Originally <a href='https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=27124664'>posted</a> on 08/03/2017:

The sharp forecast has Calgary winning with 30 or 31 points to Toronto’s 10 points.

The stacking forecast shows Calgary with 31 or 33 points to Toronto’s 20 points. Virtually every number has Calgary covering this spread and less sophisticated methods will show the Total closer to the market like the stacking forecast with points closer to the mid 50’s. The non-predictive public gauge shows Calgary winning 31-17.

Both the spread and the Total have moved towards the forecast and given the numbers above, it shouldn’t be surprising.

This is the first game of the week and while the market clearly seeks a settlement regarding underdogs from more than just the simple “there’s been 1 upset in three weeks” standpoint, it is the beginning of moneyflow this week. Of course, the market is also balancing out a bit from the first weeks of the season. Regardless, with the techniques the books have been throwing out there, the pendulum is set far in motion, far beyond simple balance of dogs and favorites.

Similar to the NFL playoffs, we’ve had a glimpse into how that simple streak in the public eye can also have hidden in the market other money stacked.

This is one reason that I am putting the stacking percentages forecast out there. We can see how the market lines up (like with Totals today) with the two sharper forecasts and then use that data. I’ll post some records and stats soon.

Anyway, Calgary has covered as a favorite twice but we should remember that in Week 5, the sharp forecast was influenced by some stats giving Saskatchewan the big win. Outside of that, the numbers were with Calgary by far.

Those Calgary bettors following the large numbers are emboldened and so is the public that bets them. This actually could show a ripe time for an upset and while it seems crazy to counter Calgary after last week, that line opened pretty low.

Metrics are still screaming a bit here and I would caution against Calgary. I’ll be honest, I’m not on top of some market data that would help us refine the probabilities and lead us to a better decision regarding the moneyline.

Because of the line movement, however, in this particular environment, I did pick up Toronto Argonauts +6 (-105) over Calgary Stampeders for the trading account. I realize it’s the first game of the week and will accept that risk for this line and price.

Good Luck.