Originally posted on 02/21/2016:

Quote Originally Posted by korkysixty9 View Post
Ferroviária 22 : 30 Corinthians

Corinthians usually win me a few quid, always back them at home and the odd away, had a couple of injury time winners recently too which isn't good for the nerves

away tonight and i don't know much about their opponents other than they only appear to compete in the paulista?
their last 12 homes is an impressive 11 wins & 1 draw and current odds are a tasty 3/1 (4) to win
Corinthians evens (2) and 23/10 (3.3) the draw

any tips/advice on this or is it best to leave this alone
This is actually an interesting match up to a degree. There are some cases to be made for both sides here, but as square as it sounds, I would lean towards taking Corinthians -.5 +120 and under 2 and 2.5 -103. Sure, betting these means if Ferroviara happens to get a single goal, you're condemned to hoping for a split at best (which is unappealing), but, that's soccer sometimes.

This is probably Ferroviara's biggest game this century, as this is their first year of playing in the Paulista 1A for 20 years. They were in the third tier of the Paulista just 6 years ago. So, while they usually get about 2500 people for a game, they have a stadium that can hold 20,000, and I'm assuming they'll get a big crowd, but it probably will have as many Corinthians fans if not more than their own. Nevertheless, it's a big big game for the club. As far as who will play for Ferroviaria, I only really know 2 players. One is striker Samuel, who is on loan from Fluminenense, and is a capable striker, although not spectacular, and they have veteran midfielder in Rafael Miranda, who was a starter for Maritimo in Portugal a few years ago. Other than that, its a collection of kids and journeymen. They have a young striker named Rafinha who has found the net 3 times already in this young season, but this is a step up in class.

As far as Corinthians goes, I wonder how much they even care about games like these, as with the 2016 version of the Paulista being played in groups of 5 with the top 2 of each group making the playoffs, they are a virtual lock to advance. This group stage is so weird, that you play 15 games against everybody EXCEPT the other 4 teams in your own group. However, they have no Copa Libertadores matches till March, so what else do they have to do till then? Everyone is well aware of the Corinthians big names that left the team, such as Vagner Love, Jadson, Augusto,and Ralf, but they were all over 30 and they wanted to cash in while they could, just as Guerrero and Emerson did. However, there is still plenty of good players on this Corinthians side, and they have decent strikers with Andre, Romero, and Luciano, and while it's asking a lot for Guilherme to return to the goal scoring machine he was for Cruziero way back in '08, I can't believe he's completely washed up at 27. Let's not ignore that Corinthians is still very good in midfield with Elias, Henrique, and Danilo, and the back 4 is capable, with many still there from last years title winning club. And of course, you still have Cassio in goal, who is one of Brazil's best.

It's hard to gauge a game like this, as you never know if Corinthians is going to just go through the motions or not, but considering they've only allowed 1 goal in their first 5 games this year, and they are definitely the better squad here, I don't think backing Corinthians and Under is a bad play here, as I don't see Ferroviaria putting more than 1 past Cassio today. But you never know. This is a REALLY REALLY BIG game for the Ferroviara club, as they have not played in the top division of the Paulista since 1996. However, I'm taking Corinthians -.5 +120, and Under 2 and 2.5 -103.