Originally <a href='https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=27232086'>posted</a> on 09/25/2017:



I often address the "early opener" when talking about the market.

I know all about it BigDaddy, but you can pretend to know all day long. I think BigDaddy recently read a book, some of his info is outdated.

Also, things really have changed over the years and that early opener and subsequent trades do get reported. Sometimes I do my best to make calls to verify the information.

Trying to follow what you think sharp money is doing and trying to be accessible to that sharp info is nowhere near as valuable as creating your own line that reflects reality better than the line the books can or want to hang.

Again, understanding why the line opens where it opens and moves to where it closes is what it takes. It has nothing to do with recognizing something in your gut that tells you it's right or wrong.

That kind of behavior is certain to lead the bettor into emotional territory that is not necessary to win and is in fact one of the harmful things to bettors.

BigDaddy, you may get a bit about what people with large money will bet, but don't mistake them for those beating the market and moving the lines. They are not always the same people.