Originally posted on 07/26/2016:

[QUOTE=Rich Benjamins;26052496]Good point. Don't bet on fighters that haven't proved consistency/reliability.

But how would you categorize Rockhold losing to Bisping? Rockhold seemed consistent. But maybe attaining the belt messed with his head like what's been happening lately to new champions. Or Henderson beating Lombard, who could've imagined that? Velasquez losing to Verdum. Rothwell KOing Overeem, Overeem KOing JDS, then JDS beating Rothwell.

Then you have rules you make after experiencing shit. So an amateur mma bettor will bet on a heavyweight.Francis ngannou was also an exception to the rule as he faced basically a medioce light hevy weight and also is a top level talent. I bet on Alistair overeem to beat andrei arlovsky. He has not shown consistency in the ufc, but suddenly he became an conservative out fighter, a bit because of his KO losses. Then you may bet on a heavy weight fighter, but thats an exception to the rule. The rule is not bet heavy weight fighter so that one is rather easy. Most of your examples where heavy weight fighters.

So to the Rockhold vs Bisping. Difficult, i didnt bet that fight because of the price. Rule is:

1. Is the fighter consistent/matchup/style matchup
2.Price
3.Tope level talent.

So Rockhold bisping was a typical do not like the price, so rule number 3. But, lets say the price was good. Like 1.35 for rochkhold or better. Than you would probably have lost. But, nothing is without a risk. You cant predict the upset of the year? But is that my point? No. My point is that everytime you bet, you look at those three rules. You will win 85% of the time? How much do you really care loosing that one bet on upset of all time, or upset of the year? Let me answer that question for you. 0, nothing, i dont care, no one cares. All bets involve risk, your job is to eliminate risk as much as possible, youre not god. We cant predict everything.

Lombard/Henderson is a clear no bet. It could end both ways, maximum a parlay on lombard for small money. Cant bet against henderson, as henderson opposes the consistency rule, he consistently KO people out, so you cant challenge him.

Valesquez is a heavyweight coming from a long lay off, near 2 year. I have a rule when it comes to ring rust. most fighters will have ring rust over 1.5 year and up. So that will def be a high risk fight, but the rule doesnt say anything about layoff so thats an experience thing, that most podcast or breakdowns will explain. If you oppose all of those alarm bells chiming, then youre an idiot.

All of the new champions, had huge red flags. rousey? -1200, huge risk to lay. Rafael dos anjos -400 against another champ? Huge risk. no surprise if youre sane. Having consistent losses in MMA shouldnt happen. We know so much now. Just elminate fakk ups, go for consistency and accept the times rockhold looses against the bispings.