Originally <a href='http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=25439855'>posted</a> on 03/14/2016:

For the Cleveland vs. Utah game the line may seem fishy, but perhaps not for why you would expect. Here’s the run down, the non-predictive and unsophisticated players have a four point game, with Cleveland favored, with a total in the low 190’s. The sharper more sophisticated models, including those that go around the block to get next door, show Cleveland winning by 5 points with a higher total, more like low 200’s.

For the total the Over should be a good bet, however it opened a little low considering the pressures I see on the Over. That said, even though pressure still lies on the Over, the line seems to want to tick downward. This is tough to read as this condition leads different groups in different directions; remember: there are many ways to handicap.

The total is splitting the money and basically a sharp line that is off a little, which might be tough for some readers to reconcile. I suggest passing on the total as more information can be obtained by the result, giving us a future opportunity.

Now back to the line. It is clear from the first paragraph that this line is actually pretty sharp. The public may like Cleveland due to recent performance and they are putting pressure on the favorite. It opened at 3 points and has since grown to 4 and I wouldn’t be surprised if the line moves towards 5 or 6 points.

The line opened low to draw some of that favorite money as I can identify pressures on the underdog from certain sharp, market moving market analysts.

Keeping this line between 4 and 6 will sideline certain groups of influential money.

This is where JJ’s fishiness actually comes into play. The oddsmakers knew about the underdog pressure coming, opened a little low to mitigate the pressure, yet knew where the line was headed. The effort to sideline certain groups indicated to me that the underdog is the play here as the books play into the sharp analysts’ hands at the expensive of the public and the decent cappers who either gamble on the game or pass.

Wait for the best line to come, probably 5 or 5.5, and then play against the steam created with Utah plus the points.

Tonight the thin air just may get to Cavaliers.



Good Luck.