[KVB]

Originally <a href='https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=27211453'>posted</a> on 09/16/2017:

...the long term sharp forecasts…

Toronto wins with 24 or 25 points to Edmonton’s 20 points...

The stacking forecast, which is an adjusted score, shows the following:

There is a 27-27 tie between Edmonton and Toronto with Toronto getting about a translated half point moneyline edge...

This stacking forecast has changed. The updated stacking forecast has Toronto winning with 28 points to Edmonton’s 24 points.

The Non predictive public gauge as of now, but this could change slightly...
Edmonton 27, Toronto 25...

This line opened early at pick ‘em and quickly moved toward Edmonton, away from the sharp forecast, and most houses picked it up as high as Edmonton -2.5.

I mentioned early that line moves would be suspect this week as well as a correction in the sharp forecast to continue from last week. While the line moves away from the sharp and stacking forecast, I can identify sharp analyst pressure on Edmonton…

...the early notion I wrote above about pressure on Hamilton has little to do with Hamilton and more to do with the spot they are in tonight. It is market moving money for sure, but now it’s combined with the public...

This pressure is similar to the losing pressure on Hamilton last night in that it has less to do with the team and more about the spot they are in today. The difference here is that the money is more split. This Edmonton pressure could pay this time.

I think Edmonton -2.5 and the accompanying moneyline were a good play but we’ve seen some more movement on Edmonton. Now that the line has reached -4 the late Edmonton money is at real risk.

Because of the situation indicating a correction and because it is easy to counter the now upset moneyline sharp forecast, pressure is building on Edmonton. It is very possible that may see a result against the sharp forecast that has been rare.

We could see the sharp forecast fail against the moneyline but succeed against the spread. In other words, Toronto could lose yet still cover the spread.

There have been two instances where the sharp forecast has differed with the moneyline and spread. In both instances, the predicted favorite won the game, but didn’t cover the spread. In one of those games, in week 5, predicted Edmonton pushed the opener of -3 and didn’t cover the closing -3.5. The other game was in week 6, when forecasted Winnipeg won by 1 point, not covering the spread.

This first game could be the first time the sharp forecast predicts an upset against the closer, fails on the moneyline, but succeeds on the spread.

Why do I write all this? I write it because I have mentioned all week that this is a suspicious week of movement. This is the type of week and the type of game where we see this type of result.

The first game sent the line in what became the wrong direction, as predicted. Now, I am suggesting an Edmonton win and not cover. I’m passing on any bold plays as the line has moved into true long term value for Toronto against the spread and I see no need to press it in this market.

Once again some specific analysis for the game, let’s see if it works out as well as yesterday.

[KVB]

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