Originally Posted by
gadzooks
Hi all, I'm fairly new to sports betting and I have a few questions after looking over this system and thread.
1) Wallco, how did you come up with this system? Or a more general question, how does anyone come up with a system like this? For example, for v1, did you just think to yourself "hmm perhaps it is profitable to bet against teams that have been on a 3 game winning streak because streaks aren't sustainable / players get tired" and then start testing it? Or is there more to it?
2) Is this system something of a perfect version, or could minor tweaks yield unknown (perhaps even more profitable) results? For example, adjusting v1 or v2 to look for winning / losing streaks of 2 or 4 rather than 3. Or adjusting the amount of games we chase a profit (from 3 to X). Or perhaps not counting a shootout win towards a win streak, just as a wacky example.
3) What are the chances sports books have seen this thread and are now adjusting their odds to make this system less profitable?
4) What are the chances there are very simple "systems" out there that are profitable? As some nutty examples that probably aren't profitable (but in my mind, could be): Betting on every underdog listed above +130 all season long, or betting on every team whose previous game was a shutout, or betting on every team whose previous game was a win as an underdog, etc.
Sorry if my questions are dumb, but again I'm new and I'm trying to get a grasp of how everything works. Thanks!