Originally posted on 08/24/2017:

I compute the expected return. First you need to convert the American line to the European version. In this case your local book's lines would be Arizona 1.70 NYM 2.23. Then multiply your estimate times these to get the expected return on each side.

Arizona .6*1.70=$1.02 NY Mets=.4*2.23=$0.89

The obvious wager would be Arizona with an expected return on $1.02. Personally, I don't wager on anything with expected return less than $1.05 or more comfortably $1.10. If the expected return goes above say $1.25, I'm leary of the wager. Obviously my calculations are for a game with something askew (maybe a star player out).