[Hugo de Naranja]

Originally posted on 06/23/2016:

Also one thing to keep in mind is Frankie is bitter. He aims for that Conor payday but couldnt get it. Now he needs to make a statement against an aging fighter that has been bingod cleanly.

I don't think things like a guy "needing a win" or "being bitter about not getting a payday" have much of an effect on how fights play out. You think Frankie didn't want to win the first fight against Aldo really badly? You think Aldo doesn't want to make a statement coming off his first loss in a decade? Such considerations don't change how a fighter matches up with an opponent and bettors often give too much significance.

Look at Pettis for example. He was a worldbeater at LW before getting embarrassed by Dos Anjos. He "needed a win" against Alvarez to get another title shot. After that fight, he "needed a win" against Barboza to still be considered an elite fighter. Just last weekend, Rory Macdonald would have helped his life situation greatly by beating Wonderboy and increasing his value before he goes to free agency. Did that change how he matched up against his opponent and help him win? No, not at all. My point is that fighters are almost always coming to the octagon and doing their damnedest to get the job done, regardless of external factors so we shouldn't let these factors influence how we bet fights.