the technical ability to pick the best long term technology. But it probably won't matter. We're primarily interested in this crypto-currency stuff as investments anyway. Long term these alt-coins will likely end up in the dust bin of history. Bitcoins will not.

There is another old gambling saying that I like. "The race doesn't always go to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet."