Originally posted on 01/17/2016:

Last season, Seattle went 13-3 and hosted Carolina in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The Seahawks closed as a 13½-point choice and ended up winning 31-17 and covering the number in the process. However, that game was 14-10 in favor of the Seahawks going to the fourth quarter. Most would have sold their bet for 20 cents on the dollar at that point because it looked like an upset was in the making. By some miracle, Seattle scored two TD’s inside of six minutes left and those that backed the Seahawks got a gift that they have forgotten about. Well, this year the venue switches, the Seahawks are worse and the Panthers are much better. Carolina now comes into this game after a 15-1 season and if the roles were reversed, that being Seattle being 15-1 and hosting this playoff game, the oddsmakers would have been forced to make Seattle at least a 7-point choice.
Much is being prepared about the Seahawks defense over the past six weeks so let’s have a closer look at that. Seattle held five of the last six teams they faced to nine points or fewer. You’ll have to excuse us while we s#!t in our pants in awe of that defense. The five teams they faced were Minnesota, Cleveland, Baltimore (minus Flacco), a completely disinterested Arizona squad in the final week of the season and finally Minnesota again last week in frigid temperatures. Right in the middle of those games, Seattle faced an anemic St. Louis offense and surrendered 23 points in a six-point loss. Prior to that, Seattle was torched for a combined 69 points by Pittsburgh and Arizona. We’re not saying that the Seahawks defense is poor but we are saying mass media is overemphasizing a lot of grossly twisted numbers and because if it, all we have to spot is 2½ points.
Carolina went 8-0 at home. In their last four home games, the Panthers scored 37, 44, 38 and 38 points respectively. That came against Green Bay, Washington, Atlanta and Tampa Bay. Yeah, we know you’re thinking those numbers are twisted also and they probably are. The difference, however, is that the market gives all the credit in the world to the Seahawks for skewed defensive numbers and none to the Panthers for skewed offensive numbers. In other words, those skewed numbers get applied to the Panthers but not to the Seahawks.
The bash on Carolina was that it couldn't beat a physical, downhill team, couldn't win a big game away from BkofAma Stadium and couldn't conquer the postseason. Big wins all season both at home and on the road have veered those demons and now they have one more to veer with that being a post-season win. From our view, Carolina has been the better team all season long. They were on the verge of defeating the Seahawks last year in Seattle in the playoffs and so they have paid their dues. It’s time to recognize that Cam Newton is as good as any QB in the league and superior to Russell Wilson. If Newton doesn’t get you with his arm, he’ll get you with his feet. We won't deny that this game could go either way, as it’s football and strange things that no crystal ball in the world can predict might occur. However, if we’re sticking to playing value, then the right bet here is the home team spotting 2½ points because of all the elements stated above. This market loves the Seahawks to pieces and we’ll attempt to take advantage of that.
CAROLINA -2½