[KVB]

Originally <a href='http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=25987234'>posted</a> on 07/10/2016:

KVB, can you give 1 or 2 examples of what you mean? Probably it would clear that mud out of the way

Actually, depending on which examples you are looking for, this is best taught as the markets and season unfolds, real time.

...Because a book lists a team at -200 does not automatically make that book twice as favored mathematically to win over a team at +100. It's just the bookmakers forced opinion based on marketplace and its environment...

Certain times of the year this really stands out. One of the best betting weekends of the year for me is often Super Bowl weekend. The NCAA Hoops markets are loaded with unsophisticated money that most certainly influences the lines to be a bit out of whack.

Anymore, the swell during March Madness is evident but you have to be more patient. If you made it to Super Bowl Saturday, you already were patient.

Remember Michigan State in the NCAA Tourney? That line opened at 17.5 (which was way too high) and it stayed there. The money line was nowhere near representative of reality if each team plays a competitive game. I build a line with a different type of dynamic for outlier events like the Tourney and I knew I had the sharp line with a much, much closer game.

The moneyline was far out of where it should have been and I know the books knew it.

Despite that, it was reported to be one of the most heavily bet games and goes down as one of the biggest upsets in history. It wouldn’t have, had the line been smaller.

Maybe a tangent here, but what makes an upset? Is it because the market has a favorite? What about when the higher ranked team is an underdog…which, again, we see at times like the NCAA Tourney…which one is the upset?

Sometimes broadcasters play it off as one team is the favorite even if the line says otherwise.

What if it’s money? It seems rational to think that if Michigan State had been favored by less, with a smaller moneyline, but not so small to tip the scales, even more bettors and money would have fallen when they lost. But with a smaller line, even though more bettors lost more money, would they have called it a bigger upset?

Not likely.

These muddy definitions are a part of sportsbetting, separate from the math, it’s just the way it is and a part of how you view the markets.