Originally posted on 09/06/2017:

Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
Believe me. The Vegas books are way ahead of Joe Pub. Way ahead. Look what they did to all of the suckers who took UCLA on Sunday because the line started to go up. At this point in the season, they are perfectly happy with their 10% vig. As the season wears on, they will adjust. Their computers are miles ahead of anything that Joe Pub has. These lines and totals have been set for months now. Since June to be precise. All they have to do is adjust. Remember, these lines are based, for the most part, on perception. The computers try to guess what Joe Pub will do. The lines DO NOT represent the real lines. They represent what Joe Pub is going to perceive as the real line. Their is a way to separate the real line from the perceived line, but very few people know how to do that, or have the ability to do that.

I agree that the game is becoming a circus for the most part. This is because ESPN/ABC/Disney, the big losers here, have to try and recover some of their money and the best way to do so is to televise more high scoring games. They have saturated the market and people are getting tired of it. Worse than that, sponsors are getting tire of it. This is bad news for Vegas and the books, as they depend on your typical Male Macho Wanna-be's for a lot of their profit. The bottom line is that today's average male, 21-40, knows about 40% of what the average male his age know 20 years ago. These guys are lazy and basically stupid. They are afraid to do anything sober, so they get drunk and throw their money away. If Joe Pub was the "Meat" 20 years ago, these guys are Prime Filet. They are easily manipulated (see UCLA). They believe just about anything. These guys put money into the pockets of people like myself. People who are patient, know the game, and have reasonable expectations. People who do not expect to make a killing on every game. People who are willing to take 57-58% every year. People who have won over 7 figures in 20 years.

If you have a winning combination, stick with it. Adjust when needed. Be happy to hit 57-58% of the time. You will win a lot of money in the long run. Stick with it my friend. Do NOT let anyone tell you who to wager on. You do what works for you. Remember, most people in here are air bettors. They are easy to spot. They are always trying to get an extra point or so. They love to brag about how drunk they get. They are very little people with a very small chance of success at life. Treat them that way. Stick to what works for YOU, and NEVER tail anyone.
When I read in your first few sentences that you think books get 10% vig in CFB, I knew the rest of the speech would be comically erroneous as well, and sure enough, it was. If you think any Vegas corporation that has a sports book actually depends on its sports books profits when they make more in their slot machines in one week than the sports book does in a calendar year, you clearly don't know where their bread is buttered. The top corporations treat their sports books like they would a 5 year old child. They allow them to fool around and exist as just another novelty and gimmick for their customers as long as they don't ever become a major liability, which is why they're on a short leash when it comes to limits, leagues, and winning players.

By the way, perhaps you should learn a little about statistical variance if you think anyone will achieve 57-58% rates every year when the typical college football season will only produce around 200 bets a year for even the most active bettor. Even if you have a 57.5% expectation on every bet (which is ludicrous), there's a 36% chance you'd win less than 570 out of 1,000 bets, let alone only a paltry 200 game sample size.